Hurricane Emily Advisories

[Brent]

If there was that much of a more northerly type of component, they sure did not change the track.

The Mexican landfall point seems to be about 8 miles more northward... LOL

[cycloneye]

The error continues as at graphic the watches and warnings dont appear.

[stormie_skies]

I think that was a few hours back, at least as far as the movement. Recently it has taken the typical jogs back to the west.

If there was that much of a more northerly type of component, they sure did not change the track.

Hey, Im just going by the discussion & advisory, which I am assuming is an average of its movement in the last 3 hours...

THE INITIAL MOTION IS JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK... NOW ESTIMATED AT 295/16. THIS EXTRAPOLATED MOTION IS USED
TO CONSTRUCT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK OUT TO ABOUT 36 HOURS...

[deltadog03]

yeah, i think you can clearly see the uncertainty in there writings...i don't blame them...cuz we don't know...interestingly enough...it seems like the past couple of advisories keep showing more of a northerly component...now 295...we will see.

[senorpepr]

FYI, recon just reported 153kt at flight level. 158.6 mph on the surface.

[Normandy]

category 5 hurricane.

[mike18xx]

I don't think they'll give her the label unless it looks like she can keep it; i.e., they'll wait until a solid reading supporting an unrounded-up 160mph at the surface, or a doughnut-of-death IR.

[HURAKAN]

If atmospheric conditions continue to be extra favorable, like it's tonight, Emily will easily reach category five before reaching the Yucatan coast.

Also, I hope she weakens a lot over the peninsula, because after she emerges over the GOM, waters will be even higher than what they are right now.

[Hurricaneman]

That thought is scary

[Normandy]

Cozumel and Cancun are going to get LEVELED if it goes on the track.

[Hurricane Cheese]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 170551
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005

...CATEGORY FOUR EMILY PASSING SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...

HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA... ALL OF THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS... AND THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO
FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE... INCLUDING COZUMEL AND
THE ISLAS MUJERES. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE ON
THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CAMPECHE ON THE
WESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM
BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN
CUBA...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 81.2 WEST OR ABOUT 110
MILES... 175 KM... SOUTH OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 415
MILES... 670 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH
... 30 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER OF EMILY
WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM JAMAICA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL
BE NEAR GRAND CAYMAN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED... AND EMILY
COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE AT TIMES DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 150 MILES...240 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 943 MB...27.85 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES... ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES... ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS OF JAMAICA AND THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS WITH ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER WESTERN JAMAICA.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH LOCAL MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...17.7 N... 81.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 943 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB


$$

[Swimdude]

Pressure is up 14 mb... Doesn't surprise me at the moment. Emily couldn't maintain 155 mph. Most storms can't. Track is still WNW... Awaiting the discussion.

[Stratosphere747]

Pressure is up 14 mb... Doesn't surprise me at the moment. Emily couldn't maintain 155 mph. Most storms can't. Track is still WNW... Awaiting the discussion.

There is no discussion. This is just an advisory.

[Normandy]

Well recon found 153KT flight level winds....so it held its own.

[Hurricane Cheese]

Pressure is up 14 mb... Doesn't surprise me at the moment. Emily couldn't maintain 155 mph. Most storms can't. Track is still WNW... Awaiting the discussion.

There won't be any discussion until the 5 AM EDT update....don't know if I'll be up for that one!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The red is wraping back around...There was likely just a EWRC which just ended...Watch this storm get even stronger.

[Swimdude]

The red is wraping back around...There was likely just a EWRC which just ended...Watch this storm get even stronger.

I must admit, i'm getting antsy for a cat. 5. The difference in destruction between a cat. 5 making landfall with 160 mph winds and a cat. 4 with 155 isn't too darn much. It'll still be horrible. But i'd like to see records broken before Cozumel and Cancun are wiped off the map.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The red is wraping back around...There was likely just a EWRC which just ended...Watch this storm get even stronger.

I must admit, i'm getting antsy for a cat. 5. The difference in destruction between a cat. 5 making landfall with 160 mph winds and a cat. 4 with 155 isn't too darn much. It'll still be horrible. But i'd like to see records broken before Cozumel and Cancun are wiped off the map.

I totally agree

[mike18xx]

The difference in destruction between a cat. 5 making landfall with 160 mph winds and a cat. 4 with 155 isn't too darn much.

Maximum gusts are the most critical factor (as Andrew demonstrated) when it comes to property damage away from surge-affected areas. The ten-second maximum gust is what blows off the roofs, etc.

[wxwatcher91]

so just to confirm, EWRC everyone???

and what are your predictions for 5am advisory???