Unofficial Forecast # 6
Sunday July 17, 2005 12am Eastern
USE NHC FOR OFFICIAL INFO
Hurricane Emily is very near Category 5 status with winds of 135 kt.
A ridge of high pressure to the north should continue Hurricane Emily on a west-northwesterly track, a stairstep track to the coastline. However, a shortwave trough may create enough of a weakness in the ridge at the end of the period to help pull the Hurricane northward. Also, should the storm deepen in the Gulf, it may be drawn more poleward. My track is to the north of the NHC, taking it over the Northeast Yucatan tip, and then into the western Gulf of Mexico, and into extreme northern Mexico.
The storm should fluctuate between Category 4 and 5 intensity until landfall in the Yucatan. Some weakening may occur over the Yucatan, but conditions appear favorable for deepening in the Gulf of Mexico, not to mention the heat content is extremely high. Therefore, deepening back to a Category 4 hurricane is expected before landfall in northern Mexico.
12 Hours: 18.8 N/ 82.8 W - 135 kt
24 Hours: 20.3 N/ 85.8 W - 135 kt
36 Hours: 21.8 N/ 89.1 W - 115 kt
48 Hours: 23.0 N/ 92.1 W - 120 kt
72 Hours: 24.8 N/ 95.3 W - 130 kt
96 Hours: INLAND MEXICO - 50 kt
