Where will 99L go

boca · #1 Postby **boca** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 9:26 am

Where do you think 99L will go. Will it head towards Bermuda, SE coast,or be a fish.

#2 Postby **skysummit** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 9:27 am

I say fishy fishy.

Scorpion · #3 Postby **Scorpion** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 9:28 am

If it stays weak like it is it likely won't go north and it will stay under the high and develop. Then it might hit the SE.

#4 Postby **SkeetoBite** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 9:32 am

Wacahootaman · #5 Postby **Wacahootaman** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 9:33 am

Nacawawa.

Nah, jus kidding. :lol:

I spect if that trough is strong enough it will send it fishing but if if it doestnt keep a holt of it, it may brake off and ifin the high builds over it, it will become a named storm a headin west.

I remember Andrew was almost destroyed by a trough but broke away and then put it all together and the rest is history.

Duffy · #6 Postby **Duffy** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 9:39 am

if it says weak enough as i said, it will become franklin and hit the Southeast Coast
some of the Models are showing it doing a complete loop
they seem to be split between a Fish and a Loop, right now, so i guess we'll have to see
if it does devolop and hit land, that will make it 6 for 6 this year so far

#7 Postby **ericinmia** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 10:20 am

The reasoning was always that if it stayed weak enough the trough wouldn't be able to pull it very far north, because it was comprised of higher level clouds... where the steering layers were more conducive for a more westward movement. The trough appears to be pulling out, and the bermuda and azores' high are beginning to bridge between. This is why some models are showing the loop... for the storm will be able to continue northward for a small declining period of time. If it does not make it far enough north (past 30 north), the high will bridge and build in ontop of it... forcing it back sw and west.

Here is the model map:

Here is the link to the steering layers:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm5.html

At this point there is a good chance that only part of the storm will be sheared off to the north, and the remainder will be pushed back towards the west. However, there is a good possibilty that this will be pushed down into Hispanola/Cuba with the current and forecast position and axis of the ridge.

If the storm does ride along the southern edge of the ridge, the pressure variance/water temps would be conducive to development. Shear will be only between 0-15 knots so that shouldnt restrain the storm from development... including terms of rapid development.
-Eric

Duffy · #8 Postby **Duffy** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 10:28 am

good explanation

Scorpion · #9 Postby **Scorpion** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 10:32 am

Almost a Jeanne scenario, but further out.

Duffy · #10 Postby **Duffy** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 11:00 am

yep, we'll see
perhaps Franklin the making afterall

cajungal · #11 Postby **cajungal** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 12:38 pm

Could enter the Gulf or be a fish. We have been talking about 99L for days now and it still not even classified as a depression.

wxwatcher91 · #12 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 12:46 pm

um, I think we should focus more on "is 99L going to develop at all" rather than "where is it headed"

#13 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 12:56 pm

wxwatcher91 wrote:um, I think we should focus more on "is 99L going to develop at all" rather than "where is it headed"

I couldnt agree more. If it all it develops, then I will truly start concerning myself with which direction it will go.

<RICKY>

cajungal · #14 Postby **cajungal** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 12:56 pm

wxwatcher91 wrote:um, I think we should focus more on "is 99L going to develop at all" rather than "where is it headed"

Agreed. It may never develop at all.

#15 Postby **fci** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:28 pm

cajungal wrote:
wxwatcher91 wrote:um, I think we should focus more on "is 99L going to develop at all" rather than "where is it headed"
Agreed. It may never develop at all.

I second that .
We have been watching this "non-story" for days and the "people I disagree with" are running out of material!

Galvestongirl · #16 Postby **Galvestongirl** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:47 pm

xodancinbabi54xo · #17 Postby **xodancinbabi54xo** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 11:09 pm

I completely agree with fci

#18 Postby **ericinmia** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 11:37 pm

Interesting...

However, for anything to form it will have to move west. Anything other than that will simply result in it being torn apart. Thus, the direction that the future low and convection are moving plays a huge role in this.

If you have nothing worthwhile to say or add your opinion is not necissary. Please keep the bickering down and the polite courteous behavior up.

Thanks,
-Eric

DAVE440 · #19 Postby **DAVE440** » Sun Jul 17, 2005 3:06 am

Currently moving west....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 55W/56W S OF 19N IS MOVING W 15 TO 20 KT.

THE WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A STRONG LOW LEVEL EASTERLY SURGE AND ASSOCIATED AFRICAN DUST/DRY AIR. FURTHER NORTH... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SUN POSSIBLY PRODUCING INCREASING SHOWERS/TSTMS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM EQ-10N BETWEEN 48W-58W.

Normandy · #20 Postby **Normandy** » Sun Jul 17, 2005 3:14 am

....that doesnt look like a tropical feature at all....i think tis time to stick a fork in it.

Where will 99L go

Where will 99L go

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