H Emily Recon Reports

[Hyperstorm]

Those are not the strongest winds, yet....

I expect much higher winds in the NE qudrant. In any case, this further supports the upgrade. I exepct a category 5 at 2am IF NOT sooner...

Ummm... that was the NE quad.

Goodness! Yes, it is the NE quadrant! I somehow read the coordinates wrong. Maybe it's too late for me....

[Hurricane Cheese]

Is the NHC going to put out a special statement saying Em' has become a Cat 5??

[senorpepr]

Well... it's not official yet. However, it's very likely it will be upgraded via a special update.

[drezee]

Flight level winds aren't 1-minute winds either. There are no 1-min winds taken in recon, so what is the point? Dropsondes are however used to determine the real strength of a system. Read the NHC's own words at the bottom. I believe the real truth of the matter is that the NHC will not upgrade a borderline system, because of what it means to history. They do NOT want to second guess on this one. Either way they lose....

Actually, the MINOBS do have one-min averaged winds and 30-sec period peak winds as defined as the maximum 10-sex average wind within that 30-sec period. Of course, in the course on that one minute, they sample winds over a 5-6 mile stretch. However, this is more reliable than the dropsonde that is fall vertically.

The MINOBS are under the header URNT40. I have not seen them for Emily.

[senorpepr]

The MINOBS are under the header URNT40. I have not seen them for Emily.

NOAA MINOBS are under URNT40 KWBC.
AF MINOBS are under SXXX50 KNHC.

[senorpepr]

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 10
Flight ID: AF304
Flt Data Number: 43
Latest Ob Location: 80 mi W of Kingston, Jamaica

Ob #01: 03:28:00Z; 17.6°N 80.3°W; PA: 10030 ft; D-Value: -33 ft; Wind: ESE (122°) @ 138 mph; Max Wind: 142 mph; Temp: 44°F; Dewpt: 54°F
Ob #02: 03:28:30Z; 17.6°N 80.3°W; PA: 10013 ft; D-Value: -14 ft; Wind: SE (124°) @ 130 mph; Max Wind: 134 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 53°F
Ob #03: 03:29:00Z; 17.7°N 80.3°W; PA: 10023 ft; D-Value: 3 ft; Wind: SE (124°) @ 121 mph; Max Wind: 123 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 51°F
Ob #04: 03:29:30Z; 17.7°N 80.3°W; PA: 10016 ft; D-Value: 17 ft; Wind: SE (124°) @ 120 mph; Max Wind: 121 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 51°F
Ob #05: 03:30:00Z; 17.7°N 80.3°W; PA: 10016 ft; D-Value: 29 ft; Wind: SE (124°) @ 115 mph; Max Wind: 118 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 50°F
Ob #06: 03:30:30Z; 17.7°N 80.2°W; PA: 10016 ft; D-Value: 39 ft; Wind: SE (124°) @ 114 mph; Max Wind: 116 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 50°F
Ob #07: 03:31:00Z; 17.7°N 80.2°W; PA: 10026 ft; D-Value: 48 ft; Wind: SE (126°) @ 108 mph; Max Wind: 112 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 49°F
Ob #08: 03:31:30Z; 17.7°N 80.2°W; PA: 10010 ft; D-Value: 57 ft; Wind: SE (130°) @ 103 mph; Max Wind: 104 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 48°F
Ob #09: 03:32:00Z; 17.7°N 80.2°W; PA: 10030 ft; D-Value: 67 ft; Wind: SE (126°) @ 94 mph; Max Wind: 96 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 47°F
Ob #10: 03:32:30Z; 17.8°N 80.2°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 71 ft; Wind: SE (129°) @ 96 mph; Max Wind: 97 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 47°F
Ob #11: 03:33:00Z; 17.8°N 80.1°W; PA: 10030 ft; D-Value: 77 ft; Wind: SE (130°) @ 94 mph; Max Wind: 96 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 47°F
Ob #12: 03:33:30Z; 17.8°N 80.1°W; PA: 10023 ft; D-Value: 82 ft; Wind: SE (132°) @ 91 mph; Max Wind: 93 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 47°F
Ob #13: 03:34:00Z; 17.8°N 80.1°W; PA: 10026 ft; D-Value: 84 ft; Wind: SE (133°) @ 92 mph; Max Wind: 93 mph; Temp: 44°F; Dewpt: 47°F
Ob #14: 03:34:30Z; 17.8°N 80.1°W; PA: 10016 ft; D-Value: 88 ft; Wind: SE (127°) @ 92 mph; Max Wind: 94 mph; Temp: 43°F; Dewpt: 47°F
Ob #15: 03:35:00Z; 17.8°N 80.1°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 92 ft; Wind: SE (125°) @ 91 mph; Max Wind: 93 mph; Temp: 42°F; Dewpt: 47°F
Ob #16: 03:35:30Z; 17.9°N 80°W; PA: 10030 ft; D-Value: 97 ft; Wind: ESE (123°) @ 89 mph; Max Wind: 91 mph; Temp: 43°F; Dewpt: 46°F
Ob #17: 03:36:00Z; 17.9°N 80°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 100 ft; Wind: ESE (122°) @ 89 mph; Max Wind: 90 mph; Temp: 43°F; Dewpt: 46°F
Ob #18: 03:36:30Z; 17.9°N 80°W; PA: 10033 ft; D-Value: 103 ft; Wind: ESE (121°) @ 88 mph; Max Wind: 91 mph; Temp: 43°F; Dewpt: 46°F
Ob #19: 03:37:00Z; 17.9°N 80°W; PA: 10026 ft; D-Value: 107 ft; Wind: ESE (122°) @ 82 mph; Max Wind: 83 mph; Temp: 44°F; Dewpt: 45°F
Ob #20: 03:37:30Z; 17.9°N 80°W; PA: 10010 ft; D-Value: 108 ft; Wind: SE (128°) @ 83 mph; Max Wind: 86 mph; Temp: 43°F; Dewpt: 46°F

[drezee]

The MINOBS are under the header URNT40. I have not seen them for Emily.

NOAA MINOBS are under URNT40 KWBC.
AF MINOBS are under SXXX50 KNHC.

Only when given in 1-min increments, the obs thus far are in 30-sec increments.

[PurdueWx80]

458
URNT12 KNHC 170337
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 17/03:20:30Z
B. 17 deg 24 min N
080 deg 25 min W
C. 700 mb 2586 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 281 deg 096 kt
G. 201 deg 005 nm
H. 939 mb
I. 10 C/ 3044 m
J. 20 C/ 3042 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. E15/16/8
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 1005A EMILY OB 18
MAX FL WIND 149 KT NE QUAD 23:38:40 Z

[Scorpion]

What is that?

[jkt21787]

Does that say 939? wow, thats a big rise.

[senorpepr]

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 10
Flight ID: AF304
Observation Number: 18
Time: 03:20:30Z
Latitude: 17.4°N
Longitude: 80.4°W
Location: 242 mi W of Kingston, Jamaica
Minimum height at 700 mb 2586 m
Est. Surface Winds Observed: NA
Maximum flight level wind: W (281°) @ 111 mph
Distance and bearing from center to max flight level wind: 6 mi SSW (201°)
Sea level pressure: 939 mb
Max flight level temperature outside the eye: 50°F at 9987 feet
Max flight level temperature inside the eye: 68°F at 9980 feet
Dewpoint temperature inside the eye: 50°F
Eye character: CLOSED
Eye shape: Elliptical
Eye diameter: Major axis oriented SE (150°), major axis length: 18 mi, minor axis length: 9 mi
Fix determined by: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature at 700 mb
Navigation / Met Accuracy: 0.02 / 1 nm
MAX FL WIND 149 KT NE QUAD 23:38:40 Z

[Derek Ortt]

still very borderline.

they may keep it as a 4, especially with the pressure now UP to 939

[Normandy]

Surely that must have missed the eye

[Scorpion]

Why are the FL winds only 149 kt?

[SouthernWx]

Yeah, cat five... something to hoot and holler about.

I'm not hooting and hollering....but readily admit I'm sitting here in awe of what we're witnessing....totally stunned at two monster hurricanes within 10 days that I honestly thought were NOT possible before August.

Before July 2005....there had never been even one 150 mph hurricane in the Atlantic basin during June or July; not once during 154 years (1851-2004). Now two have developed in the same July....the odds of that occurring have to be astronomical.

My fear is this is only a sign of what is coming down the pike in August, September, and likely October....a record breaking hurricane season none of us will even forget.

PW

[gkrangers]

still very borderline.

they may keep it as a 4, especially with the pressure now UP to 939

Yep, no way if the pressure is up to 939.

[senorpepr]

Why are the FL winds only 149 kt?

Look at the time stamp on the FL wind. That is old.

[Scorpion]

176 mph winds at FL and no Cat 5?!! Come on!!

[Scorpion]

Why are the FL winds only 149 kt?

Look at the time stamp on the FL wind. That is old.

Oh thank you lol I was gonna have a nervous breakdown.

[Hyperstorm]

Whoever changed the title of this thread saying that this is a category 5, is misinformed. Until an OFFICIAL statement is out, I wouldn't say it is a category 5. Remember, that this board is read by many people and that statement could be misleading.

Besides, latest vortex data message indicates that the pressure is back up to 939 mb, which would likely be factor that makes them NOT upgrade...