senorpepr wrote:Well, remember that dropsondes don't report sustained winds. That is exactly why the NHC didn't upgrade at 8pm. All the data shown that sustained winds, even 30-sec winds remained under cat 5 status. The dropsonde can't produce a one-minute wind, thanks to gravity. The time it spends measuring a parcle of atmosphere is faster than you can blink. Those winds in the dropsonde were gusts until proven otherwise by flight level winds.
Flight level winds aren't 1-minute winds either. There are no 1-min winds taken in recon, so what is the point? Dropsondes are however used to determine the real strength of a system. Read the NHC's own words at the bottom. I believe the real truth of the matter is that the NHC will not upgrade a borderline system, because of what it means to history. They do NOT want to second guess on this one. Either way they lose....
Option 1: They upgrade Emily to Cat 5: They have data that people can use against them to say it wasn't. Ala Accuweather, the "real" meteorlogical community
Option 2: They don't upgrade it, the only people who even think about upgrading it with the current data are the people on boards like this. NO FEAR There....
The 11pm advisory includes this:
EMILY HAS REMAINED ESSENTIALLY STEADY-STATE DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS AS A HIGH-END CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. HOWEVER... AN
AIRCRAFT RECON FIX AT 2340Z DID INDICATE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD
FALLEN 8 MB SINCE 18Z TO 929 MB... AND A MORE RECENT FIX MEASURED
931 MB. THE MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND IN THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT WAS 149 KT... WHICH SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE INTENSITY AT
135 KT. DVORAK T-NUMBERS WERE 6.5 FROM SAB AND AFWA AND 7.0 FROM
TAFB... SO THERE IS NOT MUCH BASIS ON WHICH TO UPGRADE TO A
CATEGORY FIVE AT THIS TIME.
The 5pm said this:
EMILY HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON. AT ABOUT 17Z...AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 937 MB...WITH 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS AS HIGH AS 151 KT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THIS SUPPORTS
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 135 KT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT EMILY
HAS GOTTEN STRONGER SINCE THE AIRCRAFT LEFT THE STORM. HOWEVER...
THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE DOES NOT YET SUPPORT STRONGER WINDS...SO
ANY FURTHER INCREASE IN THE INTITAL WINDS WILL WAIT FOR THE NEXT
AIRCRAFT SCHEDULED NEAR 00Z.
11am:
EMILY HAS UNDERGONE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRENGTHENING THIS MORNING. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 943 MB...WITH 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS AS HIGH AS 148 KT. THIS WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT SURFACE WINDS
OF 130-135 KT. HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE AND EYEWALL
DROPSONDES DO NOT YET SUPPORT WINDS THIS HIGH. THUS...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET TO 125 KT...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.
Yeah, cat five... something to hoot and holler about. 
