BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005
...RAINBANDS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE EMILY
SPREADING OVER JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN
COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO PROGRESO...
INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS MUJERES.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA
LATER THIS EVENING.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN... AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES...
230 KM... SOUTHWEST OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA AND ABOUT 195 MILES...
315 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.
EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH... 30 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE MOVING AWAY
FROM JAMAICA TONIGHT AND WILL BE NEAR GRAND CAYMAN TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING.
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 155 MPH... 250 KM/HR... WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE
EXPECTED... AND EMILY COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE AT
TIMES... DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM... FROM
THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
150 MILES... 240 KM. FOR JAMAICA... HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD
STILL OCCUR TONIGHT IN GUSTS IN RAINBANDS ALONG THE COASTS... WITH
POSSIBLE SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...
ESPECIALLY ABOVE ABOUT 3000 FEET.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 929 MB...27.43 INCHES.
ABOVE NORMAL TIDES... ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES... ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS OF JAMAICA AND THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.
EMILY COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER
JAMAICA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS... WITH SOME 1 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA. RAINS WILL BE INCREASING OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA ON SUNDAY WITH STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
POSSIBLE... AND LOCAL MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...17.1 N... 79.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...155 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 929 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.
The lowest pressure in July ever a new record has been established.How more records 2005 will have?
Hurricane Emily Advisories
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145308
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145308
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
If there is no data to support a cat 5 then they have to mantain it as a 4.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38089
- Age: 36
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005
...EMILY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY
FOUR HURRICANE...
...NEW HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED...
AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE... INCLUDING COZUMEL AND
THE ISLAS MUJERES. ADDITIONALLY... THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN
EXTENDED WESTWARD AND IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE ON
THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CAMPECHE ON THE
WESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA... ALL OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.... AND THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE... INCLUDING COZUMEL
AND THE ISLAS MUJERES.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE
FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN
CUBA LATER TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 80.3 WEST OR ABOUT 140
MILES... 220 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 480
MILES... 770 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.
EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH
... 30 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER OF EMILY
WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM JAMAICA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL
BE NEAR GRAND CAYMAN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED... AND EMILY
COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE AT TIMES... DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 150 MILES...240 KM.
REPORTS FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NEAR 930 MB...27.46 INCHES.
ABOVE NORMAL TIDES... ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES... ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS OF JAMAICA AND THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS WITH ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER WESTERN JAMAICA.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH LOCAL MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...17.5 N... 80.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...155 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 930 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.
FORECASTER KNABB
HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005
...EMILY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY
FOUR HURRICANE...
...NEW HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED...
AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE... INCLUDING COZUMEL AND
THE ISLAS MUJERES. ADDITIONALLY... THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN
EXTENDED WESTWARD AND IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE ON
THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CAMPECHE ON THE
WESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA... ALL OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.... AND THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE... INCLUDING COZUMEL
AND THE ISLAS MUJERES.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE
FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN
CUBA LATER TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 80.3 WEST OR ABOUT 140
MILES... 220 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 480
MILES... 770 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.
EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH
... 30 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER OF EMILY
WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM JAMAICA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL
BE NEAR GRAND CAYMAN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED... AND EMILY
COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE AT TIMES... DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 150 MILES...240 KM.
REPORTS FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NEAR 930 MB...27.46 INCHES.
ABOVE NORMAL TIDES... ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES... ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS OF JAMAICA AND THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS WITH ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER WESTERN JAMAICA.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH LOCAL MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...17.5 N... 80.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...155 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 930 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.
FORECASTER KNABB
0 likes
#neversummer
-
Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38089
- Age: 36
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005
0300Z SUN JUL 17 2005
AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE... INCLUDING COZUMEL AND
THE ISLAS MUJERES. ADDITIONALLY... THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN
EXTENDED WESTWARD AND IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE ON
THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CAMPECHE ON THE
WESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA... ALL OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.... AND THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE... INCLUDING COZUMEL
AND THE ISLAS MUJERES.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE
FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN
CUBA LATER TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 80.3W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 930 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 30SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT.......130NE 80SE 50SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..275NE 215SE 100SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 80.3W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 79.5W
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.5N 82.6W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 30SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 80SE 50SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 19.8N 85.8W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 60SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 21.0N 89.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 15SE 10SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 25SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 70SE 50SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 22.2N 92.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 60SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 24.0N 97.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 60SW 120NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 25.0N 101.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 25.0N 105.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 80.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z
FORECASTER KNABB
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005
0300Z SUN JUL 17 2005
AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE... INCLUDING COZUMEL AND
THE ISLAS MUJERES. ADDITIONALLY... THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN
EXTENDED WESTWARD AND IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE ON
THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CAMPECHE ON THE
WESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA... ALL OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.... AND THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE... INCLUDING COZUMEL
AND THE ISLAS MUJERES.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE
FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN
CUBA LATER TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 80.3W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 930 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 30SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT.......130NE 80SE 50SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..275NE 215SE 100SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 80.3W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 79.5W
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.5N 82.6W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 30SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 80SE 50SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 19.8N 85.8W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 60SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 21.0N 89.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 15SE 10SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 25SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 70SE 50SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 22.2N 92.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 60SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 24.0N 97.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 60SW 120NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 25.0N 101.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 25.0N 105.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 80.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z
FORECASTER KNABB
0 likes
#neversummer
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145308
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005
...EMILY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY
FOUR HURRICANE...
...NEW HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED...
AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE... INCLUDING COZUMEL AND
THE ISLAS MUJERES. ADDITIONALLY... THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN
EXTENDED WESTWARD AND IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE ON
THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CAMPECHE ON THE
WESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA... ALL OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.... AND THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE... INCLUDING COZUMEL
AND THE ISLAS MUJERES.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE
FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN
CUBA LATER TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 80.3 WEST OR ABOUT 140
MILES... 220 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 480
MILES... 770 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.
EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH
... 30 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER OF EMILY
WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM JAMAICA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL
BE NEAR GRAND CAYMAN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED... AND EMILY
COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE AT TIMES... DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 150 MILES...240 KM.
REPORTS FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NEAR 930 MB...27.46 INCHES.
ABOVE NORMAL TIDES... ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES... ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS OF JAMAICA AND THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS WITH ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER WESTERN JAMAICA.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH LOCAL MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...17.5 N... 80.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...155 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 930 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.
FORECASTER KNABB
HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005
...EMILY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY
FOUR HURRICANE...
...NEW HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED...
AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE... INCLUDING COZUMEL AND
THE ISLAS MUJERES. ADDITIONALLY... THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN
EXTENDED WESTWARD AND IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE ON
THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CAMPECHE ON THE
WESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA... ALL OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.... AND THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE... INCLUDING COZUMEL
AND THE ISLAS MUJERES.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE
FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN
CUBA LATER TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 80.3 WEST OR ABOUT 140
MILES... 220 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 480
MILES... 770 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.
EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH
... 30 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER OF EMILY
WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM JAMAICA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL
BE NEAR GRAND CAYMAN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED... AND EMILY
COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE AT TIMES... DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 150 MILES...240 KM.
REPORTS FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NEAR 930 MB...27.46 INCHES.
ABOVE NORMAL TIDES... ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES... ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS OF JAMAICA AND THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS WITH ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER WESTERN JAMAICA.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH LOCAL MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...17.5 N... 80.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...155 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 930 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.
FORECASTER KNABB
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
PurdueWx80
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 2720
- Joined: Fri Aug 13, 2004 8:33 pm
- Location: Madison, WI
- Contact:
-
Matt-hurricanewatcher
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145308
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
TCDAT5
HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005
EMILY HAS REMAINED ESSENTIALLY STEADY-STATE DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS AS A HIGH-END CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. HOWEVER... AN
AIRCRAFT RECON FIX AT 2340Z DID INDICATE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD
FALLEN 8 MB SINCE 18Z TO 929 MB... AND A MORE RECENT FIX MEASURED
931 MB. THE MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND IN THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT WAS 149 KT... WHICH SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE INTENSITY AT
135 KT. DVORAK T-NUMBERS WERE 6.5 FROM SAB AND AFWA AND 7.0 FROM
TAFB... SO THERE IS NOT MUCH BASIS ON WHICH TO UPGRADE TO A
CATEGORY FIVE AT THIS TIME. SINCE BOTH THE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENTS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN APPEAR TO POSE NOTHING
OBVIOUS TO WEAKEN EMILY... INTERNAL STRUCTURAL CHANGES WILL LIKELY
DETERMINE INTENSITY CHANGES BEFORE EMILY PASSED OVER OR NEAR THE
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE INTENSITY OVER THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW MUCH TIME EMILY SPENDS
OVER YUCATAN... BUT IT APPEARS PROBABLE THAT IT WILL MAINTAIN MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK... NOW ESTIMATED AT 295/16. THIS EXTRAPOLATED MOTION IS USED
TO CONSTRUCT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK OUT TO ABOUT 36 HOURS...
AND THE CURRENT FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.... SINCE SOME OF THE MODELS... ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN OUTLIERS... DO NOT INITIALIZE THE POSITION OR SHORT-TERM
MOTION VERY WELL. IF ANYTHING... THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD SINCE THE PREVIOUS RUNS... SO I SEE NO REASON TO SHIFT
THE FORECAST TRACK OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. IT IS STILL TO SOON...
HOWEVER... TO DETERMINE IF LANDFALL ON THE NORTH AMERICAN MAINLAND
WILL OCCUR IN NORTHERN MEXICO OR IN TEXAS.
FORECASTER KNABB
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/0300Z 17.5N 80.3W 135 KT
12HR VT 17/1200Z 18.5N 82.6W 135 KT
24HR VT 18/0000Z 19.8N 85.8W 135 KT
36HR VT 18/1200Z 21.0N 89.0W 95 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 19/0000Z 22.2N 92.0W 105 KT
72HR VT 20/0000Z 24.0N 97.0W 105 KT
96HR VT 21/0000Z 25.0N 101.5W 55 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 22/0000Z 25.0N 105.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005
EMILY HAS REMAINED ESSENTIALLY STEADY-STATE DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS AS A HIGH-END CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. HOWEVER... AN
AIRCRAFT RECON FIX AT 2340Z DID INDICATE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD
FALLEN 8 MB SINCE 18Z TO 929 MB... AND A MORE RECENT FIX MEASURED
931 MB. THE MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND IN THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT WAS 149 KT... WHICH SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE INTENSITY AT
135 KT. DVORAK T-NUMBERS WERE 6.5 FROM SAB AND AFWA AND 7.0 FROM
TAFB... SO THERE IS NOT MUCH BASIS ON WHICH TO UPGRADE TO A
CATEGORY FIVE AT THIS TIME. SINCE BOTH THE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENTS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN APPEAR TO POSE NOTHING
OBVIOUS TO WEAKEN EMILY... INTERNAL STRUCTURAL CHANGES WILL LIKELY
DETERMINE INTENSITY CHANGES BEFORE EMILY PASSED OVER OR NEAR THE
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE INTENSITY OVER THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW MUCH TIME EMILY SPENDS
OVER YUCATAN... BUT IT APPEARS PROBABLE THAT IT WILL MAINTAIN MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK... NOW ESTIMATED AT 295/16. THIS EXTRAPOLATED MOTION IS USED
TO CONSTRUCT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK OUT TO ABOUT 36 HOURS...
AND THE CURRENT FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.... SINCE SOME OF THE MODELS... ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN OUTLIERS... DO NOT INITIALIZE THE POSITION OR SHORT-TERM
MOTION VERY WELL. IF ANYTHING... THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD SINCE THE PREVIOUS RUNS... SO I SEE NO REASON TO SHIFT
THE FORECAST TRACK OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. IT IS STILL TO SOON...
HOWEVER... TO DETERMINE IF LANDFALL ON THE NORTH AMERICAN MAINLAND
WILL OCCUR IN NORTHERN MEXICO OR IN TEXAS.
FORECASTER KNABB
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/0300Z 17.5N 80.3W 135 KT
12HR VT 17/1200Z 18.5N 82.6W 135 KT
24HR VT 18/0000Z 19.8N 85.8W 135 KT
36HR VT 18/1200Z 21.0N 89.0W 95 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 19/0000Z 22.2N 92.0W 105 KT
72HR VT 20/0000Z 24.0N 97.0W 105 KT
96HR VT 21/0000Z 25.0N 101.5W 55 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 22/0000Z 25.0N 105.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
Stratosphere747
- Category 5
- Posts: 3772
- Joined: Thu Sep 11, 2003 8:34 pm
- Location: Surfside Beach/Freeport Tx
- Contact:
-
stormie_skies
- Category 5
- Posts: 3318
- Joined: Tue Aug 12, 2003 9:25 pm
- Location: League City, TX
-
Stratosphere747
- Category 5
- Posts: 3772
- Joined: Thu Sep 11, 2003 8:34 pm
- Location: Surfside Beach/Freeport Tx
- Contact:
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 6 guests