NOAA plane taking measurments of the GULF

[deltadog03]

I know we are all really paying attention to recon in the storm right now...but, I did see a couple of hours ago that they started taking measurements in the gulf...Thanks for the post, sorry i don't remember your name...

anyway,
the western gulf and BOC had pressures from 1012 to 1014...the Central and eastern gulf were around 1016mb...what can this tell us?? anything?

[Stratosphere747]

It's Senorpepr.

And you can still check some of the info they were reporting in the recon thread.

[senorpepr]

I know we are all really paying attention to recon in the storm right now...but, I did see a couple of hours ago that they started taking measurements in the gulf...Thanks for the post, sorry i don't remember your name...

anyway,
the western gulf and BOC had pressures from 1012 to 1014...the Central and eastern gulf were around 1016mb...what can this tell us?? anything?

Yes, there is a NOAA plane and an Air Force plane doing synoptic flights around the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.

Unfortunately, I haven't really been monitoring the progress of these planes nor the situation beforehand to see what this will tell us. Maybe another person and/or pro met may have some knowledge to pass along. Regardless, we should get a better handle on the model guidance when these observations are ingested.

[MWatkins]

Not sure which obs you're referring to...but I believe there is a NOAA plane sampling the environment ahead of the system to use this additional information to initialize the 0Z global models. This additional information...if they fly the right pattern...tends to improve model performance by 30% or more...by getting wind...pressure...temperature and dewpoint information that would otherwise not be available as initial conditions for the global models to work with. This happens all the time when hurricanes are threatening or a potential threat to the Caribbean and US coast lines.

MW

[hicksta]

what information are they getting.. what will it tell us?

[deltadog03]

yeah, i have looked at the ones posted, still not sure what they will imply to things...but, basically i noticed that the pressures will the lowest in the western gulf...not, to low but lower....the highest one i saw was like south of new orleans at 1016mb...thats not particularly strong

[MWatkins]

what information are they getting.. what will it tell us?

The wind...temperature...pressure...and dew point information...gathered from dropwindsondes (sondes dropped from very high up that gather this information on the way down) are used by the models.

Since there are no possible ways to get this data during normal times, these drops collect these valuable datapoints...then the information is used by the global models to better resolve weather features in the atmosphere that may have otherwise been missed without this data.

MW

[hicksta]

So with this info they should be able to nail a forcast point

[MWatkins]

So with this info they should be able to nail a forcast point

It makes the model performance better...which in turn makes for forecasts with lower error rates. However...unfortunately...it won't make the forecasts perfect. But it helps.

MW

[vbhoutex]

So with this info they should be able to nail a forcast point

No they can not nail a forecast point with the information. It helps the models better forecast future movements because there is better information about the environment out in front of the Hurricane.

[hicksta]

Ahh, gotcha. so we could possibly see a change in models at 2am with this new info.

[TrekkerCC]

yeah, i have looked at the ones posted, still not sure what they will imply to things...but, basically i noticed that the pressures will the lowest in the western gulf...not, to low but lower....the highest one i saw was like south of new orleans at 1016mb...thats not particularly strong

Just want to post something to help you out. From my observation, it appears that you are looking at the surface observations and trying to use that as a measure of the upper level environment. At different levels of the atmosphere, there can be different sorts of conditions. While it is useful to look at the surface conditions, it may have little bearing on what is happening in the upper levels of the atmosphere.

-TrekkerCC

[deltadog03]

ok...thanks...yeah...i was going by the dropsonde....like SE at a certain level or something...or E or whatever?

[deltadog03]

ok, trekker...here is one...

Dropsonde Observation
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 09
Flight ID: AF305 (UL Flight)
Observation Number: 06
Time: 2100Z
Latitude: 25.9°N
Longitude: 93.9°W
Location: 203 mi E of Brownsville, Texas
Surface: 1014 mb; Temp: 86°F; Dewpt: 133°F; SE (140°) @ 16 mph
1000mb height: 413 ft; Temp: 83°F; Dewpt: 122°F; SSE (150°) @ 21 mph
925mb height: 2677 ft; Temp: 74°F; Dewpt: 104°F; SSE (150°) @ 20 mph
850mb height: 1801 ft; Temp: 65°F; Dewpt: 86°F; SSE (160°) @ 17 mph
700mb height: 10469 ft; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 133°F; SE (140°) @ 15 mph
500mb height: 19390 ft; Temp: 42°F; Dewpt: 144°F; SSE (150°) @ 13 mph
400mb height: 25033 ft; Temp: 61°F; Dewpt: 100°F; SSE (155°) @ 8 mph
SPL 2597N09395W 2103 MBL WND 15017 AEV 20504 DLM WND 15012
014352 WL150 15016 081

I would think this would be pretty much very important right?? winds at all levels they took a reading were out of the SSE or SE...what is your take?? anyones opinion...plz

[MWatkins]

Flight ID: AF305 (UL Flight)

Yep this is definately an upper-level flight.

That dropsonde report has data from 400MB (way up past 20000) all the way doen to the surface. Hard to make much of a conclusion from 1 drop...but the models get/got this data. GFS should have kicked off already with a lot of this new info...

MW

[deltadog03]

Flight ID: AF305 (UL Flight)

Yep this is definately an upper-level flight.

That dropsonde report has data from 400MB (way up past 20000) all the way doen to the surface. Hard to make much of a conclusion from 1 drop...but the models get/got this data. GFS should have kicked off already with a lot of this new info...

MW

ok, thanks...well, i won't post all of them but, the one off shore near galveston was pretty much the same way...as well as the one off shore of New Orleans...pretty much SSE

[hicksta]

Whats this new info show and what should it do for the models.. once they keep going out and if the millibars weaken it shows weakness allowing for a more n turn correct.. correct me if im wrong

[gkrangers]

Whats this new info show and what should it do for the models.. once they keep going out and if the millibars weaken it shows weakness allowing for a more n turn correct.. correct me if im wrong

It should allow the models to more accurately forecast the ridging over the northern gulf of mexico. The surface pressures don't necessarily have very much to do with it.

[Anonymous]

So when will we know the end results of this info feed into the models?

[hicksta]

Alright, do the models already have this information or will they at two.