H Emily Recon Reports

[gkrangers]

RECCO Observation
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 10
Flight ID: AF304
Observation Number: 05
Time: 2316Z
Latitude: 18.1°N
Longitude: 78.4°W
Location: 107 mi W of Kingston, Jamaica
Turbulence: Occasional Severe
Flight condition: In cloud
Pressure Altitude: 10000 feet
Flight level wind: ESE (120°) @ 51 mph
Temperature: 43°F
Dewpoint: 43°F
Weather: Thunderstorm
700mb height: 10300 feet
Surface Wind: N/A
Remarks: None


...Inbound NE quad ob...

When that happen you know its getting stronger/bombing...The eye is tighting. Whiling to take a guest?

It doesn't mean anything.

[clfenwi]

As I said before, they'll make it... easy...

[Ola]

if its the latter they won't make the 8pm advisory

It will make the advisory. Remember, NHC receives the data near realtime. We have to wait a little bit for a QCed version.

OMG dont let JB and the goonies at accuweather get a hold of this post!!! EDIT IT!!!

[senorpepr]

Here they go...


Flight Level Data
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 10
Flight ID: AF304
Flt Data Number: 19
Latest Ob Location: 136 mi WSW of Kingston, Jamaica

Ob #01: 23:28:00Z; 17.6°N 78.9°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: 92 ft; Wind: SE (127°) @ 81 mph; Max Wind: 83 mph; Temp: 42°F; Dewpt: 45°F
Ob #02: 23:28:30Z; 17.6°N 78.9°W; PA: 9980 ft; D-Value: 89 ft; Wind: SE (134°) @ 81 mph; Max Wind: 82 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 45°F
Ob #03: 23:29:00Z; 17.5°N 78.9°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 88 ft; Wind: SE (132°) @ 79 mph; Max Wind: 81 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 45°F
Ob #04: 23:29:30Z; 17.5°N 79°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 86 ft; Wind: SE (132°) @ 83 mph; Max Wind: 83 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 45°F
Ob #05: 23:30:00Z; 17.5°N 79°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: 84 ft; Wind: SE (132°) @ 86 mph; Max Wind: 88 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 46°F
Ob #06: 23:30:30Z; 17.5°N 79°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 78 ft; Wind: SE (128°) @ 85 mph; Max Wind: 86 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 46°F
Ob #07: 23:31:00Z; 17.5°N 79°W; PA: 9987 ft; D-Value: 73 ft; Wind: SE (127°) @ 85 mph; Max Wind: 85 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 45°F
Ob #08: 23:31:30Z; 17.4°N 79°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 64 ft; Wind: SE (127°) @ 88 mph; Max Wind: 90 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 46°F
Ob #09: 23:32:00Z; 17.4°N 79.1°W; PA: 9987 ft; D-Value: 57 ft; Wind: SE (127°) @ 94 mph; Max Wind: 96 mph; Temp: 42°F; Dewpt: 47°F
Ob #10: 23:32:30Z; 17.4°N 79.1°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 50 ft; Wind: SE (136°) @ 92 mph; Max Wind: 96 mph; Temp: 44°F; Dewpt: 47°F
Ob #11: 23:33:00Z; 17.4°N 79.1°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 41 ft; Wind: SE (137°) @ 100 mph; Max Wind: 101 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 48°F
Ob #12: 23:33:30Z; 17.4°N 79.1°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: 32 ft; Wind: SE (132°) @ 105 mph; Max Wind: 105 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 48°F
Ob #13: 23:34:00Z; 17.3°N 79.1°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 21 ft; Wind: SE (134°) @ 111 mph; Max Wind: 113 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 50°F
Ob #14: 23:34:30Z; 17.3°N 79.2°W; PA: 9987 ft; D-Value: 6 ft; Wind: SE (134°) @ 115 mph; Max Wind: 116 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 50°F
Ob #15: 23:35:00Z; 17.3°N 79.2°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: -11 ft; Wind: SE (135°) @ 118 mph; Max Wind: 120 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 51°F
Ob #16: 23:35:30Z; 17.3°N 79.2°W; PA: 10016 ft; D-Value: -32 ft; Wind: SE (132°) @ 123 mph; Max Wind: 124 mph; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: 51°F
Ob #17: 23:36:00Z; 17.3°N 79.2°W; PA: 9974 ft; D-Value: -54 ft; Wind: SE (127°) @ 127 mph; Max Wind: 129 mph; Temp: 44°F; Dewpt: 52°F
Ob #18: 23:36:30Z; 17.2°N 79.2°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: -82 ft; Wind: SE (132°) @ 127 mph; Max Wind: 130 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 52°F
Ob #19: 23:37:00Z; 17.2°N 79.3°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: -119 ft; Wind: SE (133°) @ 138 mph; Max Wind: 143 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 54°F
Ob #20: 23:37:30Z; 17.2°N 79.3°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: -163 ft; Wind: SE (133°) @ 150 mph; Max Wind: 152 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 56°F

[senorpepr]

Dropsonde Observation
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 09
Flight ID: AF305 (UL Flight)
Observation Number: 12
Time: 2300Z
Latitude: 25.6°N
Longitude: 89°W
Location: 257 mi SSE of Grand Isle, Louisana
Surface: 1015 mb; Temp: 85°F; Dewpt: 104°F; ESE (110°) @ 14 mph
1000mb height: 433 ft; Temp: 82°F; Dewpt: 90°F; ESE (110°) @ 14 mph
925mb height: 2694 ft; Temp: 72°F; Dewpt: 66°F; SE (130°) @ 14 mph
850mb height: 1818 ft; Temp: 64°F; Dewpt: 66°F; E (100°) @ 8 mph
700mb height: 10482 ft; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 140°F; SE (130°) @ 18 mph
500mb height: 19390 ft; Temp: 41°F; Dewpt: 142°F; ESE (120°) @ 14 mph
400mb height: 25033 ft; Temp: 61°F; Dewpt: 133°F; E (85°) @ 6 mph


SPL 2557N08899W 2328 MBL WND 11512 AEV 20504 DLM WND 12010
015351 WL150 11512 075

[senorpepr]

RECCO Observation
Turbulence: Moderate occasional Severe

When that happen you know its getting stronger/bombing...The eye is tighting. Whiling to take a guest?

It doesn't mean anything.

Right, I just highlighted the turbulence to give everyone an idea of how the crew's ride is. Not all powerful hurricanes have strong turbulence.

[Scorpion]

Was the 152 mph in the NE quad?

[mike18xx]

I agree about the pressure drop. The eye has really cleared out, the convection has increased, which would only mean theres even MORE sinking air into that thing - i.e. a lower pressure.

Sinking (and compressing) air is normally an indication of high pressure; the pressure is low in hurricane eyes due to centrifuging creating a quasi-vacuum in the center of a rotating fluid medium -- same reason whirlpools, tornados, and even some dust devils have "eyes".

[senorpepr]

Was the 152 mph in the NE quad?

Yes, but that observation didn't sample all of that leg. They are still inbound into the eye from the NE quad.

[Valkhorn]

Sinking (and compressing) air is normally an indication of high pressure; the pressure is low in hurricane eyes due to centrifuging creating a quasi-vacuum in the center of a rotating fluid medium -- same reason whirlpools, tornados, and even some dust devils have "eyes".

I stand corrected, either way its looked a lot cleaner lately.

[senorpepr]

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 10
Flight ID: AF304
Flt Data Number: 20
Latest Ob Location: 127 mi SW of Kingston, Jamaica

Ob #01: 23:38:00Z; 17.2°N 79.3°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: -222 ft; Wind: SE (137°) @ 161 mph; Max Wind: 166 mph; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: 58°F
Ob #02: 23:38:30Z; 17.2°N 79.3°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: -294 ft; Wind: SE (142°) @ 167 mph; Max Wind: 170 mph; Temp: 52°F; Dewpt: 59°F
Ob #03: 23:39:00Z; 17.2°N 79.3°W; PA: 10033 ft; D-Value: -379 ft; Wind: SSE (149°) @ 154 mph; Max Wind: 172 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 59°F
Ob #04: 23:39:30Z; 17.1°N 79.4°W; PA: 9921 ft; D-Value: -469 ft; Wind: SSE (152°) @ 108 mph; Max Wind: 119 mph; Temp: 59°F; Dewpt: 51°F
Ob #05: 23:40:00Z; 17.1°N 79.4°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: -517 ft; Wind: SSE (150°) @ 68 mph; Max Wind: 82 mph; Temp: 69°F; Dewpt: 45°F
Ob #06: 23:40:30Z; 17.1°N 79.4°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: -531 ft; Wind: SE (146°) @ 26 mph; Max Wind: 38 mph; Temp: 71°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #07: 23:41:00Z; 17.1°N 79.4°W; PA: 9980 ft; D-Value: -527 ft; Wind: SSE (150°) @ 5 mph; Max Wind: 16 mph; Temp: 70°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #08: 23:41:30Z; 17.1°N 79.4°W; PA: 9967 ft; D-Value: -502 ft; Wind: WNW (301°) @ 26 mph; Max Wind: 37 mph; Temp: 67°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #09: 23:42:00Z; 17.1°N 79.5°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: -470 ft; Wind: NW (316°) @ 63 mph; Max Wind: 78 mph; Temp: 63°F; Dewpt: 44°F
Ob #10: 23:42:30Z; 17.1°N 79.5°W; PA: 9987 ft; D-Value: -406 ft; Wind: NW (317°) @ 99 mph; Max Wind: 105 mph; Temp: 52°F; Dewpt: 48°F
Ob #11: 23:43:00Z; 17°N 79.5°W; PA: 10059 ft; D-Value: -300 ft; Wind: NNW (327°) @ 130 mph; Max Wind: 141 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 54°F
Ob #12: 23:43:30Z; 17°N 79.5°W; PA: 9908 ft; D-Value: -196 ft; Wind: NNW (332°) @ 131 mph; Max Wind: 138 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 54°F
Ob #13: 23:44:00Z; 17°N 79.6°W; PA: 9938 ft; D-Value: -124 ft; Wind: NNW (329°) @ 112 mph; Max Wind: 114 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 50°F
Ob #14: 23:44:30Z; 17°N 79.6°W; PA: 9977 ft; D-Value: -80 ft; Wind: NNW (329°) @ 98 mph; Max Wind: 101 mph; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: 48°F
Ob #15: 23:45:00Z; 16.9°N 79.6°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: -48 ft; Wind: NNW (332°) @ 90 mph; Max Wind: 96 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 47°F
Ob #16: 23:45:30Z; 16.9°N 79.6°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: -23 ft; Wind: NNW (330°) @ 75 mph; Max Wind: 78 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 44°F
Ob #17: 23:46:00Z; 16.9°N 79.7°W; PA: 10016 ft; D-Value: -3 ft; Wind: NNW (336°) @ 78 mph; Max Wind: 81 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 45°F
Ob #18: 23:46:30Z; 16.9°N 79.7°W; PA: 9951 ft; D-Value: 16 ft; Wind: NNW (332°) @ 68 mph; Max Wind: 70 mph; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #19: 23:47:00Z; 16.9°N 79.7°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 30 ft; Wind: NNW (329°) @ 65 mph; Max Wind: 66 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 42°F
Ob #20: 23:47:30Z; 16.8°N 79.7°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 43 ft; Wind: NW (325°) @ 59 mph; Max Wind: 61 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 42°F

[Thunder44]

you need a wind at flight level of 175mph or more to get the Cat 5

[jkt21787]

Assuming this is all the data, this storm is no stronger than it was this afternoon.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Is that high enough for the upgrade? I can't believe that it has not gotten much stronger from earlier. It looks 100 times better.

[jkt21787]

Is that high enough for the upgrade?

Nope, only equates to about 155 mph at the surface.

[Derek Ortt]

seems like its still just shy of cat 5 status

[Scorpion]

No

[jkt21787]

This is exactly why NHC didn't upgrade it at 5, because now we know it isn't a cat 5. We need the recon first to confirm it.

[gkrangers]

Is that high enough for the upgrade?

Nope, only equates to about 155 mph at the surface.

Actually 150MPH. I think the first wind number is 1 minute, the second is 30 seconds...and intensity is based on 1 minute winds.

I could be reading it wrong tho.

I'd wait for the eye and eyewall dropsonde to see what they have to report.

[Derek Ortt]

the sat signature has not really improved from earlier