I think we may have a Cat 5.. right now..

Josephine96 · #1 Postby **Josephine96** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:55 pm

Just peeking at an IR image of Emily, and I think we may honestly have a Cat 5 right now..

She looks beautiful on satellite.. A lot of reds wrapped around her eye and eye wall, and she even has some of the red around her NE quadrant where her most dangerous part of the storm is..

Thank GOD she didn't pass directly over Jamaica.. but prayers going out for the Yucatan and for Mexico or Texas when she moves into the BOC.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #2 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 5:01 pm

I agree it looks better then it did a few hours ago...The nhc also said it could be stronger. But they are waiting for recon. I hope recon is safe.

Galvestongirl · #3 Postby **Galvestongirl** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 5:04 pm

In my untrained eye, it seems to me that she may just go through the channel. I know nothing about weather, It just looks like that to me.

Josephine96 · #4 Postby **Josephine96** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 5:08 pm

I hope no one on the recon ate something en route to the hurricane lol.. That might get your stomach feeling some turbulence :eek:

Swimdude · #5 Postby **Swimdude** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 5:09 pm

I agree... I hope recon. can stay safe. A potential cat. 5 cannot be fun to fly into.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #6 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 5:09 pm

How strong of a hurricane can recon take...Because this is very close to being a cat5.

AlabamaDave · #7 Postby **AlabamaDave** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 5:10 pm

What is the deal the last couple of years... it's as if Cat 4 and Cat 5 hurricanes are becoming almost routine. Last year we had Charley -- almost Cat-5, Frances -- almost Cat-5, and Ivan as a bona fide Cat-5. This season, in JULY... Dennis almost reaches Cat-5 and we now have Emily one week later teetering on the verge of being one.

Website · #8 Postby **Brent** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 5:10 pm

Recon will be fine... they've flown into Camille, Gilbert, Mitch, Ivan, Allen, all powerful monsters.

I agree... I think it's a Cat 5.

Mac · #9 Postby **Mac** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 5:10 pm

It appears the eye has constricted some, as well. I personally doubt that she's going to be able to keep it all together with her present skin. I predict 1 more ERC before she reaches the tip of the Yucatan.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #10 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 5:12 pm

When the eye is tighting that means she is going to peak soon.

Mac · #11 Postby **Mac** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 5:13 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:When the eye is tighting that means she is going to peak soon.

At least in her present skin, that is. She can shed that eyewall and fire right back up with her new, bigger eye.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #12 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 5:13 pm

Ivan did just that 3 times. All times cat5.

Mac · #13 Postby **Mac** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 5:15 pm

The funny thing is, unlike Ivan, she didn't lose a whole lot of intensity the last time she went through an ERC. She stayed strong throughout it.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #14 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 5:18 pm

The red ring of convection is wraping...In the eye is tighting...She is as strong as she ever was by Ir. It looks as good as Ivan....It still has alot of work to do for Mitch.

Josephine96 · #15 Postby **Josephine96** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 5:20 pm

Of course I'm not recon.. But I'm gonna guess winds right now may be around at least 160..

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #16 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 5:24 pm

I'm going to guest around 165 mph/928 milibars by the look of that satellite. It is alot better looking then it did earlier. The red ring is forming classic for cat5s to.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #17 Postby **senorpepr** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 5:29 pm

Brent wrote:Recon will be fine... they've flown into Camille, Gilbert, Mitch, Ivan, Allen, all powerful monsters.

I agree... I think it's a Cat 5.

Yes, recon will be fine. It's not the pure wind speed that makes the job dangerous. They could take Camille and those other powerhouse storms. It's the turbulence that can be the problem, but as they say, that all depends on the storm. Some of the category fours and fives don't produce much turbulence whereas some of the tropical storms will give them a really bumpy right. It's the downdrafts that pose the greatest threat to the crew. However, since the near-tragedy with the NOAA crew in Gilbert, recon stays in the mid-levels (10,000ft) to avoid problems with downdrafts.

#18 Postby **JtSmarts** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 5:34 pm

near-tragedy with the NOAA crew in Gilbert

What happened in Gilbert?

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #19 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 5:34 pm

Take this Ivan!!!

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

#20 Postby **AJC3** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 5:43 pm

JtSmarts wrote:
near-tragedy with the NOAA crew in Gilbert

What happened in Gilbert?

I think he meant Hugo. Never heard of any near tragedy in Gilbert. In fact, I had a friend and fellow met that was on the (in)famous flight into Gilbert that recorded the lowest SLP in Atlantic basin history.

I don't have the link, but you can read about the Hugo event somewhere on line. An S2Ker to remain forever nameless led me to that story the night before my first NOAA recon flight. I remain eternally grateful to him for doing that. Fortunately though, my recon flight was perhaps the most uneventful in NOAA history.

I think we may have a Cat 5.. right now..

I think we may have a Cat 5.. right now..

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