If I were in western Cuba

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Galvestongirl
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#41 Postby Galvestongirl » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:50 pm

Mello1 wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:Well the latest loop continues the trend, hmmmmmmmmm.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Hmmm is right. Looks more than to be just a wobble. Unless I totally don't get this or something....


Its hard to say if it is a wobble or trend right now.
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#42 Postby stormie_skies » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:50 pm

Raebie wrote:Shimmying. It's shimmying towards Cuba.

:D


:A:
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#43 Postby Raebie » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:51 pm

hicksta wrote:Very intresting. How long till next loop.


30 minutes?
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#44 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:51 pm

Better wait for 6 more frames to see a trend one way or another.
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#45 Postby Stratosphere747 » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:52 pm

What most are doing is probably one image at a time. Speed the rate up and you will see it is still going at 290.
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#46 Postby Galvestongirl » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:52 pm

shimmy...lol, that is cute.
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#47 Postby hicksta » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:52 pm

cycloneye wrote:Better wait for 6 more frames to see a trend one way or another.


Very true but could this be hinting a Nw turn. Please Correct if im wrong
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#48 Postby deltadog03 » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:52 pm

cycloneye wrote:Better wait for 6 more frames to see a trend one way or another.


yeah, we need to wait a bit to see if it is a trend or not...with that said, even if its not, when it returns to its original WNW then it will still most likely be north of the fcst points...stay tuned
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#49 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:53 pm

like cyclone said, WAIT!
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#50 Postby mvtrucking » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:54 pm

stormie_skies wrote:
Raebie wrote:
stormie_skies wrote:I dunno.....IMHO she looks like shes gonna split the difference between Cancun and Cozumel, only skirting across the tip of the peninsula, unless her current track takes on a more westerly component very, very soon. The NHC's 5 pm track has her crossing the full peninsula and exiting somewhere in the neighborhood of Celestun.... I don't think thats an insignificant difference in direction, not to mention contact with land.

But God only knows Ive been wrong before... :lol:


Let's be wrong together (because I agree)!


Im so glad to see Im not the only one drawing that line!!! :D


Well after the last couple of frames (2045,2115) I am starting to see this myself.What are we calling it? Lift? :eek:
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#51 Postby Galvestongirl » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:54 pm

lol, some callin it a lift, some are callin it a shimmy
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#52 Postby Raebie » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:54 pm

No, it's a definite shimmy.
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#53 Postby Stormcenter » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:55 pm

cycloneye wrote:Better wait for 6 more frames to see a trend one way or another.


I agree 100%. If it continues then I guess the NHC will comment on it in it's next full advisory.
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#54 Postby hicksta » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:56 pm

If it continues stormy. we might need to get worried agian
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#55 Postby Stormcenter » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:56 pm

Stratosphere747 wrote:What most are doing is probably one image at a time. Speed the rate up and you will see it is still going at 290.


I don't think that's the case.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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#56 Postby Stormcenter » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:58 pm

hicksta wrote:If it continues stormy. we might need to get worried agian


If I were anywhere along the lower or middle Texas coastline I'd be worried.
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#57 Postby stormie_skies » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:59 pm

hicksta wrote:If it continues stormy. we might need to get worried agian


Oh, I'm not takin my eye off this ol' girl....shes already pulled enough tricks out of her hat... :lol: And honestly, I don't know how good the models are at seeing the strength of the ridge & the coming trough, or at timing each of those elements...
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#58 Postby Stratosphere747 » Sat Jul 16, 2005 5:00 pm

Stormcenter wrote:
Stratosphere747 wrote:What most are doing is probably one image at a time. Speed the rate up and you will see it is still going at 290.


I don't think that's the case.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html


That's the problem IMO....

I use to use the floater as well, until AFM and others directed me to this site..

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html
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hicksta
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#59 Postby hicksta » Sat Jul 16, 2005 5:00 pm

Mother Nature > Computers.
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#60 Postby canegrl04 » Sat Jul 16, 2005 5:03 pm

I think by tomorrow we will see a slightly more shift to the right with the NHC forecast map
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