If I were in western Cuba

Raebie · #1 Postby **Raebie** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:00 pm

I'd be getting nervous about now...

#2 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:04 pm

A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA LATER THIS
EVENING.

From 5 PM advisorie.

#3 Postby **feederband** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:09 pm

It wouldn't take much a jog to the nw for it to go though Yuca Channel but I think western cuba is going to be out of the way..IMO.

Raebie · #4 Postby **Raebie** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:09 pm

Huh...didn't see that, was just looking at the latest visable loop. Looks to me like she's gonna clip western Cuba before entering the gulf.

Of course I have no idea what I'm talking about...

#5 Postby **jlauderdal** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:10 pm

Raebie wrote:I'd be getting nervous about now...

good point, the way this season is shaping everyone in the atlantic basin better be real nervous and ready for an intense hurricane.

Raebie · #6 Postby **Raebie** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:13 pm

Unless she assumes a more westerly track soon, I just don't see her spending much time over land, be it Cuba or the Yucatan...

Swimdude · #7 Postby **Swimdude** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:15 pm

This is so strange... Look at the path depicted below:

Something just sees off. According to the forecast cone, Emily would have to begin to take an increasingly western track IMMEDIATELY to follow inside the cone area. I find this unlikely to happen immediately... But then again, look how amazing the NHC predicted Dennis' landfall.

#8 Postby **jlauderdal** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:16 pm

Raebie wrote:I'd be getting nervous about now...

If emily keeps up this intensity poor old dennis is going to look like a wimp.

TheShrimper · #9 Postby **TheShrimper** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:18 pm

What the hell are you talking about? It is following the path so designated by the forecasted track, which corresponds to the cone. I dont know what you are seeing.

Raebie · #10 Postby **Raebie** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:19 pm

With the caveat that I have nothing to back up my opinion...that track looks too far south to me based on recent loops.

Raebie, clueless but has eyes

stormie_skies · #11 Postby **stormie_skies** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:20 pm

Swimdude wrote:This is so strange... Look at the path depicted below:

Something just sees off. According to the forecast cone, Emily would have to begin to take an increasingly western track IMMEDIATELY to follow inside the cone area. I find this unlikely to happen immediately... But then again, look how amazing the NHC predicted Dennis' landfall.

Also, it is allowing for no weakness whatsoever in the ridge over Texas - thats a change from some of the previous forecasts. Remember how a couple of the earlier maps had a more NNW/NW track past the Yucatan and then a jog nearly straight west into the TX/MX border? Now I don't see any changes at all....but they still say in the discussion that some sort of weakness has a fair chance of being there...???

I guess they are just hedging their bets.... :lol:

But if there is a weakness when Em enters the Gulf I don't see how she could maintain the exact same track....

Galvestongirl · #12 Postby **Galvestongirl** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:22 pm

Swimdude wrote:Something just sees off. According to the forecast cone, Emily would have to begin to take an increasingly western track IMMEDIATELY to follow inside the cone area. I find this unlikely to happen immediately... But then again, look how amazing the NHC predicted Dennis' landfall.

I thought it was strange to, concidering it is still going wnw, that is even more west.

#13 Postby **Stormcenter** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:22 pm

Yep I sure would be worried in Western Cuba or anywhere else. She sure does look like shes got more of northly lift in her wnw forward motion in the last few frames.

She may very well pass through the Yucatan channel. :eek:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Galvestongirl · #14 Postby **Galvestongirl** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:24 pm

If I were there....I would be peein in my pants.

Raebie · #15 Postby **Raebie** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:26 pm

I'm sorry, but to my untrained eyes, she's lifting to the north, not jogging.

#16 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:26 pm

connect the dots people, if you put a piece of paper up from the line she has already moved and connect it to the next forecast dot, it matches up, so if she continues to move the way she is now, she will hit the next dot

Website · #17 Postby **Brent** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:27 pm

She's headed right for Cozumel right now... not the Channel or Cuba.

Swimdude · #18 Postby **Swimdude** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:28 pm

Ok, there seems to be so much hostility around here, that i'll just explain my views and shut the @#$% up from now on, as it seems that's what would be preferred.

The discussion, the the advisory thread, even states that Emily is heading more northerly than before. Given, she is still moving WNW... But, further towards NW than W at the moment. [290]

What I see in the visual from wunderground, is a storm that would have to take an immediate westerly turn to follow the cone exactly in the center. If it continues on its current path, it could very well avoid land.

Raebie · #19 Postby **Raebie** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:29 pm

Or, it you run the loop and put your mouse on her current position and compare it with the past 11 frames, you can see it's a more north westerly movement than WNW.

Raebie, simplistic

#20 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:29 pm

what??? the middle of the cone is still wnw!!

If I were in western Cuba

If I were in western Cuba

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