Hurricane Emily Advisories

[johngaltfla]

Would this be the first Cat 5 hurricane in July in recorded history???????

[Hurricaneman]

yes

[JTD]

No recon- no cat 5 I guess:

Core of extremely dangerous category four Emily passing south of
western Jamaica...

a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Jamaica and for all of the
Cayman Islands.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

At 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...the government of Mexico has extended the
Hurricane Watch westward along the north coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula to Progreso. A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for the
eastern and northern coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula from Chetumal
to Progresso...including Cozumel and the islas mujeres.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the warning area within the next 36 hours.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the coast of Belize
from Belize City northward to the Belize-Mexico border. A tropical
storm watch may be required for portions of western Cuba later this
evening.

Interests elsewhere in the central and western Caribbean...and the
southern Gulf of Mexico...should monitor the progress of Emily.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Hurricane Emily was located near
latitude 16.8 north...longitude 78.8 west or about 130 miles...
210 km...south-southwest of Montego Bay Jamaica and about 235
miles... 375 km...southeast of Grand Cayman.

Emily is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph...30 km/hr...
and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24
hours. This motion should bring the center of Emily south and
southwest of western Jamaica this evening and near Grand Cayman
island tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph...250 km/hr...with higher
gusts. This makes Emily a strong category four hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson scale. Some fluctuations in strength are expected
during the next 24 hours...and Emily could become a category five
hurricane at times.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles... 95 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 150 miles...240 km. For Jamaica...hurricane force winds may
occur in gusts in rainbands along the coasts...with possible
sustained hurricane force winds at higher elevations...especially
above 3000 feet.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 937 mb...27.67 inches.
Above normal tides...accompanied by large and dangerous battering
waves...are possible along the south coasts of Jamaica and the
Cayman Islands.

Emily may produce rainfall accumulations of 5 to 8 inches over
Jamaica with maximum amounts of 15 inches over mountainous terrain.
Rainfall totals of 5 to 8 inches is possible over the Cayman
Islands...with some 1 to 3 inch amounts possible over southeastern
Cuba. Rains will be increasing over portions of the Yucatan
Peninsula on Sunday with storm total amounts of 4 to 8 inches
possible...and local maximum amounts up to 12 inches. These rains
could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...16.8 N... 78.8 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 18 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...155 mph. Minimum central pressure... 937 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 8 PM EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 11 PM EDT.

Forecaster Beven

[Wnghs2007]

Hurricane Emily Forecast/Advisory Number 24

Statement as of 21:00Z on July 16, 2005


a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Jamaica and for all of the
Cayman Islands.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

At 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...the government of Mexico has extended the
Hurricane Watch westward along the north coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula to Progreso. A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for the
eastern and northern coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula from Chetumal
to Progresso...including Cozumel and the islas mujeres.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the warning area within the next 36 hours.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the coast of Belize
from Belize City northward to the Belize-Mexico border. A tropical
storm watch may be required for portions of western Cuba later this
evening.

Interests elsewhere in the central and western Caribbean...and the
southern Gulf of Mexico...should monitor the progress of Emily.

Hurricane center located near 16.8n 78.8w at 16/2100z
position accurate within 15 nm

present movement toward the west-northwest or 290 degrees at 16 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 937 mb
eye diameter 10 nm
Max sustained winds 135 kt with gusts to 165 kt.
64 kt....... 50ne 20se 15sw 30nw.
50 kt....... 90ne 30se 25sw 50nw.
34 kt.......130ne 80se 50sw 110nw.
12 ft seas..200ne 215se 100sw 150nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 16.8n 78.8w at 16/2100z
at 16/1800z center was located near 16.4n 78.0w

forecast valid 17/0600z 17.7n 81.2w
Max wind 135 kt...gusts 165 kt.
64 kt... 60ne 20se 15sw 30nw.
50 kt... 90ne 30se 25sw 50nw.
34 kt...130ne 80se 50sw 110nw.

Forecast valid 17/1800z 19.1n 84.4w
Max wind 135 kt...gusts 165 kt.
64 kt... 60ne 30se 20sw 40nw.
50 kt...100ne 40se 30sw 60nw.
34 kt...140ne 90se 60sw 110nw.

Forecast valid 18/0600z 20.4n 87.7w...inland
Max wind 125 kt...gusts 155 kt.
64 kt... 60ne 30se 20sw 40nw.
50 kt...100ne 40se 30sw 60nw.
34 kt...140ne 90se 60sw 110nw.

Forecast valid 18/1800z 21.6n 90.7w...over water
Max wind 100 kt...gusts 120 kt.
50 kt...100ne 40se 30sw 60nw.
34 kt...140ne 100se 60sw 120nw.

Forecast valid 19/1800z 23.5n 96.0w
Max wind 105 kt...gusts 130 kt.
50 kt...100ne 50se 40sw 70nw.
34 kt...150ne 100se 70sw 130nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 20/1800z 25.0n 100.5w...inland
Max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt.

Outlook valid 21/1800z 26.0n 104.5w...inland dissipating
Max wind 20 kt...gusts 25 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 16.8n 78.8w

next advisory at 17/0300z

forecaster Beven


$$

[wxwatcher91]

just think... this could have thwarted a record... and the intermediates arent kept either... Emily HAS to be a cat 5 at the 11pm report...

[Wnghs2007]

just think... this could have thwarted a record... and the intermediates arent kept either... Emily HAS to be a cat 5 at the 11pm report...

It is very possible that the system could continue to hold its own and not have an ERC until tomorrow Morning. And this would probally allow it to strength so whent he Recon goes into it tonight they could find a CAT 5 hurricane.

Wow what a season so far.

[cycloneye]

[InimanaChoogamaga]

Is that .4N and .8W since the last advisory? That seems more northerly than the last advisories. Is is just a wobble?

[gkrangers]

just think... this could have thwarted a record... and the intermediates arent kept either... Emily HAS to be a cat 5 at the 11pm report...

Why does it have to be? Latest recon, as pointed out, supported 1 minute sustained winds (which is what they use for intensity) of strong category 4 status.

[ALhurricane]

Patience... recon is on their way right now. If it is a Cat 5 then Recon will find it in a few hours. I believe the NHC just wants confirmation it's a Cat 5 before they declare it as such.

[cycloneye]

Patience... recon is on their way right now. If it is a Cat 5 then Recon will find it in a few hours. I believe the NHC just wants confirmation it's a Cat 5 before they declare it as such.

Bingo AL.

[Hurricaneman]

They're being careful in upgrading it

[johngaltfla]

Jesus. What will August and September be like??????????

I fear for one of the major Florida cities this summer, I really do.

[Wnghs2007]

Patience... recon is on their way right now. If it is a Cat 5 then Recon will find it in a few hours. I believe the NHC just wants confirmation it's a Cat 5 before they declare it as such.

Yeah if Recon goes out there and finds pressures in the low 930's or upper 920's and flight level winds near 160 knts then you will be seeing a Cat 5 at 11 Pm....

[mike18xx]

just think... this could have thwarted a record...

Don't worry; Emily isn't yet in the real "sweet spot" of the northwestern Caribbean.

Just wait until tomorrow morning for real eye-poppin' satellite shots with starburst feeder-band activity in all quadrants.

[deltadog03]

Is that .4N and .8W since the last advisory? That seems more northerly than the last advisories. Is is just a wobble?

yeah....4N and .8W....i think that is a little more north than before...not sure if its a wobble...

[cycloneye]

253
WTNT45 KNHC 162100
TCDAT5
HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005

EMILY HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON. AT ABOUT 17Z...AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 937 MB...WITH 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS AS HIGH AS 151 KT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THIS SUPPORTS
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 135 KT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT EMILY
HAS GOTTEN STRONGER SINCE THE AIRCRAFT LEFT THE STORM. HOWEVER...
THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE DOES NOT YET SUPPORT STRONGER WINDS...SO
ANY FURTHER INCREASE IN THE INTITAL WINDS WILL WAIT FOR THE NEXT
AIRCRAFT SCHEDULED NEAR 00Z.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 290/16. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS NO
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. EMILY IS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF
A DEEP LAYER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS FLORIDA INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THIS RIDGE
SHOULD BUILD SLOWLY WESTWARD...WITH PERHAPS A WEAKNESS REMAINING
OVER EASTERN TEXAS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTH
CENTRAL U.S. EMILY SHOULD CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 36-48
HR...WHICH SHOULD TAKE THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO. AFTER THAT...THE EXACT TRACK DEPENDS ON HOW
MUCH WEAKNESS THERE IS IN THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE THE LAST SET OF RUNS...EXCEPT FOR THE
UKMET...WHICH IS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH AND IS NOW THE RIGHT OUTLIER.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE UKMET AND THE NOGAPS IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH GUNS...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE RIGHT EDGE OF THE
ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE. THE NEW TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK THROUGH 36 HR...THEN SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTHWARD THEREAFTER.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC. THE SHIPS MODEL HAS
20 KT OF SHEAR AFFECTING EMILY FROM WHICH IT FORECASTS WEAKENING...
BUT THIS SHEAR IS NOT APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OR SATELLITE-
DERIVED WINDS FROM CIMSS. A RECENT TRMM OVERPASS SHOWED NO
EVIDENCE OF AN OUTER EYEWALL...ALTHOUGH THERE WAS SOME OUTER
BANDING THAT COULD SOON WRAP UP INTO AN OUTER EYEWALL.
COMPLICATING MATTERS FURTHER...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A MAXIMUM
POTENTIAL INTENSITY OF 155-160 KT...WHILE MAXIMUM POTENTIAL
INTENSITIES FROM COLA ARE CLOSER TO 135 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE SCENARIO THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS WILL OSCILLATE AROUND
135 KT AS THE HURRICANE GOES THROUGH INTERNAL CYCLES. HOWEVER...IT
WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE IF EMILY BECAME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE
FOR SOME PART OF THE NEXT 24 HR. EMILY SHOULD WEAKEN OVER
YUCATAN...BUT STILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO.

12 FT SEAS RADII WERE GREATLY REVISED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA BUOY 42058. THE INITIAL WIND RADII
WERE SOMEWHAT REVISED BASED ON AIRCRAFT DATA.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/2100Z 16.8N 78.8W 135 KT
12HR VT 17/0600Z 17.7N 81.2W 135 KT
24HR VT 17/1800Z 19.1N 84.4W 135 KT
36HR VT 18/0600Z 20.4N 87.7W 125 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 18/1800Z 21.6N 90.7W 100 KT...OVER WATER
72HR VT 19/1800Z 23.5N 96.0W 105 KT
96HR VT 20/1800Z 25.0N 100.5W 65 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 21/1800Z 26.0N 104.5W 20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING

[mike18xx]

"....estimated...."

*Shrug* Until the next plane is in, they have exactly the same tools you and I do: satellite & local reports.

[wxwatcher91]

dang it cycloneye! you beat me to it AGAIN! lol

[Swimdude]

Jeez... I go and take a 3 hour nap, wake up, expecting a cat. 5... And there isn't one!

It's like a birthday present that I know is coming, but I can't quite reach. Phooey.