H Emily Recon Reports=Next Mission this evening

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

But can this storm hold on for another 7 hours?

[jkt21787]

But can this storm hold on for another 7 hours?

Thats a good, key question. An EWRC seems almost certain in the very near future, and I don't know if it hold off until after the evening recon fix.

[clfenwi]

Well, if a replacement cycle does hit it, there's always a chance after... Ivan and Allen both hit cat 5 and dropped to cat 4 before going back to cat 5 and maxxing out... Gilbert hit cat 5 only once, but that wasn't until he got to 82.5 West...

[Scorpion]

NHC is going to keep this at 155 mph for 5 PM I bet. This is a true Cat 5 I cant believe NHC is doing this its a historic event.

[jkt21787]

NHC is going to keep this at 155 mph for 5 PM I bet. This is a true Cat 5 I cant believe NHC is doing this its a historic event.

1 mph is not a huge deal except to weather weenies. The damage will still be catastrophic. If recon goes in this evening and finds a stronger system then, they will upgrade it. Its quite possible even if now it doesn't get upgraded, it will in the future on further analysis.

[gkrangers]

NHC is going to keep this at 155 mph for 5 PM I bet. This is a true Cat 5 I cant believe NHC is doing this its a historic event.

They are the EXPERTS. Let them handle it, k? If they wanna call it a Cat 4, its a Cat 4.

[mike18xx]

An EWRC seems almost certain in the very near future.

Why? EWRC's aren't clockwork expectations, and the "stadium effect" 12-15 mile-wide eye is a pretty stable entity. If, west of Jamaica over maximum oceanic content, there is an EWRC, it'll probably be because hurricane-force wind radii are expanding dramatically, and the cycle could occur in tandam with (as opposed to) pressure falls and msw increases. A complete EWRC can also occur extremely rapidly as compared to weaker storms, such as in less than an hour.

[jkt21787]

An EWRC seems almost certain in the very near future.

Why? EWRC's aren't clockwork expectations, and the "stadium effect" 12-15 mile-wide eye is a pretty stable entity. If, west of Jamaica over maximum oceanic content, there is an EWRC, it'll probably be because hurricane-force wind radii are expanding dramatically, and the cycle could occur in tandam with (as opposed to) pressure falls and msw increases. A complete EWRC can also occur extremely rapidly as compared to weaker storms, such as in less than an hour.

Why? Because they're common in hurricanes of this intensity. I'm not saying one will happen soon, but it will happen at some point most likely. Given the nice stadium effect, it could in fact be a while though. We will have to wait and see.

[gkrangers]

It went through an ERC Thursday night and Friday night...didn't it?

Its possible it follows that trend and goes through one late tonight.

Impossible to forecast, but just a thought.

[senorpepr]

Okay... you want to know another reason why NHC isn't upgrading this to category five? That 151kt report was a 30-sec peak wind. That doesn't quite make the standard "one-min average sustained" criteria. The highest sustained winds they've recorded was 148kt. Do the math... 153mph which rounds up to 155 mph. Category four.

NHC was right on their call. This isn't quite five status yet. This isn't about "being a weather weenie" and being scientific. Right, there isn't much of a difference, but let's call it as it is. 148kt sustained with a peak of 151 within a 30-second period. It doesn't quite cut it.

Trust me, the situation we are in now has happened many times before. Many. No storm, other than Andrew, was upgraded to category five on an end-of-year best track. If no further deepening occurs with Emily, it would also most likely remain category four in the best track.

Sorry, that may come as a sad note to those rooting for a cat five, but either way, the NHC is calling it by standards and regardless, Emily poses a grave threat.

[Sanibel]

Input -

Climatology supports strengthening in hurricanes moving west under Jamaica...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Any way its still tighting at this moment. The red has reformed around the clearly defined eye. Outflow is becoming beter oreganized. The pressure is most likely still falling like it did earlier.

[gkrangers]

Okay... you want to know another reason why NHC isn't upgrading this to category five? That 151kt report was a 30-sec peak wind. That doesn't quite make the standard "one-min average sustained" criteria. The highest sustained winds they've recorded was 148kt. Do the math... 153mph which rounds up to 155 mph. Category four.

NHC was right on their call. This isn't quite five status yet. This isn't about "being a weather weenie" and being scientific. Right, there isn't much of a difference, but let's call it as it is. 148kt sustained with a peak of 151 within a 30-second period. It doesn't quite cut it.

Trust me, the situation we are in now has happened many times before. Many. No storm, other than Andrew, was upgraded to category five on an end-of-year best track. If no further deepening occurs with Emily, it would also most likely remain category four in the best track.

Sorry, that may come as a sad note to those rooting for a cat five, but either way, the NHC is calling it by standards and regardless, Emily poses a grave threat.

Good post, rely on the Vortex Message winds, as those are 1 minute, correct?

[jkt21787]

Okay... you want to know another reason why NHC isn't upgrading this to category five? That 151kt report was a 30-sec peak wind. That doesn't quite make the standard "one-min average sustained" criteria. The highest sustained winds they've recorded was 148kt. Do the math... 153mph which rounds up to 155 mph. Category four.

NHC was right on their call. This isn't quite five status yet. This isn't about "being a weather weenie" and being scientific. Right, there isn't much of a difference, but let's call it as it is. 148kt sustained with a peak of 151 within a 30-second period. It doesn't quite cut it.

Trust me, the situation we are in now has happened many times before. Many. No storm, other than Andrew, was upgraded to category five on an end-of-year best track. If no further deepening occurs with Emily, it would also most likely remain category four in the best track.

Sorry, that may come as a sad note to those rooting for a cat five, but either way, the NHC is calling it by standards and regardless, Emily poses a grave threat.

I think you just practically stuck a knife in the hearts of many on this board with those comments!

Its a strong cat 4, thats the bottom line here. Its not a cat 5 now. Does that mean it won't become one in the next few hours if not already, absolutely not. But right now we don't have a category 5 hurricane, but neverthes less the situation is very serious for Yucatan residents and also increasingly for the Caymans.

[mike18xx]

NHC is going to keep this at 155 mph for 5 PM I bet. This is a true Cat 5 I cant believe NHC is doing this its a historic event.

They are the EXPERTS. Let them handle it, k? If they wanna call it a Cat 4, its a Cat 4.

*Shrug* A lot of people were calling Andrew a cat-5 for ages and ages upon all kinds of physical and other evidence; it took a decade for the reclassification to come, and sonde extrapolations are now computed differently as a result.

As the 'net gets better and better, mere proletarians will increasingly have access to near-real-time tools equivalent to that at the disposal of "the experts", and the appeal-to-authority fallacy will become increasingly threadbare. At that point, of course, one's record is of considerably more importance than whether or not you've managed employment.

Frankly, the insistance upon sticking with models ubiquitously forecasting 110kt maximum intensities (until "set up" exceeds that) in WNW Caribbean hurricanes is something I just don't understand. They have to know such critters are inadequate to the task.

I can only conclude that there are vanishing few who'll go out on a limb to make *human* predictions, and would instead rather let an algorithm "take the responsibility". Frankly, it's an excercise in bureaucratic butt-covering -- no one wants to take the blame for a 'bust'.

-- While it may take more balls than some have to predict a cat-5 from two or three days away, how much doubt is there, really, that almost any non-recurving WNW-tracker in the west-CAR in a non-El-Nino year will make at least cat-4 provided it's already a cat-2 in the east end? How many on record haven't in the satellite era? Less than 20%?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Any way you cut it the reds have reformed around the eye. The pressure is likely still droping.

[senorpepr]

Okay, mission IX (AF flight 305) has begun, but I won't be decoding any observations from this aircraft. This aircraft is performing an upper-level synoptic flight, flying at 24,000 to 30,000ft. However... mission X should be preparing for takeoff any time now. Once they get rolling down the runway, I'll pass it along here. I will begin decoding mission X as they approach Emily.

BTW, you can grab raw observations off of S2K's recon page at http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/recon.htm