Coming closer to Cayman than previously thought

[Derek Ortt]

the WNW turn seems to have occurred a little sooner than expected and could now bring the storm very near cayman. Any deviation to the right will mean a repeat of Ivan... if not worse

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The over all Cdo/Eye is starting to looks like Ivan if not better at this stage/area.

[deltadog03]

the WNW turn seems to ahve occurred a little sooner than expected and could now bring the storm very near cayman. Any deviation to the right will mean a repeat of Ivan... if not worse

thanks Derek, and yes i agree...

[Brent]

...and over less of the Yucatan.

This is very bad.

[Brent]

I noticed this on the 2pm advisory:

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF EMILY SOUTH OF
JAMAICA THIS AFTERNOON AND NEAR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND TONIGHT.

The 11am track wasn't all that close IMO.

[deltadog03]

I noticed this on the 2pm advisory:

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF EMILY SOUTH OF
JAMAICA THIS AFTERNOON AND NEAR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND TONIGHT.

The 11am track wasn't all that close IMO.

It wasn't nearly that close to grand cayman....this will be VERY intereting to watch play out....

[Stratosphere747]

I've noticed a more 290 heading since early this morning. Chalked it up to the "wobbling"

Though this heading has seemed to be fairly consistent. I would have thought though that with the High being forecasted as so strong, that it would have stayed on the 285 or even less.

What seems like a insignificant motion could prove to be catastrophic.

[corpusbreeze]

Emily has been giving the NHC fits on the forecast track. It has not done anything the NHC has forecasted it to do. Even you have been flipping right, left on her track, not by much I will add. I think this will be a hard one to call.

[tailgater]

If Emily continues on this current path of about 290 degrees over the last 3 hours it won't get that close to G.C. but it does take it almost directly into Cozmel.

[canegrl04]

she has gotten stronger than the NHC had counted on.And since a strong cane tends to pull northward,it has caught them by surprise.This will indeed factor into the projected path down the road espicially if she pulls north even more

[deltadog03]

she has gotten stronger than the NHC had counted on.And since a strong cane tends to pull northward,it has caught them by surprise.This will indeed factor into the projected path down the road espicially if she pulls north even more

very good point...also, everyone look at my GOM VIS topic...clearly shows at least some weakness in the western gulf...

[jwayne]

I'll tell you one thing: if this thing does "go right", moving 20mph and goes through the channel, the mets better be right about the ridge strengthing or someone on the Texas coast is gonna get hammered because there won't be enough time to adequately move people. JMO

Derek, is this move right significant or too early to tell?

[jlauderdal]

I'll tell you one thing: if this thing does "go right", moving 20mph and goes through the channel, the mets better be right about the ridge strengthing or someone on the Texas coast is gonna get hammered because there won't be enough time to adequately move people. JMO

Derek, is this move right significant or too early to tell?

Bob Breck sounded the all clear a week ago for all interests in United States.

[WeatherEmperor]

I'll tell you one thing: if this thing does "go right", moving 20mph and goes through the channel, the mets better be right about the ridge strengthing or someone on the Texas coast is gonna get hammered because there won't be enough time to adequately move people. JMO

Derek, is this move right significant or too early to tell?

Bob Breck sounded the all clear a week ago for all interests in United States.

Oh mr.Breck is so reliable isnt he?

<RICKY>

[dixiebreeze]

the WNW turn seems to have occurred a little sooner than expected and could now bring the storm very near cayman. Any deviation to the right will mean a repeat of Ivan... if not worse

Thought a couple days ago that everyone along the entire GOM should be alert for Emily. Also, the ridge doesn't look all THAT strong.

[BLHutch]

I'll tell you one thing: if this thing does "go right", moving 20mph and goes through the channel, the mets better be right about the ridge strengthing or someone on the Texas coast is gonna get hammered because there won't be enough time to adequately move people. JMO

You are 100 percent correct. If she goes blowing through the Yucatan Channel and sets her eyes on the area between Freeport and Galveston, we will have a major disaster on our hands. A fast moving major hurricane is the worst thing that could happen here. IMO

That said, I wish people in the area were paying a little more attention to the storm. She is too far out to know for certain where she will end up. I, for one, do not plan on being caught by surprise.

Brady

[Sanibel]

Emily passed 95-100 miles south of Great Pedro Bluff Jamaica.


Even if it did shoot the channel and head towards Texas it won't move fast into the shortwave over Texas - but it won't do that.

[Derek Ortt]

no, there is not much significance to whether it hits Cayman vs Texas

the repeat of Ivan would be at Cayman alone, not the USA

[TheShrimper]

Dont think so, it would have to traverse 315 degrees th hit G.C.

[Normandy]

Dont think so, it would have to traverse 315 degrees th hit G.C.

Well to pass over....but I think Derek might be talking about a brush with the northern eyewall.