H Emily Recon Reports=Next Mission this evening

[Normandy]

Yes but technically a Cat 5 is anything 156 mph or greater.

Yes, but technically that rounds down to 155, which is cat 4.

The text books say 156 mph is a cat5...I think they should. A very weak one at that.

Actually, the text books don't say just 156 mph winds. Pressure and storm surge are also big factors... technically speaking.

That is not true, the winds make a Categoruu 5 hurricane. Charley could have been a Cat 5 with a 935 pressure no problem...pressure does not necesarilly determine the winds, there are other factors (such as gradient and size).

[tomboudreau]

This is like splitting hairs. Its a borderline Cat 5 system. Either way you look at it, this system is going to cause a ton of damage, going to kill people, and going to cause many headaches. The people down there are going to be raked over the coals tomorrow by Emily.

*steps off soap box and ends the rant*

[dhweather]

Yes but technically a Cat 5 is anything 156 mph or greater.

Yes, but technically that rounds down to 155, which is cat 4.

The text books say 156 mph is a cat5...I think they should. A very weak one at that.

Actually, the text books don't say just 156 mph winds. Pressure and storm surge are also big factors... technically speaking.

Then they need not say 156 mph is cat5...Lets make are system by 5s makes 160 cat5. Do you agree?

Per the NHC - GREATER THAN 155MPH is a cat 5 wind.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshs.shtml


Category Five Hurricane:
Winds greater than 155 mph (135 kt or 249 km/hr). Storm surge generally greater than 18 ft above normal. Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. All shrubs, trees, and signs blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Severe and extensive window and door damage. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of all structures located less than 15 ft above sea level and within 500 yards of the shoreline. Massive evacuation of residential areas on low ground within 5-10 miles (8-16 km) of the shoreline may be required. Hurricane Mitch of 1998 was a Category Five hurricane at peak intensity over the western Caribbean. Hurricane Gilbert of 1988 was a Category Five hurricane at peak intensity and is one of the strongest Atlantic tropical cyclones of record.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

151 knots/156 mph is greater then 155 mph? I will always unoffical see Emily a cat5.

[Terry]

Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane.

People in St. Marks and Apalachicola, FL will tell you that it is more like 12 hours before landfall.

[Thunder44]

URNT11 KNHC 161815
97779 18114 70178 75200 70200 15039 65721 /5763
RMK AF302 0705A EMILY OB 29
LAST REPORT

The plane is leaving

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

URNT11 KNHC 161815
97779 18114 70178 75200 70200 15039 65721 /5763
RMK AF302 0705A EMILY OB 29
LAST REPORT

The plane is leaving

Thats just the way it go's some times Hopefully another one is waiting. This is getting close to land need 3 hour reports.

[Innotech]

this hting is absolutely Cat 5. Call it NHC!!

[clfenwi]

According to the POD 3 hour fixes start on (checks calendar)...doh...Monday), next flight is scheduled to enter the storm this evening...

[Brent]

URNT11 KNHC 161815
97779 18114 70178 75200 70200 15039 65721 /5763
RMK AF302 0705A EMILY OB 29
LAST REPORT

The plane is leaving

Thats just the way it go's some times Hopefully another one is waiting. This is getting close to land need 3 hour reports.

Next fix not til 8pm EDT. 3-hour fixes start Monday after it passes the Yucatan.

[drezee]

Storm EMILY: Observed By AF #302
Storm #05 in Atlantic Ocean1
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 151KT (173.7mph 279.7km/h) In NE Quadrant At 15:18:30 Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 135.9KT (156.3mph 251.7km/h) *
Date/Time of Recon Report: NaN (NaN)
Position of the center: 16° 22' N 077° 52' W (16.4°N 77.9°W)
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 700mb: 2549m (Normal: 3011)
Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 25 KT (28.75MPH 46.3km/h)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 103nm (118.45miles) From Center At Bearing 317°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 141KT (162.15mph 261.1km/h) From 052°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 008nm (9.2 miles) From Center At Bearing 335°
Minimum pressure: 937mb (27.67in)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: CLOSED
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being Circular , 11 nm (12.7 mi 20.4km) wide
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 700mb
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.02nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 2nm
* = Estimated Surface Winds are assumed 90% of Max Flight Level Winds

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Storm EMILY: Observed By AF #302
Storm #05 in Atlantic Ocean1
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 151KT (173.7mph 279.7km/h) In NE Quadrant At 15:18:30 Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 135.9KT (156.3mph 251.7km/h) *
Date/Time of Recon Report: NaN (NaN)
Position of the center: 16° 22' N 077° 52' W (16.4°N 77.9°W)
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 700mb: 2549m (Normal: 3011)
Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 25 KT (28.75MPH 46.3km/h)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 103nm (118.45miles) From Center At Bearing 317°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 141KT (162.15mph 261.1km/h) From 052°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 008nm (9.2 miles) From Center At Bearing 335°
Minimum pressure: 937mb (27.67in)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: CLOSED
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being Circular , 11 nm (12.7 mi 20.4km) wide
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 700mb
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.02nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 2nm
* = Estimated Surface Winds are assumed 90% of Max Flight Level Winds

Yeah that is true

[Brent]

They obviously rounded down... 155 mph might as well be a Cat 5 since the damage is going to be the same.

[jkt21787]

Yes, that VDM was already reported, and thats what the NHC used to justify the 155 mph at 2 pm. Now the debate begins, should they have upgraded to a true cat 5 or not based on this?

[clfenwi]

Although...what are the WP-3s up to? NOAA3 had been flying out of Costa rica the past few nights checking a suspect area in the Pacific, and it looks like it was doing training yesterday evening/night.... Costa Rica is a slight bit closer than any other launch point... their most recent POD doesn't indicate anything though.. hmm.......

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

156 mph is cat5 plain in Sample...It is still deeping at this moment the eye is becoming more defined...The cdo has improved slightly over the last few frames.

[cycloneye]

As recon will not be there this afternoon the 5 PM advisorie will consist of sat estimates indicating that they will be cautious when upgrading is concerned.They will wait for recon this evening to have the real raw data.

[baitism]

Oh well. Its the same storm whether its cat 4 or 5. Its not going to change how much damage it does.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If they go by that cycloneye it would have to form a black ring around the eye.

[arlwx]

I sincerely doubt NHC will alter its conservatism for the 5 pm advisory. If the evening recon flights show significant further decreases in pressure and/or increased winds, then NHC may change its mind by 11 pm.