Eye looking incredible now!

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Ziplock
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Eye looking incredible now!

#1 Postby Ziplock » Sat Jul 16, 2005 12:28 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

The eye has cleared and looks perfectly symmetrical. The best Emily has looked so far. VErrry impressive....I can't believe with this satelite presentation that she is not at Cat 5 intensity right now!

Zip
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Hurricaneman
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#2 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Jul 16, 2005 12:29 pm

She'll be one by tonight probably
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#3 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Jul 16, 2005 12:29 pm

I think recon will find it down a few more millibars with increase in over all winds. This is going to be close. But because of the warming cloud tops over the western tops I say it will come short.
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#4 Postby Scorpion » Sat Jul 16, 2005 12:29 pm

She likely is a Cat 5 right now.
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#5 Postby jkt21787 » Sat Jul 16, 2005 12:31 pm

I wouldn't doubt a cat 5 tonight. Recon has reported 141 kts in the latest pass, which is actually down since last, but I'm not sure they've made a complete pass through the storm yet.

She is looking extremely impressive right now. Even better than Dennis, IMO.
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#6 Postby Swimdude » Sat Jul 16, 2005 12:31 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:She'll be one by tonight probably


Eh, i'd say that if she isn't one by the 5 p.m. tonight, she'll never be. Why? She has to go through an EWRC some time or another. That could be in an hour. Could be in 12 hours. We don't know. But she can't keep intensifying forever.
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#7 Postby jkt21787 » Sat Jul 16, 2005 12:33 pm

151 kts reported, which equates to a 136 kts at the surface, which is 156 mph. Now, NHC decided the 148 kt ob earlier was too high, so the question remains whether they think its too high again,
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#8 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Jul 16, 2005 12:37 pm

It will not have to get much stronger to become a cat5.
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#9 Postby Normandy » Sat Jul 16, 2005 12:38 pm

So per recon Emily has become the first Cat5 in July in recorded history.
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#10 Postby Swimdude » Sat Jul 16, 2005 12:38 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:It will not have to get much stronger to become a cat5.


Yeah, technically, 156 mph. Unfortunately, the NHC doesn't seem to deem this a fact until an advisory comes out with winds of 160 mph.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#11 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Jul 16, 2005 12:39 pm

156 mph is cat5..But will the nhc jump? The nhc would have to see reds coming back for them to do that.
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#12 Postby Ziplock » Sat Jul 16, 2005 12:40 pm

Swimdude wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:She'll be one by tonight probably


Eh, i'd say that if she isn't one by the 5 p.m. tonight, she'll never be. Why? She has to go through an EWRC some time or another. That could be in an hour. Could be in 12 hours. We don't know. But she can't keep intensifying forever.


Judging by the diameter of the eye, and the symmetry, I don't think collapse signalling the beginning of an ERC will be in the next few hours...it will be a while before she can contract this eye, IMO.
Zip
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#13 Postby ohiostorm » Sat Jul 16, 2005 12:56 pm

The eye looks like a stadium.
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#14 Postby canegrl04 » Sat Jul 16, 2005 1:07 pm

This is crazy :eek: Cat 5s are just not suppose to happen in July
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#15 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Jul 16, 2005 1:08 pm

Well, it can happen with the right conditions
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#16 Postby Sanibel » Sat Jul 16, 2005 2:03 pm

Obvious stadium effect now.

No reason not to expect notch up to category 5 now.
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#17 Postby senorpepr » Sat Jul 16, 2005 2:12 pm

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/trop ... LATEST.jpg

Impressive.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#18 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Jul 16, 2005 2:13 pm

Looks like Ivan if not better.
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#19 Postby jkt21787 » Sat Jul 16, 2005 2:15 pm

Talk about stadium effect, one of the better I've ever seen.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#20 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Jul 16, 2005 2:16 pm

This is showing Ivan the door right now. :eek:
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