If it does continue more WNW'd....

#1 Postby **skysummit** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 9:12 am

to northwestward, who thinks it will actually turn back towards the west? IMO, if it makes it through the Yuc Channel, I think south Texas would be a better bet than Mexico. There looks to be an ULL near the Texas/Mexico border and a trough coming down from the extreme NW US. I don't think the trough will make it all the way south, but may it would push the ULL further south and east and cause Emily to take a more NW'd course?

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/w ... em&type=wv

This is just my amateur observation and I have no background in meteorology what so ever.

Any thoughts? I just can't see her continuing a straight W-WNW movement over the next few days.[/url]

canegrl04 · #2 Postby **canegrl04** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 9:26 am

I think where she goes once she crosses the Yucatan channel is still an open question.Theres still a chance she could make landfall on the S.Texas coast

Scorpion · #3 Postby **Scorpion** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 9:27 am

If it continues WNW it will hit Cozumel and Cancun and might hit the Tex/Mex border.

boca · #4 Postby **boca** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 9:28 am

Question is will the high pressure hold that far west to keep it WNW.

#5 Postby **skysummit** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 9:30 am

boca wrote:Question is will the high pressure hold that far west to keep it WNW.

That is what I'm wondering about too. If she slows down just a tad, there will be more of a chance of that high backing off.

Mac · #6 Postby **Mac** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 9:30 am

Just a caveat...

she's also north of her forecast track right now. A westward jog could change that, but she will need a westward jog or she'll be closer to the tip of the Yucatan than currently forecast.

stormie_skies · #7 Postby **stormie_skies** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 9:31 am

There is also the issue of this trough the NHC mentioned at 5am, its impact on the ridge, and Miss Em's timing (will she be there to take advantage of any possible weakness, and how far north will she get before she hits the ridge again?). I don't know that any of these things can be forecasted 100% until she is crossing the Yucatan and we know a little more.....

#8 Postby **Portastorm** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 9:31 am

The Storm2K Emily Wobblefest ... has begun .... :wink:

Stratosphere747 · #9 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 9:32 am

Mac wrote:Just a caveat...

she's also north of her forecast track right now. A westward jog could change that, but she will need a westward jog or she'll be closer to the tip of the Yucatan than currently forecast.

I thought it was starting to go on a more 290 heading, but sure it was just a "wobble"

Still looks right on the forecast track. Hopefully for Grand Cayman it stays on a 285 heading..

Mac · #10 Postby **Mac** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 9:35 am

It still looks to be on the same heading, but if you input the forecast track on the sat image it is obvious that Emma is above it. I can't guarantee there isn't some issue with the angle of the sat that is affecting that, but, according to sat presentation and tracking marks, she's north of it right now.

#11 Postby **skysummit** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 9:36 am

We don't have many visible images available right now, but I don't see too many wobbles yet.

#12 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 9:38 am

Mac wrote:Just a caveat...

she's also north of her forecast track right now. A westward jog could change that, but she will need a westward jog or she'll be closer to the tip of the Yucatan than currently forecast.

If you look at a long (18-24hr) satellite loop then you can see a clear trochoidial motion (wobbling) left and right of the forecast track. At present, the eye is near the peak of a northward wobble.

Ixolib · #13 Postby **Ixolib** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 9:39 am

Portastorm wrote:The Storm2K Emily Wobblefest ... has begun ....

Jogs to the left of me, wobbles to the right
Hear I am, stuck in the middle with you

Some of our younger members may not recognize the tune... :wink:

Mac · #14 Postby **Mac** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 9:40 am

wxman57 wrote:
Mac wrote:Just a caveat...

she's also north of her forecast track right now. A westward jog could change that, but she will need a westward jog or she'll be closer to the tip of the Yucatan than currently forecast.

If you look at a long (18-24hr) satellite loop then you can see a clear trochoidial motion (wobbling) left and right of the forecast track. At present, the eye is near the peak of a northward wobble.

I can buy that. But the eye is also nearly due east of the next forecast point. So it would seem like it would take one hell of a westward wobble to put her back on her forecast track. I admit I may be wrong. It wouldn't be the first time. Just ask my wife. According to her, I'm wrong more than right. :roll:

#15 Postby **Portastorm** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 9:43 am

Ixolib wrote:
Portastorm wrote:The Storm2K Emily Wobblefest ... has begun ....

Jogs to the left of me, wobbles to the right
Hear I am, stuck in the middle with you

Some of our younger members may not recognize the tune...

Ah yes! That classic Stealers Wheel track from 1973. Very good! :lol:

perk · #16 Postby **perk** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 9:51 am

Wxman57(trochoidial) that one went right over my head. :eek:

stormie_skies · #17 Postby **stormie_skies** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 9:56 am

She is moving a bit more to the north....290 according to the latest advisory.....whether or not this will make a significant track difference remains to be seen......

Ixolib · #18 Postby **Ixolib** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 9:58 am

Portastorm wrote:
Ixolib wrote:
Portastorm wrote:The Storm2K Emily Wobblefest ... has begun ....

Jogs to the left of me, wobbles to the right
Hear I am, stuck in the middle with you

Some of our younger members may not recognize the tune...

Ah yes! That classic Stealers Wheel track from 1973. Very good!

Been stuck in my head for a while now - ever since the infamous wobble threads of Dennis!! :lol:

How many more wobbles does this season have to offer???

arlwx · #19 Postby **arlwx** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 10:29 am

Emily has moved .3 by .7 between the 5-8 am advisories, between the 8-11 am advisories too. If it held that track over the next 15 hours or so, it would go about 100 miles SW of Grand Cayman. Extrapolation of the track would put it potentially into the Brownsville-Corpus Christi area.

However, as we have seen already, Emily will dance with other weather features as SHE wants to, not necessarily as forecast by others.

stormie_skies · #20 Postby **stormie_skies** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 11:19 am

arlwx wrote:Emily has moved .3 by .7 between the 5-8 am advisories, between the 8-11 am advisories too. If it held that track over the next 15 hours or so, it would go about 100 miles SW of Grand Cayman. Extrapolation of the track would put it potentially into the Brownsville-Corpus Christi area.

However, as we have seen already, Emily will dance with other weather features as SHE wants to, not necessarily as forecast by others.

Assuming this is true (and I admittedly dont have the time or patience to check right now....chores are calling...lol....) and an extrap track would be Brownsville or maybe even north....then what about this weakness in the ridge that is supposed to pull Em northwest for a short period of time? Assuming she stays on her present track (290) and this weakness does exist, wouldn't she pretty much have to go southwest to hit the TX/MX border???

I know there is something Im not seeing here.... :wall:

If it does continue more WNW'd....

If it does continue more WNW'd....

Trochoidial

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