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000
WTNT65 KNHC 160716
TCUAT5
HURRICANE EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
315 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATES HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTENDS
FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...
SHORTLY BEFORE 300 AM EDT...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE OF 953 MB AND A
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 131 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT ON THE
OUTBOUND LEG. THIS WIND SPEED IS ROUGHLY EQUAL TO A SURFACE WIND OF
118 KT...OR 136 MPH...WHICH MAKES EMILY A SOLID CATEGORY 4
HURRICANE.
EQUALLY IMPORTANT IS THAT JUST 90 NMI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 88-92 KT...OR APPROXIMATELY 79-83 KT/90-95
MPH...WERE INDICATED IN THE LARGE OUTER RAIN BAND THAT HAS FORMED
DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. IF THE RAIN BAND PERSISTS...THEN
HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS...WITH POSSIBLY SUSTAINED
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MAY OCCUR LATER TODAY
AS EMILY PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA.
FORECASTER STEWART
Hurricane Emily Advisories
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southerngale
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James
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000
WTNT35 KNHC 160832
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST SAT JUL 16 2005
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE EMILY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO
PORT-AU-PRINCE.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 75.8 WEST OR ABOUT 180 MILES...
285 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 440
MILES... 705 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.
EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES EMILY IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS NOW EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 150 MILES...240 KM. FOR JAMAICA...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY
OCCUR IN GUSTS LATER TODAY ALONG THE COASTS...WITH POSSIBLE
SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY
ABOVE 3000 FEET.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.
EMILY MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER
JAMAICA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...15.6 N... 75.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 950 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM AST.
FORECASTER STEWART
$$
WTNT35 KNHC 160832
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST SAT JUL 16 2005
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE EMILY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO
PORT-AU-PRINCE.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 75.8 WEST OR ABOUT 180 MILES...
285 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 440
MILES... 705 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.
EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES EMILY IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS NOW EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 150 MILES...240 KM. FOR JAMAICA...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY
OCCUR IN GUSTS LATER TODAY ALONG THE COASTS...WITH POSSIBLE
SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY
ABOVE 3000 FEET.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.
EMILY MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER
JAMAICA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...15.6 N... 75.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 950 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM AST.
FORECASTER STEWART
$$
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James
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000
WTNT25 KNHC 160833
TCMAT5
HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005
0900Z SAT JUL 16 2005
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO
PORT-AU-PRINCE.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 75.8W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT.......130NE 80SE 50SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 125SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 75.8W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 75.0W
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.3N 78.3W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 80SE 50SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.5N 81.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 80SE 50SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 18.9N 84.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 60SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 20.3N 87.6W...INLAND OVER YUCATAN
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 60SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 23.1N 92.9W...OVER SOUTHWESTERN GULFMEX
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT...100NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 70SW 130NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 25.0N 97.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 26.0N 102.5W...INLAND OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 75.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z
FORECASTER STEWART
$$
WTNT25 KNHC 160833
TCMAT5
HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005
0900Z SAT JUL 16 2005
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO
PORT-AU-PRINCE.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 75.8W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT.......130NE 80SE 50SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 125SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 75.8W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 75.0W
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.3N 78.3W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 80SE 50SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.5N 81.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 80SE 50SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 18.9N 84.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 60SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 20.3N 87.6W...INLAND OVER YUCATAN
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 60SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 23.1N 92.9W...OVER SOUTHWESTERN GULFMEX
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT...100NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 70SW 130NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 25.0N 97.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 26.0N 102.5W...INLAND OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 75.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z
FORECASTER STEWART
$$
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Hurricane Emily Discussion Number 22
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on July 16, 2005
Air Force recon data near 06z indicated the central pressure had
fallen to 953 mb...and a 700 mb flight-level wind of 131 kt...or
118 kt equivalent surface winds...was observed in the northeast
quadrant during the outbound leg. Given that the 15 nmi diameter
eye has cleared out nicely since the recon flight...and that ODT
values over the past 1.5h have been t6.5/127 kt...the intensity for
the advisory is being conservatively increased to 120 kt. The
impressive outflow pattern also continues to improve.
The initial motion remains 285/16. Emily has been on a 285 degree
heading for the past 48 hours...and I see no indications that that
motion should significantly change any time soon. Upper-air data at
00z indicates 24-hour 700-400 mb heights across Florida have
increased by about 20 meters. This would suggest that...at least in
the short term...Emily should continue on its current motion and
pass more than 60 nmi south of Jamaica later today. Beyond that...
the models are in reasonable agreement on Emily making landfall
along the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula in about 48 hours. By 72
hours...a fairly vigorous shortwave trough currently approaching
the U.S. Pacific northwest is forecast to dig east-southeastward
into the central U.S. And weaken the subtropical ridge across the
northern Gulf of Mexico. This may allow Emily to briefly move more
northwestward...before turning back toward the west as the
shortwave trough moves quickly away from the area and allows the
ridge to build strongly westward. Location of a second landfall is
diffcult to predict at 96 hours...but the most likely area appears
to be from southern Texas to northeastern Mexico.
The eye is embedded in the center of a nice round CDO...and with
warmer water ahead of the cyclone and very favorable outflow...the
only inhibiting intensity factors should be eyewall replacement
cycles and land interaction. Emily is expected to lose about 30 kt
as it passes over the Yucatan...but it could regain category 3
strength due to 29-30c SSTs over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico
and a very favorable outflow pattern.
Forecaster Stewart
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 16/0900z 15.6n 75.8w 120 kt
12hr VT 16/1800z 16.3n 78.3w 125 kt
24hr VT 17/0600z 17.5n 81.5w 120 kt
36hr VT 17/1800z 18.9n 84.7w 120 kt
48hr VT 18/0600z 20.3n 87.6w 115 kt...inland over Yucatan
72hr VT 19/0600z 23.1n 92.9w 90 kt...over southwest gulfmex
96hr VT 20/0600z 25.0n 97.5w 100 kt
120hr VT 21/0600z 26.0n 102.5w 35 kt...inland over nrn Mexico
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on July 16, 2005
Air Force recon data near 06z indicated the central pressure had
fallen to 953 mb...and a 700 mb flight-level wind of 131 kt...or
118 kt equivalent surface winds...was observed in the northeast
quadrant during the outbound leg. Given that the 15 nmi diameter
eye has cleared out nicely since the recon flight...and that ODT
values over the past 1.5h have been t6.5/127 kt...the intensity for
the advisory is being conservatively increased to 120 kt. The
impressive outflow pattern also continues to improve.
The initial motion remains 285/16. Emily has been on a 285 degree
heading for the past 48 hours...and I see no indications that that
motion should significantly change any time soon. Upper-air data at
00z indicates 24-hour 700-400 mb heights across Florida have
increased by about 20 meters. This would suggest that...at least in
the short term...Emily should continue on its current motion and
pass more than 60 nmi south of Jamaica later today. Beyond that...
the models are in reasonable agreement on Emily making landfall
along the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula in about 48 hours. By 72
hours...a fairly vigorous shortwave trough currently approaching
the U.S. Pacific northwest is forecast to dig east-southeastward
into the central U.S. And weaken the subtropical ridge across the
northern Gulf of Mexico. This may allow Emily to briefly move more
northwestward...before turning back toward the west as the
shortwave trough moves quickly away from the area and allows the
ridge to build strongly westward. Location of a second landfall is
diffcult to predict at 96 hours...but the most likely area appears
to be from southern Texas to northeastern Mexico.
The eye is embedded in the center of a nice round CDO...and with
warmer water ahead of the cyclone and very favorable outflow...the
only inhibiting intensity factors should be eyewall replacement
cycles and land interaction. Emily is expected to lose about 30 kt
as it passes over the Yucatan...but it could regain category 3
strength due to 29-30c SSTs over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico
and a very favorable outflow pattern.
Forecaster Stewart
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 16/0900z 15.6n 75.8w 120 kt
12hr VT 16/1800z 16.3n 78.3w 125 kt
24hr VT 17/0600z 17.5n 81.5w 120 kt
36hr VT 17/1800z 18.9n 84.7w 120 kt
48hr VT 18/0600z 20.3n 87.6w 115 kt...inland over Yucatan
72hr VT 19/0600z 23.1n 92.9w 90 kt...over southwest gulfmex
96hr VT 20/0600z 25.0n 97.5w 100 kt
120hr VT 21/0600z 26.0n 102.5w 35 kt...inland over nrn Mexico
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cycloneye
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- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
H Emily Advisories
New Thread for advisories starting with the 8 AM one.
Last edited by cycloneye on Sat Jul 16, 2005 3:19 pm, edited 6 times in total.
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145303
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE EMILY BEGINNING TO PASS SOUTH OF JAMAICA ...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO
PORT-AU-PRINCE.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES...
230 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 395
MILES... 635 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.
EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES EMILY IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS NOW EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 150 MILES...240 KM. FOR JAMAICA...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY
OCCUR IN GUSTS LATER TODAY ALONG THE COASTS...WITH POSSIBLE
SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY
ABOVE 3000 FEET.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 947 MB...27.96 INCHES.
EMILY MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER
JAMAICA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...15.9 N... 76.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 947 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 AM EDT.
FORECASTER BEVEN
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE EMILY BEGINNING TO PASS SOUTH OF JAMAICA ...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO
PORT-AU-PRINCE.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES...
230 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 395
MILES... 635 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.
EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES EMILY IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS NOW EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 150 MILES...240 KM. FOR JAMAICA...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY
OCCUR IN GUSTS LATER TODAY ALONG THE COASTS...WITH POSSIBLE
SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY
ABOVE 3000 FEET.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 947 MB...27.96 INCHES.
EMILY MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER
JAMAICA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...15.9 N... 76.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 947 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 AM EDT.
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
182
WTNT65 KNHC 161212
TCUAT5
HURRICANE EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
815 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF EMILY HAS FALLEN TO 944 MB AND THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 145 MPH.
WTNT65 KNHC 161212
TCUAT5
HURRICANE EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
815 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF EMILY HAS FALLEN TO 944 MB AND THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 145 MPH.
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But what I really find interesting is the following:
From the 5AM discussion:
AIR FORCE RECON DATA NEAR 06Z INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD
FALLEN TO 953 MB...AND A 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 131 KT...OR
118 KT EQUIVALENT SURFACE WINDS...WAS OBSERVED IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT DURING THE OUTBOUND LEG. GIVEN THAT THE 15 NMI DIAMETER
EYE HAS CLEARED OUT NICELY SINCE THE RECON FLIGHT...AND THAT ODT
VALUES OVER THE PAST 1.5H HAVE BEEN T6.5/127 KT...THE INTENSITY FOR
THE ADVISORY IS BEING CONSERVATIVELY INCREASED TO 120 KT. THE
IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN ALSO CONTINUES TO IMPROVE.
5 AM advisory sited 953mb and 131 kt flight level winds is ok for 140mph winds, but...
They find 148 knot winds (170 mph) at flight level (944mb) and they only increase it by 5 mph?
From the 5AM discussion:
AIR FORCE RECON DATA NEAR 06Z INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD
FALLEN TO 953 MB...AND A 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 131 KT...OR
118 KT EQUIVALENT SURFACE WINDS...WAS OBSERVED IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT DURING THE OUTBOUND LEG. GIVEN THAT THE 15 NMI DIAMETER
EYE HAS CLEARED OUT NICELY SINCE THE RECON FLIGHT...AND THAT ODT
VALUES OVER THE PAST 1.5H HAVE BEEN T6.5/127 KT...THE INTENSITY FOR
THE ADVISORY IS BEING CONSERVATIVELY INCREASED TO 120 KT. THE
IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN ALSO CONTINUES TO IMPROVE.
5 AM advisory sited 953mb and 131 kt flight level winds is ok for 140mph winds, but...
They find 148 knot winds (170 mph) at flight level (944mb) and they only increase it by 5 mph?
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wxwatcher91
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wxwatcher91
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wxwatcher91
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- Location: Keene, NH
- Contact:
815
WTNT35 KNHC 161430
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR EMILY MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...RAINBANDS SPREADING OVER JAMAICA...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
CHETUMAL TO CABO CATOCHE INCLUDING THE ISLAS MUJERES.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO
PORT-AU-PRINCE. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER
TODAY.
AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE
BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.3 WEST OR ABOUT 130
MILES... 205 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT
335 MILES... 540 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.
EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF EMILY SOUTH OF
JAMAICA TODAY AND NEAR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND TONIGHT.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH
GUSTS. THIS MAKES EMILY A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 150 MILES...240 KM. FOR JAMAICA...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY
OCCUR IN GUSTS IN RAINBANDS ALONG THE COASTS...WITH POSSIBLE
SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY
ABOVE 3000 FEET.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 943 MB...27.85 INCHES.
EMILY MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER
JAMAICA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...WITH SOME 1 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES. RAINS WILL BE DIMINISHING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
HISPANIOLA TODAY.
REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...16.2 N... 77.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 943 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.
FORECASTER BEVEN
$$
WTNT35 KNHC 161430
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR EMILY MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...RAINBANDS SPREADING OVER JAMAICA...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
CHETUMAL TO CABO CATOCHE INCLUDING THE ISLAS MUJERES.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO
PORT-AU-PRINCE. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER
TODAY.
AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE
BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.3 WEST OR ABOUT 130
MILES... 205 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT
335 MILES... 540 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.
EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF EMILY SOUTH OF
JAMAICA TODAY AND NEAR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND TONIGHT.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH
GUSTS. THIS MAKES EMILY A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 150 MILES...240 KM. FOR JAMAICA...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY
OCCUR IN GUSTS IN RAINBANDS ALONG THE COASTS...WITH POSSIBLE
SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY
ABOVE 3000 FEET.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 943 MB...27.85 INCHES.
EMILY MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER
JAMAICA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...WITH SOME 1 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES. RAINS WILL BE DIMINISHING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
HISPANIOLA TODAY.
REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...16.2 N... 77.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 943 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.
FORECASTER BEVEN
$$
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