06Z limited area models

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clfenwi
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06Z limited area models

#1 Postby clfenwi » Sat Jul 16, 2005 1:33 am

494
WHXX01 KWBC 160621
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE EMILY (AL052005) ON 20050716 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050716 0600 050716 1800 050717 0600 050717 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.3N 75.0W 16.3N 78.1W 17.4N 81.0W 18.5N 83.9W
BAMM 15.3N 75.0W 16.2N 78.5W 16.9N 81.9W 17.8N 85.0W
A98E 15.3N 75.0W 16.2N 78.1W 17.0N 81.1W 17.8N 84.0W
LBAR 15.3N 75.0W 16.2N 78.2W 17.4N 81.5W 18.8N 85.0W
SHIP 115KTS 117KTS 112KTS 107KTS
DSHP 115KTS 117KTS 112KTS 107KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050718 0600 050719 0600 050720 0600 050721 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.8N 86.4W 22.6N 91.3W 24.2N 96.3W 25.7N 102.5W
BAMM 18.7N 87.6W 20.7N 91.8W 22.9N 95.7W 25.4N 101.9W
A98E 18.7N 86.8W 21.1N 92.1W 23.2N 96.8W 25.3N 101.3W
LBAR 20.0N 88.3W 23.7N 93.8W 24.6N 97.4W .0N .0W
SHIP 104KTS 100KTS 98KTS 91KTS
DSHP 82KTS 66KTS 64KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.3N LONCUR = 75.0W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 14.5N LONM12 = 71.8W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 13.7N LONM24 = 68.4W
WNDCUR = 115KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 90KT
CENPRS = 953MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 130NM RD34SE = 80NM RD34SW = 50NM RD34NW = 100NM
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clfenwi
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#2 Postby clfenwi » Sat Jul 16, 2005 1:44 am

Image

looks like a tighter cluster at second landfall than previous run...consensus of them shifted slightly north, I think...
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Derek Ortt

#3 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Jul 16, 2005 1:47 am

of those, I'd only trust the BAMD since this is a major hurricane

this is looking quite bad for the Matamoros/Bronwsville area the way things are starting to take shape
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mobilebay
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#4 Postby mobilebay » Sat Jul 16, 2005 1:53 am

Derek Ortt wrote:of those, I'd only trust the BAMD since this is a major hurricane

this is looking quite bad for the Matamoros/Bronwsville area the way things are starting to take shape

For Brownsville I hope the GFDL don't pan out. :eek:
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Javlin
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#5 Postby Javlin » Sat Jul 16, 2005 5:48 am

Derek I thought that the BAM models were used basically to incorporate data over the CONUS.The BAM models were not truly tropical models made for this low of lats.Anyone clarify that for me.
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Steve
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#6 Postby Steve » Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:50 am

I caught the 6z GFS and it shows landfall almost at the SW edge of the Bay of Campeche. That's one of the furthest southerly runs I've seen yet. I don't put much stock in the 06z's, but that's what the solution was.

Steve
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