Emily--Stronger!!

[gk1]

Looking at the lastest pics, Emily seems the have become much better organized. Winds may be near 125 mph at this time.

[hicksta]

Very true, she is looking like on mean gal!

[Hurricane Cheese]

Yes, she's turned into a bad...bad girl tonight!!

[HURAKAN]

BAD GIRLS ALWAYS LOOK GOOD!

Evil
Menace
Intense
Loca
Yeah!

[Swimdude]

135 mph winds actually.

[Hurricane Cheese]

BAD GIRLS ALWAYS LOOK GOOD!

Evil
Menace
Intense
Loca
Yeah!

LOL..ain't that the truth!

[iceangel]

ZCZC MIATCUAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
315 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATES HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTENDS
FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...

SHORTLY BEFORE 300 AM EDT...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE OF 953 MB AND A
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 131 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT ON THE
OUTBOUND LEG. THIS WIND SPEED IS ROUGHLY EQUAL TO A SURFACE WIND OF
118 KT...OR 136 MPH...WHICH MAKES EMILY A SOLID CATEGORY 4
HURRICANE.

EQUALLY IMPORTANT IS THAT JUST 90 NMI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 88-92 KT...OR APPROXIMATELY 79-83 KT/90-95
MPH...WERE INDICATED IN THE LARGE OUTER RAIN BAND THAT HAS FORMED
DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. IF THE RAIN BAND PERSISTS...THEN
HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS...WITH POSSIBLY SUSTAINED
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MAY OCCUR LATER TODAY
AS EMILY PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA.

FORECASTER STEWART

$$
NNNN

[weatherSnoop]

This loop, seems like she just wants to be sure and touch as many Islands as she can!

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ATL/anim8wv.html

[mobilebay]

BAD GIRLS ALWAYS LOOK GOOD!

Evil
Menace
Intense
Loca
Yeah!

Yes they do!

[Pebbles]

ZCZC MIATCUAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
315 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATES HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTENDS
FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...

SHORTLY BEFORE 300 AM EDT...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE OF 953 MB AND A
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 131 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT ON THE
OUTBOUND LEG. THIS WIND SPEED IS ROUGHLY EQUAL TO A SURFACE WIND OF
118 KT...OR 136 MPH...WHICH MAKES EMILY A SOLID CATEGORY 4
HURRICANE.

EQUALLY IMPORTANT IS THAT JUST 90 NMI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 88-92 KT...OR APPROXIMATELY 79-83 KT/90-95
MPH...WERE INDICATED IN THE LARGE OUTER RAIN BAND THAT HAS FORMED
DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. IF THE RAIN BAND PERSISTS...THEN
HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS...WITH POSSIBLY SUSTAINED
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MAY OCCUR LATER TODAY
AS EMILY PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA.

FORECASTER STEWART

$$
NNNN

Think Stewart is concerned cause that eyewall replacement seems to have taken nothin' outta her... and probably will just get worse from here

[Hurricane Cheese]

Ohhhhh, baby! If Emily was at a bar, I think I'd buy her a drink!

[James]

Wow, 120kts.

[Shoshana]

Latest advisory is out

Hurricane Emily Advisory Number 22

Statement as of 5:00 am AST on July 16, 2005

At 5 am AST...0900z...the center of Hurricane Emily was located near
latitude 15.6 north... longitude 75.8 west or about 180 miles...
285 km... south-southeast of Kingston Jamaica and about 440
miles... 705 km...southeast of Grand Cayman.


Emily is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph...30 km/hr...
and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24
hours.


Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph...220 km/hr...with higher
gusts. This makes Emily is a category four hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Some fluctuations in strength are
possible during the next 24 hours.


Hurricane force winds now extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 150 miles...240 km. For Jamaica...hurricane force winds may
occur in gusts later today along the coasts...with possible
sustained hurricane force winds at higher elevations...especially
above 3000 feet.


The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb...28.05 inches.

[iceangel]

Latest advisory is out

5:00 am AST on July 16, 2005

PROBABILITIES
000
WTNT75 KNHC 160834
SPFAT5
HURRICANE EMILY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST SAT JUL 16 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.8 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST TUE JUL 19 2005

Code: Select all

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

17.5N  81.5W      48  1  X  X 49   MMVR 192N 961W     X  X  X  2  2
18.9N  84.7W       1 34  1  X 36   MMFR 185N 926W     X  X  1  7  8
20.3N  87.6W       X  6 22  1 29   MMMD 210N 897W     X  X 18  7 25
MKJP 179N 768W    22  X  X  X 22   NEW IBERIA LA      X  X  X  2  2
MKJS 185N 779W    21  X  X  X 21   PORT ARTHUR TX     X  X  X  3  3
MWCG 193N 814W    25 10  X  X 35   GALVESTON TX       X  X  X  5  5
MUSN 216N 826W     X 11  3  X 14   FREEPORT TX        X  X  X  5  5
MUHA 230N 824W     X  2  1  1  4   PORT O CONNOR TX   X  X  X  6  6
MUAN 219N 850W     X 10 12  X 22   CORPUSCHRISTI TX   X  X  X  5  5
MMCZ 205N 869W     X 11 19  X 30   BROWNSVILLE TX     X  X  X  8  8
MZBZ 175N 883W     X  2 10  2 14   GULF 28N 89W       X  X  X  4  4
MGPB 157N 886W     X  X  1  2  3   GULF 28N 91W       X  X  X  7  7
MHNJ 165N 859W     X 10  3  X 13   GULF 28N 93W       X  X  X  9  9
MMSO 238N 982W     X  X  X  5  5   GULF 28N 95W       X  X  X  9  9
MMTM 222N 979W     X  X  X  4  4   GULF 27N 96W       X  X  X 10 10
MMTX 210N 974W     X  X  X  3  3   GULF 25N 96W       X  X  X 13 13

COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2AM SUN TO 2PM SUN
C FROM 2PM SUN TO 2AM MON
D FROM 2AM MON TO 2AM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER STEWART


$$

[vespersparrow]

This loop, seems like she just wants to be sure and touch as many Islands as she can!

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ATL/anim8wv.html

Looks sorta like God rolled a bowling ball and the islands are the pins...

[wxwatcher91]

wow in the 5am advisory "hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles" whoa 70 miles out is up from 25 earlier!