11pm advisory predictions

[HouTXmetro]

Remember storms stair step. They don't move in straight lines.

[senorpepr]

Well, recon just found 128kt flight level winds. That makes 115kt at the surface...

Where'd you find that report? I don't see it in the list of reports that I get in my e-mail. Wouldn't be surprised if they found such winds, though.

That was a MINOBS report. Check SXXX50 KNHC bulletins.

[jkt21787]

Well, recon just found 128kt flight level winds. That makes 115kt at the surface...

So that 147 mph wind posted on the recon thread was a 700 mb measurement?

yes

Thank you. Man has she come back with a vengance tonight!

[Brent]

115 kt(based on the latest report), track will be a little south of the previous one, across Yucatan, into Northern Mexico as a Cat 3.

[Rainband]

115 kt(based on the latest report), track will be a little south of the previous one, across Yucatan, into Northern Mexico as a Cat 3.

I agree on track but Cat 2

[wxman57]

Still can't find that observation of 128 kts. Just got a new vortex, though. It says max FL winds found so far only 113 kts.

URNT12 KNHC 160240
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 16/02:20:40Z
B. 15 deg 01 min N
074 deg 02 min W
C. 700 mb 2708 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 277 deg 077 kt
G. 218 deg 007 nm
H. 954 mb
I. 12 C/ 3060 m
J. 17 C/ 3053 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. OPEN S-SE
M. C10
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF308 0605A EMILY OB 17
MAX FL WIND 113 KT NW QUAD 01:01:00 Z
MAX FL TEMP 23 C 205 / 5 NM FROM FL CNTR

[senorpepr]

Well, VDM has 113kt in the NW quad; 954mb.

I'd expect 130mph 954mb on the advisory

[wxman57]

Well, recon just found 128kt flight level winds. That makes 115kt at the surface...

Where'd you find that report? I don't see it in the list of reports that I get in my e-mail. Wouldn't be surprised if they found such winds, though.

That was a MINOBS report. Check SXXX50 KNHC bulletins.

Roger. Wouldn't they report that in the vortex messages, though?

[senorpepr]

Still can't find that observation of 128 kts. Just got a new vortex, though. It says max FL winds found so far only 113 kts.

URNT12 KNHC 160240
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 16/02:20:40Z
B. 15 deg 01 min N
074 deg 02 min W
C. 700 mb 2708 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 277 deg 077 kt
G. 218 deg 007 nm
H. 954 mb
I. 12 C/ 3060 m
J. 17 C/ 3053 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. OPEN S-SE
M. C10
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF308 0605A EMILY OB 17
MAX FL WIND 113 KT NW QUAD 01:01:00 Z
MAX FL TEMP 23 C 205 / 5 NM FROM FL CNTR

Here is that observation: (I don't understand that VDM. They didn't go through the NW quad on this trip.

SXXX50 KNHC 160232
AF308 0605A EMILY HDOB 33 KNHC
0222. 1507N 07400W 03051 5255 135 071 140 116 081 02848 0000000000
0223 1509N 07359W 03068 5204 131 107 108 108 113 02915 0000000000
0223. 1510N 07358W 03042 5158 129 125 116 116 128 02936 0000000000
0224 1510N 07357W 03043 5142 137 124 110 110 127 02953 0000000000
0224. 1510N 07356W 03046 5115 138 123 112 112 123 02983 0000000000
0225 1511N 07355W 03044 5082 136 118 100 100 120 03014 0000000000
0225. 1512N 07354W 03045 5057 131 113 092 092 116 03040 0000000000
0226 1512N 07353W 03052 5030 133 106 104 104 109 03075 0000000100
0226. 1514N 07352W 03044 5006 130 100 094 094 102 03090 0000000100
0227 1515N 07351W 03052 0010 129 096 084 084 097 03114 0000000000
0227. 1516N 07350W 03051 0021 128 092 082 082 094 03125 0000000000
0228 1517N 07349W 03043 0031 128 090 076 076 091 03128 0000000000
0228. 1518N 07348W 03051 0042 131 087 080 080 087 03146 0000000000
0229 1519N 07346W 03047 0051 132 083 094 092 084 03150 0000000000
0229. 1520N 07345W 03047 0060 131 081 094 090 082 03159 0000000000
0230 1521N 07344W 03051 0069 131 083 086 086 084 03172 0000000100
0230. 1522N 07343W 03045 0072 134 077 076 076 078 03170 0000000000
0231 1523N 07342W 03052 0078 130 075 074 074 076 03183 0000000000
0231. 1524N 07341W 03045 0084 132 070 094 094 072 03181 0000000000
0232 1525N 07339W 03052 0090 130 070 068 068 075 03195 0000000000

NNNN

[senorpepr]

Also, the MINOBS has the 128kt at 02:23:30Z. The VDM Max Wind was at 01:01Z

[Brent]

115 kt(based on the latest report), track will be a little south of the previous one, across Yucatan, into Northern Mexico as a Cat 3.

I agree on track but Cat 2

That's what I'm iffy on. Depends on where it crosses, speed, the intensity it hits with(on the East Coast). It'll either be a strong 2 or Weak 3 IMO unless she gets quite a bit stronger or misses the Yucatan.

[amawea]

I agree with Rainband. Northern Mexico as a cat 2.
amawea

[Rainband]

115 kt(based on the latest report), track will be a little south of the previous one, across Yucatan, into Northern Mexico as a Cat 3.

I agree on track but Cat 2

That's what I'm iffy on. Depends on where it crosses, speed, the intensity it hits with(on the East Coast). It'll either be a strong 2 or Weak 3 IMO unless she gets quite a bit stronger or misses the Yucatan.

depends on the ULL too.

[deltadog03]

115 kt(based on the latest report), track will be a little south of the previous one, across Yucatan, into Northern Mexico as a Cat 3.

I agree on track but Cat 2

That's what I'm iffy on. Depends on where it crosses, speed, the intensity it hits with(on the East Coast). It'll either be a strong 2 or Weak 3 IMO unless she gets quite a bit stronger or misses the Yucatan.

depends on the ULL too.

you talking about the one over TX??

[wxman57]

Also, the MINOBS has the 128kt at 02:23:30Z. The VDM Max Wind was at 01:01Z

Yeah, I see. The VDM was 2:20Z and the MINOBS a little later.

[senorpepr]

Official: 115kt 954mb

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... arine.html

[wxman57]

And farther south. Inland near 25N now, about 60nm south of BRO.

[Brent]

Anyone else having trouble getting the tracking map from weather underground???

Been giving me fits all evening.

[cycloneye]

Anyone else having trouble getting the tracking map from weather underground???

Been giving me fits all evening.

I posted it at advisorie thread.