11pm advisory predictions

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
wxwatcher91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1606
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 2:43 pm
Location: Keene, NH
Contact:
Contact wxwatcher91

11pm advisory predictions

#1 Postby wxwatcher91 » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:08 pm

how fast do you think Emily's winds will be blowing by the 11pm advisory?
you can also post pressure predictions as well.

my prediction for the 11pm advisory is 125mph and 950mb

open for comments
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
hicksta
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1108
Age: 35
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:16 am
Location: Kemah Texas/ Baton Rogue LA

#2 Postby hicksta » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:11 pm

Around there.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:
Contact senorpepr

#3 Postby senorpepr » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:12 pm

I'd guess 120mph 954mb. That may be too strong... we shall see.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

#4 Postby deltadog03 » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:12 pm

i would say 120mph....952mb...WNW@ 14....i think she has slowed a bit...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
abajan
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4305
Age: 61
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 5:10 am
Location: Barbados

#5 Postby abajan » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:12 pm

Hard to tell. Perhaps 130 mph.
(Emily is one tricky hurricane!)
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
AussieMark
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5858
Joined: Tue Sep 02, 2003 6:36 pm
Location: near Sydney, Australia

#6 Postby AussieMark » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:21 pm

I say 115-120

and pressure around 954-955
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
hicksta
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1108
Age: 35
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:16 am
Location: Kemah Texas/ Baton Rogue LA

#7 Postby hicksta » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:23 pm

deltadog03 wrote:i would say 120mph....952mb...WNW@ 14....i think she has slowed a bit...


Correct me if im wrong, but if emily is slowing wouldnt that suggest a turn soon. Agian, correct me if im incorrect
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
beachbum_al
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2163
Age: 55
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2005 9:23 pm
Location: South Alabama Coast
Contact:
Contact beachbum_al

#8 Postby beachbum_al » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:25 pm

My guess she will 125 mph with pressure around 950. Moving to the WNW at 15mph.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Nimbus
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5444
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:54 am

#9 Postby Nimbus » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:26 pm

The plots on the sat loop show a recurve around Jamaica.
That would take the storm over the western end of Cuba?
Where do you think they will turn the storm back west?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

#10 Postby deltadog03 » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:30 pm

hicksta wrote:
deltadog03 wrote:i would say 120mph....952mb...WNW@ 14....i think she has slowed a bit...


Correct me if im wrong, but if emily is slowing wouldnt that suggest a turn soon. Agian, correct me if im incorrect


not sure man...
0 likes   
Top
gkrangers

#11 Postby gkrangers » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:32 pm

hicksta wrote:
deltadog03 wrote:i would say 120mph....952mb...WNW@ 14....i think she has slowed a bit...


Correct me if im wrong, but if emily is slowing wouldnt that suggest a turn soon. Agian, correct me if im incorrect
Not necessarily. Sometimes they slow because of shifting steering currents causing a turn. And sometimes steering currents weaken and a slower forward speed results.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:
Contact senorpepr

#12 Postby senorpepr » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:35 pm

Well, recon just found 128kt flight level winds. That makes 115kt at the surface...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
hicksta
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1108
Age: 35
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:16 am
Location: Kemah Texas/ Baton Rogue LA

#13 Postby hicksta » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:36 pm

Seems she may once agian take a more west track.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 23080
Age: 68
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

#14 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:36 pm

I'm watching a high-res IR loop zoomed in with 1-deg lat/lon lines. For the past 90 minutes, I see a due west movement, from 15N/73.6W to 15N/74.1W.
Now I don't think this means it's going west from here on out. This is probably just normal wobbling going on.

Latest vortex at 0056Z says 109 kts max FL (10,000 ft). That converts to about 98 kts at the surface. Of course, the recon plane could have communicated higher winds to the NHC without putting the data out to the public.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
hicksta
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1108
Age: 35
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:16 am
Location: Kemah Texas/ Baton Rogue LA

#15 Postby hicksta » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:37 pm

Beat you to it :wink:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 23080
Age: 68
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

#16 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:38 pm

senorpepr wrote:Well, recon just found 128kt flight level winds. That makes 115kt at the surface...


Where'd you find that report? I don't see it in the list of reports that I get in my e-mail. Wouldn't be surprised if they found such winds, though.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:
Contact senorpepr

#17 Postby senorpepr » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:39 pm

wxman57 wrote:I'm watching a high-res IR loop zoomed in with 1-deg lat/lon lines. For the past 90 minutes, I see a due west movement, from 15N/73.6W to 15N/74.1W.
Now I don't think this means it's going west from here on out. This is probably just normal wobbling going on.

Latest vortex at 0056Z says 109 kts max FL (10,000 ft). That converts to about 98 kts at the surface. Of course, the recon plane could have communicated higher winds to the NHC without putting the data out to the public.


0223. 1510N 07358W 03042 5158 129 125 116 116 128 02936 0000000000

128kt max at FL -- 115kt at the surface. VDM is being QCed
0 likes   
Top
jkt21787
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2061
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:27 pm
Location: Memphis, TN

#18 Postby jkt21787 » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:39 pm

senorpepr wrote:Well, recon just found 128kt flight level winds. That makes 115kt at the surface...

So that 147 mph wind posted on the recon thread was a 700 mb measurement?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
hicksta
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1108
Age: 35
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:16 am
Location: Kemah Texas/ Baton Rogue LA

#19 Postby hicksta » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:40 pm

Wx,
Do you expect it to return to a WNW track soon.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:
Contact senorpepr

#20 Postby senorpepr » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:40 pm

jkt21787 wrote:
senorpepr wrote:Well, recon just found 128kt flight level winds. That makes 115kt at the surface...

So that 147 mph wind posted on the recon thread was a 700 mb measurement?
yes
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Hurricane2000 and 55 guests