11pm advisory predictions

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wxwatcher91
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11pm advisory predictions

#1 Postby wxwatcher91 » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:08 pm

how fast do you think Emily's winds will be blowing by the 11pm advisory?
you can also post pressure predictions as well.

my prediction for the 11pm advisory is 125mph and 950mb

open for comments
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#2 Postby hicksta » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:11 pm

Around there.
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#3 Postby senorpepr » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:12 pm

I'd guess 120mph 954mb. That may be too strong... we shall see.
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#4 Postby deltadog03 » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:12 pm

i would say 120mph....952mb...WNW@ 14....i think she has slowed a bit...
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#5 Postby abajan » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:12 pm

Hard to tell. Perhaps 130 mph.
(Emily is one tricky hurricane!)
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#6 Postby AussieMark » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:21 pm

I say 115-120

and pressure around 954-955
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#7 Postby hicksta » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:23 pm

deltadog03 wrote:i would say 120mph....952mb...WNW@ 14....i think she has slowed a bit...


Correct me if im wrong, but if emily is slowing wouldnt that suggest a turn soon. Agian, correct me if im incorrect
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#8 Postby beachbum_al » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:25 pm

My guess she will 125 mph with pressure around 950. Moving to the WNW at 15mph.
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#9 Postby Nimbus » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:26 pm

The plots on the sat loop show a recurve around Jamaica.
That would take the storm over the western end of Cuba?
Where do you think they will turn the storm back west?
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#10 Postby deltadog03 » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:30 pm

hicksta wrote:
deltadog03 wrote:i would say 120mph....952mb...WNW@ 14....i think she has slowed a bit...


Correct me if im wrong, but if emily is slowing wouldnt that suggest a turn soon. Agian, correct me if im incorrect


not sure man...
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#11 Postby gkrangers » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:32 pm

hicksta wrote:
deltadog03 wrote:i would say 120mph....952mb...WNW@ 14....i think she has slowed a bit...


Correct me if im wrong, but if emily is slowing wouldnt that suggest a turn soon. Agian, correct me if im incorrect
Not necessarily. Sometimes they slow because of shifting steering currents causing a turn. And sometimes steering currents weaken and a slower forward speed results.
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#12 Postby senorpepr » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:35 pm

Well, recon just found 128kt flight level winds. That makes 115kt at the surface...
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#13 Postby hicksta » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:36 pm

Seems she may once agian take a more west track.
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#14 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:36 pm

I'm watching a high-res IR loop zoomed in with 1-deg lat/lon lines. For the past 90 minutes, I see a due west movement, from 15N/73.6W to 15N/74.1W.
Now I don't think this means it's going west from here on out. This is probably just normal wobbling going on.

Latest vortex at 0056Z says 109 kts max FL (10,000 ft). That converts to about 98 kts at the surface. Of course, the recon plane could have communicated higher winds to the NHC without putting the data out to the public.
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#15 Postby hicksta » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:37 pm

Beat you to it :wink:
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#16 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:38 pm

senorpepr wrote:Well, recon just found 128kt flight level winds. That makes 115kt at the surface...


Where'd you find that report? I don't see it in the list of reports that I get in my e-mail. Wouldn't be surprised if they found such winds, though.
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#17 Postby senorpepr » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:39 pm

wxman57 wrote:I'm watching a high-res IR loop zoomed in with 1-deg lat/lon lines. For the past 90 minutes, I see a due west movement, from 15N/73.6W to 15N/74.1W.
Now I don't think this means it's going west from here on out. This is probably just normal wobbling going on.

Latest vortex at 0056Z says 109 kts max FL (10,000 ft). That converts to about 98 kts at the surface. Of course, the recon plane could have communicated higher winds to the NHC without putting the data out to the public.


0223. 1510N 07358W 03042 5158 129 125 116 116 128 02936 0000000000

128kt max at FL -- 115kt at the surface. VDM is being QCed
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#18 Postby jkt21787 » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:39 pm

senorpepr wrote:Well, recon just found 128kt flight level winds. That makes 115kt at the surface...

So that 147 mph wind posted on the recon thread was a 700 mb measurement?
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#19 Postby hicksta » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:40 pm

Wx,
Do you expect it to return to a WNW track soon.
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#20 Postby senorpepr » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:40 pm

jkt21787 wrote:
senorpepr wrote:Well, recon just found 128kt flight level winds. That makes 115kt at the surface...

So that 147 mph wind posted on the recon thread was a 700 mb measurement?
yes
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