Emily is becoming better organized

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
Matt-hurricanewatcher

Emily is becoming better organized

#1 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Jul 15, 2005 3:44 pm

The outflow has expending outwards greatly over the last few hours. In a ring of red has reformed around the new eye that has just appeared on IR/Visible satellite. The system is done with its EWRC....Yes there was a outflow boundry but that may have helped push the unfavable enviroment away from the hurricane...Which at the same time you can see outflow moving outwards. As of this moment the outflow over the northwestern quad is not getting shear but enhanced.

So remember last night when it did not have any outflow. Plus it was going through a ERCW. Recon reported back a 20 nmi wide new eye...This is alot more impressive then ite was earlier this morning.


So if it where to slow down its current forward speed this thing could really start going. What happen when you get a system moving this fast is the system catches up with the ULLs. If it slows down watch it. With the warmest water off the whole Atlantic basin.


This system is becoming impressive again...


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148501
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#2 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 15, 2005 3:45 pm

But now is a cat 2.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#3 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Jul 15, 2005 3:49 pm

By the time recon gets back in. They will likely find that this is a cat3 again. Thats if current trends keep up...
0 likes   
Top
Anonymous

#4 Postby Anonymous » Fri Jul 15, 2005 3:50 pm

Yea, it's structure is getting better.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Thunder44
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5922
Age: 44
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 7:53 pm
Location: New York City

#5 Postby Thunder44 » Fri Jul 15, 2005 3:51 pm

Avila seemed to suggest in his discussion that this could be a Cat 1 hurricane. I hope they get a plane out there soon:

Initial intensity has been adjusted
downward to 90 knots and this is a generous estimate.
0 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38266
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#6 Postby Brent » Fri Jul 15, 2005 3:53 pm

Thunder44 wrote:Avila seemed to suggest in his discussion that this could be a Cat 1 hurricane. I hope they get a plane out there soon:

Initial intensity has been adjusted
downward to 90 knots and this is a generous estimate.


It will be in around 8pm EDT.
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#7 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Jul 15, 2005 3:58 pm

I expect that eye to clear out/tighten over the next 6 to 12 hours. With that red ring of deep convection forming around the eye...I think it will be a cat3 by 5am.
0 likes   
Top
Stormcenter
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6685
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
Location: Houston, TX

#8 Postby Stormcenter » Fri Jul 15, 2005 4:04 pm

Thunder44 wrote:Avila seemed to suggest in his discussion that this could be a Cat 1 hurricane. I hope they get a plane out there soon:

Initial intensity has been adjusted
downward to 90 knots and this is a generous estimate.


His 4pm discussion in my opinion was not one of his best.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
stormie_skies
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3318
Joined: Tue Aug 12, 2003 9:25 pm
Location: League City, TX

#9 Postby stormie_skies » Fri Jul 15, 2005 4:14 pm

How anyone can think that Miss Em's current sat presentaion compared to what she looked like at the time of the last advisory shows she is significantly weakening...

....I dunno. I'm not getting something here, I guess. :shrug:
0 likes   
Top
djtil
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 699
Joined: Fri Jul 08, 2005 10:09 am

#10 Postby djtil » Fri Jul 15, 2005 4:16 pm

are we seeding with oregano now?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
stormie_skies
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3318
Joined: Tue Aug 12, 2003 9:25 pm
Location: League City, TX

#11 Postby stormie_skies » Fri Jul 15, 2005 4:17 pm

huh...???
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
dhweather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6199
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:29 pm
Location: Heath, TX
Contact:
Contact dhweather

#12 Postby dhweather » Fri Jul 15, 2005 4:17 pm

Since we're not getting Satellite data right now, we get a surprise later.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
stormie_skies
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3318
Joined: Tue Aug 12, 2003 9:25 pm
Location: League City, TX

#13 Postby stormie_skies » Fri Jul 15, 2005 4:19 pm

I see that. I dont like surprises.... :x
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
curtinnc
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 79
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2005 4:32 pm
Location: Cornelius, NC
Contact:
Contact curtinnc

Let the Oreganoization begin...

#14 Postby curtinnc » Fri Jul 15, 2005 6:13 pm

After we get into some warmer water...
0 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38266
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#15 Postby Brent » Fri Jul 15, 2005 6:14 pm

Image

I'll be stunned if the pressure isn't down significantly...
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
User avatar
yoda
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7874
Joined: Tue Jan 13, 2004 3:51 pm
Location: Springfield VA (20 mins south of DC)
Contact:
Contact yoda

#16 Postby yoda » Fri Jul 15, 2005 6:16 pm

Surprise! :eek: :eek:
0 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38266
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#17 Postby Brent » Fri Jul 15, 2005 6:17 pm

Not only that... but she's much larger than she was last night. Remember how we were remarking how small the circulation was??? It's three times bigger now.
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
Indystorm
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 55
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 9:25 pm
Location: Kentland Indiana

#18 Postby Indystorm » Fri Jul 15, 2005 6:24 pm

I'm thinking that the TUTT or upper level low around the Bahamas and southwest may really be aiding outflow now from Emily in the upper levels. Look at how that cirrus shield has expanded northward in much better fashion than earlier today.
0 likes   
Top
Scorpion

#19 Postby Scorpion » Fri Jul 15, 2005 6:25 pm

Oh my god looks almost like Ivan did when it intitially reached Cat 5 status.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
stormie_skies
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3318
Joined: Tue Aug 12, 2003 9:25 pm
Location: League City, TX

#20 Postby stormie_skies » Fri Jul 15, 2005 6:27 pm

She's so pretty....and no one is around here to look at her..... :lol:

Does anyone know when we should be hearing from recon???
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: DESTRUCTION5 and 198 guests