N.O.at 4pm is now in the strike probability zone.

[Rainband]

I am back to the Mexico idea

[Stormcenter]

As Dennis made landfall at Pensacola, Port Arthur TEXAS had a 2% probability.

True but with Brownsivlle 3% makes no sense to have NO right behind them at 2% unless they are worried about something..

don't read more into it than is there. The explanations given are quite valid.

Yeah you're right I won't

[Steve]

>>But your average Joe Blow doesn't care how close the storm is coming only whether or not it IS coming to their home. So wouldn't it make a lot more sense if they listed the percentages based the probability of the storm center striking your area directly?

Well the Average Joe (most likely) has a concept of 3% equalling slim and none as well .

Steve

[dwg71]

>>But your average Joe Blow doesn't care how close the storm is coming only whether or not it IS coming to their home. So wouldn't it make a lot more sense if they listed the percentages based the probability of the storm center striking your area directly?

Well the Average Joe (most likely) has a concept of 3% equalling slim and none as well .

Steve

I dont know, we sell a lot of lottery tickets. The lottery = a tax on people who werent good at math..

[hicksta]

>>But your average Joe Blow doesn't care how close the storm is coming only whether or not it IS coming to their home. So wouldn't it make a lot more sense if they listed the percentages based the probability of the storm center striking your area directly?

Well the Average Joe (most likely) has a concept of 3% equalling slim and none as well .

Steve

Reminds me of Poker on tv. some guy had 1% needed the last 2 aces in the hand to come on the turn and river. and he got it and was estatic.

[Stormcenter]

>>But your average Joe Blow doesn't care how close the storm is coming only whether or not it IS coming to their home. So wouldn't it make a lot more sense if they listed the percentages based the probability of the storm center striking your area directly?

Well the Average Joe (most likely) has a concept of 3% equalling slim and none as well .

Steve

So is that how Brownsville should feel right now about their odds of Emily coming there way?
I think not.

[dwg71]

>>But your average Joe Blow doesn't care how close the storm is coming only whether or not it IS coming to their home. So wouldn't it make a lot more sense if they listed the percentages based the probability of the storm center striking your area directly?

Well the Average Joe (most likely) has a concept of 3% equalling slim and none as well .

Steve

So is that how Brownsville should feel right now about their odds of Emily coming there way?
I think not.

Pulling hair out.....

That's their odds it will be there in 72hours.. Cone for 3+ days, chart for next 72 hours...

[Stormcenter]

>>But your average Joe Blow doesn't care how close the storm is coming only whether or not it IS coming to their home. So wouldn't it make a lot more sense if they listed the percentages based the probability of the storm center striking your area directly?

Well the Average Joe (most likely) has a concept of 3% equalling slim and none as well .

Steve

So is that how Brownsville should feel right now about their odds of Emily coming there way?
I think not.

Pulling hair out.....

That's their odds it will be there in 72hours.. Cone for 3+ days, chart for next 72 hours...

But when their local TV weathercaster is showing these probabilities they don't see it that way.
Oh well I made my point. Thanks EVERYONE for the responses.

[Steve]

>>So is that how Brownsville should feel right now about their odds of Emily coming there way? I think not.

In the context in which it is presented, absolutely. Your argument is simply pushing the proverbial envelope. In a way, it's like assuming someone would think a grocery basket full of goodies was $1.00 becasue that's how much the generic scotch tape was.

Steve