I was very surprised to read this.
The difference between N.O. (2%) and Brownsville (3%)
is only 1%!!!!
That makes think there is still alot of uncertainity with
Emily's future track. I just don't think it will be as cut and dry as
some of you believe. IMO
N.O.at 4pm is now in the strike probability zone.
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Stormcenter
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Re: N.O.at 4pm is now in the strike probability zone.
Stormcenter wrote:I was very surprised to read this.
The difference between N.O. (2%) and Brownsville (3%)
is only 1%!!!!
That makes think there is still alot of uncertainity with
Emily's future track. I just don't think it will be as cut and dry as
some of you believe. IMO
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST MON JUL 18 2005
Odds are it won't make landfall ANYWHERE outside the Yucatan by then, that's too early.
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if this (nearly useless) system went past 72 hours the brownsville percentage would be >>>>> than the new orleans percentage.
all this is saying is that noone has a chance of getting the hurricane within 72 hours.....
all this is saying is that noone has a chance of getting the hurricane within 72 hours.....
Last edited by djtil on Fri Jul 15, 2005 4:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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beachbum_al
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it has to do with there location from the storm NO and Galveston are closer, than Brownsville.
Brownsville in 72 hours is not really pheasible becauese of speed in which it would have to travel... NO and Galv are low because the direction is not forecast, but time is less of an issue because it is closer...
Brownsville in 72 hours is not really pheasible becauese of speed in which it would have to travel... NO and Galv are low because the direction is not forecast, but time is less of an issue because it is closer...
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Stormcenter
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djtil wrote:if this (nearly useless) system went past 72 hours the brownsville percentage would be >>>>> than the new orleans percentage.
all this is saying is that noone has a chance of getting the hurricane within 72 hours.....
It still doesn't make sense to list N.O. if you know the possibility
of that happening is remote. Unless of course the possibility
is really there.
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The strike probs actually are far less significant than people think; and people seem to completely misunderstand them.
The %s are not individually set by an actual meteorologist sitting there saying "ooh, lets give this town this probabilty and that town that probability" etc.
It's basically automatically generated around the track line.
They're not some sort of insight into the secret inner thinkings of the NHC.
And where people REALLY get screwed up is that they don't understand the probabilities at all...they're only probabilities for the NEXT THREE DAYS, not an OVERALL probability of a given location having the storm pass near it.
Because of the orientation of the track line, and the restriction to a three day forecast, there's a 2% chance the storm manages to pass 64 miles south of New Orleans in the next three days.
Even though the forecast track passes OVER Brownsville, because that would take place in 4-5 days in the official forecast, the chances it gets to within 65 miles of Brownsville within THREE days is quite low...only 3%...the storm would have to RADICALLY accelerate to do that.
Thus, you'll routinely see locations well off to the side of the likely track often get the same or higher probabilities than locations directly under the 5 day forecast track position.
The %s are not individually set by an actual meteorologist sitting there saying "ooh, lets give this town this probabilty and that town that probability" etc.
It's basically automatically generated around the track line.
They're not some sort of insight into the secret inner thinkings of the NHC.
And where people REALLY get screwed up is that they don't understand the probabilities at all...they're only probabilities for the NEXT THREE DAYS, not an OVERALL probability of a given location having the storm pass near it.
Because of the orientation of the track line, and the restriction to a three day forecast, there's a 2% chance the storm manages to pass 64 miles south of New Orleans in the next three days.
Even though the forecast track passes OVER Brownsville, because that would take place in 4-5 days in the official forecast, the chances it gets to within 65 miles of Brownsville within THREE days is quite low...only 3%...the storm would have to RADICALLY accelerate to do that.
Thus, you'll routinely see locations well off to the side of the likely track often get the same or higher probabilities than locations directly under the 5 day forecast track position.
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It still doesn't make sense to list N.O. if you know the possibility
of that happening is remote. Unless of course the possibility
is really there
i agree, the whole strike probability thing is inaccurate and basically useless......there is not a 3% chance of emily passing within 65 miles of new orleans within 72 hours...so why use a statistical system that says such.
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