18:00z Model Guidance=Tight consensus Texas/Mexican Border

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cycloneye
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18:00z Model Guidance=Tight consensus Texas/Mexican Border

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 15, 2005 1:56 pm

Image

Clustered towards the Texas/Mexico border area.
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#2 Postby hicksta » Fri Jul 15, 2005 1:57 pm

I still think the models are having trouble with the 2 ULL and the Ridge i expect many more shifts
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#3 Postby Sanibel » Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:02 pm

Right now Emily is tracking on the NHCA left outlier...
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#4 Postby dwg71 » Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:05 pm

models have shifted right and left some, but consensous for 2 days now has been northern Mex - southern TX.

Dont expect anything drastic.
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#5 Postby deltadog03 » Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:07 pm

Sanibel wrote:Right now Emily is tracking on the NHCA left outlier...


agree sanibel...i think she will come closer to jamaica...but, i don't see that being the key to the landfall....its gonna be weather those SW's can errode enough of the ridge to push her north in the SW gulf...
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#6 Postby joseph01 » Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:08 pm

That's a lot of agreement for this far out.
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#7 Postby deltadog03 » Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:10 pm

joseph01 wrote:That's a lot of agreement for this far out.


yeah there is...but, they can all be aggreeing on the right or wrong thing...lol
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#8 Postby Brent » Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:16 pm

Models also initialized at 95 kt or 110 mph, strong Cat 2:

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE EMILY (AL052005) ON 20050715 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050715 1800 050716 0600 050716 1800 050717 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.5N 72.0W 15.6N 74.9W 16.7N 77.8W 17.8N 80.4W
BAMM 14.5N 72.0W 15.5N 75.3W 16.6N 78.4W 17.4N 81.1W
A98E 14.5N 72.0W 15.0N 75.6W 15.8N 78.8W 16.6N 81.8W
LBAR 14.5N 72.0W 15.6N 75.3W 16.9N 78.7W 18.1N 82.2W
SHIP 95KTS 90KTS 92KTS 93KTS
DSHP 95KTS 90KTS 92KTS 93KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050717 1800 050718 1800 050719 1800 050720 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.9N 82.9W 20.9N 87.4W 22.7N 91.1W 24.5N 94.7W
BAMM 18.4N 83.7W 20.5N 88.2W 22.8N 91.9W 25.6N 95.5W
A98E 17.4N 84.7W 19.5N 89.7W 21.5N 94.0W 24.3N 97.3W
LBAR 19.3N 85.5W 22.4N 91.2W 26.3N 94.4W 28.1N 97.9W
SHIP 92KTS 88KTS 88KTS 87KTS
DSHP 92KTS 78KTS 78KTS 40KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.5N LONCUR = 72.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 18KT
LATM12 = 13.7N LONM12 = 68.4W DIRM12 = 286DEG SPDM12 = 17KT
LATM24 = 13.0N LONM24 = 65.0W
WNDCUR = 95KT RMAXWD = 5NM WNDM12 = 115KT
CENPRS = 969MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 100NM
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#9 Postby deltadog03 » Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:17 pm

so, they intialized weak? significant??
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#10 Postby Brent » Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:19 pm

deltadog03 wrote:so, they intialized weak? significant??


I was just pointing out they initialized at 95 kt. I don't think it affects the track. :wink:
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#11 Postby deltadog03 » Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:20 pm

Brent wrote:
deltadog03 wrote:so, they intialized weak? significant??


I was just pointing out they initialized at 95 kt. I don't think it affects the track. :wink:


ok...u still having probs..with the other forum?
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#12 Postby Brent » Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:24 pm

deltadog03 wrote:
Brent wrote:
deltadog03 wrote:so, they intialized weak? significant??


I was just pointing out they initialized at 95 kt. I don't think it affects the track. :wink:


ok...u still having probs..with the other forum?


You have a PM.
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#13 Postby dhweather » Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:30 pm

Texas, Mexico - TEXACO! :D
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#14 Postby joseph01 » Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:33 pm

deltadog03 wrote:
joseph01 wrote:That's a lot of agreement for this far out.


yeah there is...but, they can all be aggreeing on the right or wrong thing...lol


Well...I suppose it could still hit New Orleans too, but unlikely at this point.
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