NHC and west GOM hurricanes

[corpusbreeze]

It seems to me , in my opinion, that the NHC have a hard time forecasting west moving canes that move to the western GOM. They have done a great job the last couple of years on their 5 day outlook, but most of those were recurving storms, which seems to be an easier for them to plot. I dont think I have never seen a good forecast for the west GOM. Anyways with that said I wouldn't just focus on deep south Texas being in the bulls eye for Emily, with the NHC shifts back and forth. Its still could go from Tampico to Galveston.

[hicksta]

id have to widen that from tampico-sela

[djtil]

thinking back it always seems like the yucatan storms always end up further south than forecast.....thats my guess this time also....landfall 200 mi south of brownsville.

[corpusbreeze]

thinking back it always seems like the yucatan storms always end up further south than forecast.....thats my guess this time also....landfall 200 mi south of brownsville.

It sure could, I have a feeling that Emily is going give them fits. They already sound frustrated on their discussions.

[dhweather]

I think the questions about the strength of the ridge, combined with two ULL's is driving them nuts.

Its driving me nuts.

[Cape Verde]

I have several days before I need to even begin becoming personally concerned, although if I lived in Brownsville, I'd buy some hurricane supplies this weekend.

[hicksta]

I think the questions about the strength of the ridge, combined with two ULL's is driving them nuts.

Its driving me nuts.

Agreed, we should see many more model shifts

[HouTXmetro]

Claudette went well north of the forecast in 2003. I might add it was suppose to hit Brownsville.

[Brent]

Claudette went well north of the forecast in 2003. It might add it was suppose yo hit Brownsville.

I remember that. Waiting on that turn made me pull my hair out.

[HouTXmetro]

Claudette went well north of the forecast in 2003. It might add it was suppose yo hit Brownsville.

I remember that. Waiting on that turn made me pull my hair out.

Yeah I distinclty remember Claudette was suppose to hit around Brownsville. However it went well north and made landfall north of Corpus in Matagorda Bay.

[Brent]

Claudette went well north of the forecast in 2003. It might add it was suppose yo hit Brownsville.

I remember that. Waiting on that turn made me pull my hair out.

Yeah I distinclty remember Claudette was suppose to hit around Brownsville. However it went well north and made landfall north of Corpus in Matagorda Bay.

Yep... it pointed at Brownsville for days.

[stormie_skies]

Claudette went well north of the forecast in 2003. It might add it was suppose yo hit Brownsville.

I remember that. Waiting on that turn made me pull my hair out.

Yeah I distinclty remember Claudette was suppose to hit around Brownsville. However it went well north and made landfall north of Corpus in Matagorda Bay.

Yep... it pointed at Brownsville for days.

Oh goodness yes, she was a nailbiter! I remember Dan Meador on the KHOU board swearing over and over that she was gonna turn, that she HAD to turn, while she just kept chuggin' along north....she was the storm that made me track down and join this board, actually.

Perhaps thats why I got a little nervous when I saw that the NHC track allowed for a more northerly component followed by a turn due west....if we ever had a Claudette scenario with a really strong storm....can you imagine????