12z Globals,UKMET,Canadian,GFS,Nogaps,ECMWF
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NOGAPS... south of previous track from 12 h on... unlike 00Z run last night keeps Emily's center south of Jamaica... Northern Yucatan landfall at 60 h...after that more similar to previous run...landfall maybe a touch south of where it was last indicated in N Mexico and sooner... 108 hours...
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 2005071512
NOTE: 120 h frame in the loop is not of this run, it is the 132 hour frame from the previous run...
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 2005071512
NOTE: 120 h frame in the loop is not of this run, it is the 132 hour frame from the previous run...
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Notes that may be of interest from HPC's model diagnostic discussion:
...HRCN EMILY..
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE TRENDING MORE SLY WITH THE TRACK OF
EMILY. THE NAM IS WEAKER AND FASTER THAN THE GFS CARRYING THE SYS
EWD AND IS MORE SLY WITH THE TRACK. THE UKMET SEEMS TO LIE
BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM...BOTH IN TRACK AND INTENSITY. THE CAN
GLOB IS FASTER AND WEAKER LIKE THE NAM BUT CONSIDERABLY FARTHER N.
THE NOGAPS IS THE DEEPEST SOLN...AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS.
THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GFS THROUGH 48 HOURS.
BY 72 HOURS...THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK IS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND
FARTHER S THAN THE 12Z GFS...MORE LIKE THE NOGAPS...AS THE SYS
PASSES THRU THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE GOMEX. SEE THE LATEST
NHC BULLETIN ON EMILY FOR DETAILS.
...TROFFING OVER THE SRN PLAINS...
THE UKMET AND CAN GLOB ARE WEAKER THAN THE NAM AND GFS WITH THE H5
TROFFING OVER THE SRN PLAINS BY FHR 24. THE NAM AND CAN GLOB HAVE
BOTH TRENDED SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH THE TROFFING HERE. THE 00Z
ECMWF SUPPORTS A WEAKER TROF. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY ONE
SOLN...BUT THE TRENDS AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO SUPPORT A
WEAKER SOLN HERE THAN THE GFS OR NAM. PERHAPS THE UKMET SOLN IS
BEST...ESP BY DAY 3 WHEN THE H5 TROF OVER THE N CNTRL STATES
PASSES N OF THIS TROFFING.
...HRCN EMILY..
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE TRENDING MORE SLY WITH THE TRACK OF
EMILY. THE NAM IS WEAKER AND FASTER THAN THE GFS CARRYING THE SYS
EWD AND IS MORE SLY WITH THE TRACK. THE UKMET SEEMS TO LIE
BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM...BOTH IN TRACK AND INTENSITY. THE CAN
GLOB IS FASTER AND WEAKER LIKE THE NAM BUT CONSIDERABLY FARTHER N.
THE NOGAPS IS THE DEEPEST SOLN...AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS.
THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GFS THROUGH 48 HOURS.
BY 72 HOURS...THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK IS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND
FARTHER S THAN THE 12Z GFS...MORE LIKE THE NOGAPS...AS THE SYS
PASSES THRU THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE GOMEX. SEE THE LATEST
NHC BULLETIN ON EMILY FOR DETAILS.
...TROFFING OVER THE SRN PLAINS...
THE UKMET AND CAN GLOB ARE WEAKER THAN THE NAM AND GFS WITH THE H5
TROFFING OVER THE SRN PLAINS BY FHR 24. THE NAM AND CAN GLOB HAVE
BOTH TRENDED SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH THE TROFFING HERE. THE 00Z
ECMWF SUPPORTS A WEAKER TROF. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY ONE
SOLN...BUT THE TRENDS AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO SUPPORT A
WEAKER SOLN HERE THAN THE GFS OR NAM. PERHAPS THE UKMET SOLN IS
BEST...ESP BY DAY 3 WHEN THE H5 TROF OVER THE N CNTRL STATES
PASSES N OF THIS TROFFING.
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All I have to say is "model schmodel" right now..
They are all calling for her to gain lattitude, and she is just not having anything to do with it..
They will begin shifting southward with each run, if Emily stays south. If it passes near 15N and 75W, i think you will see Yucatan hit alot further south than Cozumel..
They are all calling for her to gain lattitude, and she is just not having anything to do with it..
They will begin shifting southward with each run, if Emily stays south. If it passes near 15N and 75W, i think you will see Yucatan hit alot further south than Cozumel..
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European...landfall slightly further south than previous run...mid-northern Yucatan Peninsula before 72 h...second landfall...again further south than prev run...northern mexico at 120 h... forecast has not quite reverted back to the track that it offered for four days before shifting north last night, but is quite close...
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/
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dwg71 wrote:All I have to say is "model schmodel" right now..
They are all calling for her to gain lattitude, and she is just not having anything to do with it..
They will begin shifting southward with each run, if Emily stays south. If it passes near 15N and 75W, i think you will see Yucatan hit alot further south than Cozumel..
If you are right about that, then some of the best forecasts will have been the ones from NOGAPS and the ECMWF earlier this week... check out Tuesday's 12Z 72 h forecast ...
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... hour=072hr
pretty darn close, I think
compare to...
GFS
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=072hr
UKMET
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... hour=072hr
and (talk about kicking something when it's down) the Canadian
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=072hr
ECMWF and NOGAPS look to be undoing the changes they showed in the 00Z run, but they haven't fully undone them yet...
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