Here is what the 00Z Globals are saying!

[southerngale]

This has probably already been posted..but the 00z MM5 shows Emily going north of Jamaica then hitting near the TX/LA border:





Here's the loop:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc2.cgi?time=2005071500&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Well, this is obviously a far right outlier, but just curious...what does it see? A weaker ridge?

[gkrangers]

Trough drops down and develops a pretty significant weakness in the ridge, according to the MM5.

[HouTXmetro]

Wait, didn't the MM5 outperform all the other models last year?

[southerngale]

k, thanks gk. I don't buy this solution...it's all alone, just wondering what it saw. I can see where it shows the storm going but I've still got to learn what all the colorful swirly lines mean.

[GalvestonDuck]

Wait, didn't the MM5 outperform all the other models last year?

To quote Derek from a long past thread:

for the 100th time

the FSU MM5 is run at too low of a resolution. MM5 needs to be run much higher, more like under 20km (tomorrow, with Dennis being farther to the west, I can start using 15km instead of 18

I keep meaning a low resolution, not high

And it had Dennis hitting Tampa at one time.

[HouTXmetro]

All I'm saying is that last year, I remember discussions about how the MM5 outperformed the other models. Is that correct?

[hicksta]

Im wondering how she will turn N like that so quickly.. Although these people know so much more than me i wouldnt be suprised.

[GalvestonDuck]

I'm looking....

[clfenwi]

Wait, didn't the MM5 outperform all the other models last year?

Of the models that NHC keeps track of, the top performing model track-wise was the FSU Superensemble... see http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/pdfs/2004.pdf

Note that NHC doesn't keep track of MM5 versions, so I don't know if there was a version that did even better than the Superensemble...

[deltadog03]

I think the ridge is going to be weaker.....plus, i don't the models are handling the trof overhead right now either...TX trof i mean....

[southerngale]

I think the ridge is going to be weaker.....plus, i don't the models are handling the trof overhead right now either...TX trof i mean....

Why do you think it's going to be weaker? Just wondering if you have some reason for it or just one of those "gut" feelings people get.

[hicksta]

I think the ridge is going to be weaker.....plus, i don't the models are handling the trof overhead right now either...TX trof i mean....

Why do you think it's going to be weaker? Just wondering if you have some reason for it or just one of those "gut" feelings people get.

You just reminded me off a feeling i get by roger creager. ima go listen to that song. =]. And delta you might be correct this far out so many possobilties we shall just see. you might be saying i told you so in a few days.

[GalvestonDuck]

Maybe this will help also. I didn't really find any specifics about how well or poorly it performed for any particular storms last year, except this from Derecho that basically explains that it could be a good short-range model. Not saying it didn't do well -- I just haven't found anything one way or the other that specifically praises it for last year.

If I can add something here. When Charley was passing just north of Cuba I was sitting in Venice, FL. We were watching the Tampa NBC afffiliate weather and they had a system called VIPIR. Steve Jerve who is Channel 8's MET. said that 20 computer models had Charley going in just north of Tampa, but this one model or forecasting program called VIPIR had Charley going through Charlotte Harbor- Which it did.

Has anyone ever heard of this system elsewhere or give any credence to it's true abilities?

Thanks.

VIPIR isn't a computer forecast model. It's a system that local TV stations subscribe to to show fancy-schmancy 3-D graphics of radars and whatnot.

From various reports, it seems to me various local TV stations have used the MM5 model and falsely described it as "our" model..as if the station had its own computer model; it happened to perform very well for Charley on the short-range forecast, and I suspect this is what you were shown; not certain whether the station was deceptive or you misheard what he said.

The MM5 has some usefulness as a short-range model but it's no supermodel or anything, and you can't judge a model on one storm.

[deltadog03]

I think the ridge is going to be weaker.....plus, i don't the models are handling the trof overhead right now either...TX trof i mean....

Why do you think it's going to be weaker? Just wondering if you have some reason for it or just one of those "gut" feelings people get.

well, on some of the models it just looks like it fluxes back and forth...but, with that said, even if it is strong, the models are not seeming to grasp the idea that this trof overhead is worth anything...FWD made a great point this morning...the ULL will pretty much move to the SE and DEEPEN....jmo....we will see.

[HouTXmetro]

That coupled with the discussion from NOLA-NWS stating that the models are intializing the trough 2 degrees warmer than what they should be, (Whatever that means). I wish someone could provide more insight to the significance of the NWS-NOLA discussion last night.

[vbhoutex]

Trough drops down and develops a pretty significant weakness in the ridge, according to the MM5.

This has been concerning me since it appears the trough may be sticking around long enough(longer than anticipated and maybe a little further South) and more disturbances may be riding along it to bring on a larger weakness than anticipated in the ridge. IF that happens then the MM5 scenario could become reality. Since none of the models I am aware of see it as the MM5 does, attm I can't place much credence in it. For the time being I am still anticipating a S TX landfall as the furtherest N it will go, but I am definitely watching Emily intently!!!

[cycloneye]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 31&start=0

Go to todays 12z run of the globals at thread above at link to see the latest from them.

[hicksta]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=68131&start=0

Go to todays 12z run of the globals at thread above at link to see the latest from them.

But models change so quickly this far out. some had it near free port the other day. All we can do right now is just sit relax and wait. thats all you can do. we should know soon this weekend