Hurricane Emily Advisories

[feederband]

In the 12:15 shot looks like we may have a storm demon in the ne quad away from the cdo maybe he had something to do with it...

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST FRI JUL 15 2005

....EMILY A LITTLE WEAKER...STILL A DANGEROUS HURRICANE...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD
TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER...AND FOR THE ENTIRE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI
BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.9 WEST OR ABOUT 465
MILES...745 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...EMILY WILL BE PASSING TO THE SOUTH OR VERY
NEAR JAMAICA ON SATURDAY.

DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT
EMILY HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
DECREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS
A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES... 65 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 968 MB...28.59 INCHES.

EMILY MAY PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...AND 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. EMILY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER JAMAICA...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...14.4 N... 70.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 968 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

[Brent]

HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005
1500Z FRI JUL 15 2005

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD
TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER...AND FOR THE ENTIRE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI
BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 70.9W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 30SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 70SE 40SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 100SE 75SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 70.9W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 70.1W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.0N 73.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 50SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.5N 77.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.0N 80.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.5N 83.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 22.0N 89.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 25.0N 94.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 26.0N 98.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 70.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

FORECASTER AVILA

[arlwx]

Hurricane Emily Discussion Number 19


Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on July 15, 2005



an Air Force plane currently observing the structure of Emily has
reported concentric eyewalls of 8 and 25 N mi respectively. This
suggests that Emily may be going through an eyewall replacement
cycle...which would result in fluctuations in intensity. Because
the last time the recon measured winds to support category four
hurricane was early this morning...there is no eye observed on
satellite imagery...and the cloud pattern has deteriorated...the
initial intensity has been reduced to 110 kt in this advisory. The
upper-level environment is not as favorable for strengthening as it
was for Dennis last week. Water vapor images show a large
upper-low over the western Caribbean and this feature will likely
increase the shear over Emily. In fact...the SHIPS model is showing
increasing shear over the western Caribbean. For the past few
days...all global models were weakening the upper-low and they
still do...but this feature has become larger instead. Therefore...
some weakening is forecast but assuming that the global models will
likely be partially correct in forecasting a favorable upper-level
environment...Emily is forecast to remain as major hurricane
over the western Caribbean Sea. Once Emily crosses Yucatan and
weakens...none of the guidance suggests re-intensification over the
western Gulf of Mexico. The official forecast follows this
scenario.

Emily has continued to move toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees
at 17 knots around the periphery a strong deep layer subtropical
ridge which is the strongest from the Bahamas westward across the
Gulf of Mexico. This pattern would keep Emily on this general track
through the next 5 days. The official forecast is on the southern
edge of the track envelope since all guidance has shown a northward
bias so far.
The structure of Emily has been able to be observed by the
Netherlands Antilles radar located at Curacao.
-
Forecaster Avila

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 15/1500z 14.4n 70.9w 110 kt
12hr VT 16/0000z 15.0n 73.5w 105 kt
24hr VT 16/1200z 16.5n 77.0w 105 kt
36hr VT 17/0000z 18.0n 80.0w 105 kt
48hr VT 17/1200z 19.5n 83.0w 105 kt
72hr VT 18/1200z 22.0n 89.0w 90 kt
96hr VT 19/1200z 25.0n 94.0w 90 kt
120hr VT 20/1200z 26.0n 98.5w 60 kt

[wx247]

Why no restrengthening after crossing the Yucatan? Just because the models don't is a reason to not do it? Is there not a synoptic answer that could be provided in the discussion?

I am not saying that I want it strengthen again... far from it... but why on Earth would that be what you would say? Oh, did I ever mention that Avilla is not my fave?

[Brent]

Why no restrengthening after crossing the Yucatan? Just because the models don't is a reason to not do it? Is there not a synoptic answer that could be provided in the discussion?

I am not saying that I want it strengthen again... far from it... but why on Earth would that be what you would say? Oh, did I ever mention that Avilla is not my fave?

That disturbs me a bit. "Oh, it's only going to be a Cat 2, maybe even weaker, no need to worry".

No wonder I've never liked Avila. Look, if it's likely to weaken, fine, but tell us why, I don't think the models last week ever predicted Dennis to be almost a Cat 5???

[Scorpion]

He explains that it will continue weakening due to shear induced by the ULL. A weakening storm hitting the Yucatan will most likely not recover. This is great news, looks like Cozumel and Cancun might be spared from a monster.

[x-y-no]

Why no restrengthening after crossing the Yucatan? Just because the models don't is a reason to not do it? Is there not a synoptic answer that could be provided in the discussion?

I am not saying that I want it strengthen again... far from it... but why on Earth would that be what you would say? Oh, did I ever mention that Avilla is not my fave?

I think it's on the theory that the envirnoment will still be sheared.

Jan

[stormie_skies]

I know its Friday, and I might just have brain rot, but didn't the 5 am discussion say Em would strengthen back into a major hurricane upon hitting the warm Gulf waters? I understand that this shear was somewhat unforseen, but thats an awful big flip-flop to make in a matter of hours...

Is the shear really that pronounced (in the Gulf as well as the Carribean)? Were they that taken by surprise? Usually they allow some room for changes in conditions before making such a drastic change...

I dunno....maybe I just dont get it... I sure hope he is right.....I would just hate to see a bunch of people all along the coast relax when they shouldn't....

[cycloneye]

[Roxy]

Dear Lord...that puts us barely in the cone. Nice....

[dwg71]

Anybody else have a problem with this forcast. Here's why I say that. Emily has had a 285 heading for a long time now and NHC says it should continue this throughout the forcast period, but after 12 hours they have it taking a more northerly track (305 or so). Emily has been reluctant to gain altitude at all. Since 4PM yesterday it went from 13.3 to its 14.4 now, all the while moving 5 degrees west. Now they have her gaining 1.5N and moving only 2.5W in the 12-24 hour time frame.

If emily comes anywhere near 15N and 75W, I think the models will have shown they are struggling with the ridge to the north.

Just some random thoughts, a hit further south on the pennisula would be better in the long run, due to weakening Emily.

Comments...

[Thunder44]

I know its Friday, and I might just have brain rot, but didn't the 5 am discussion say Em would strengthen back into a major hurricane upon hitting the warm Gulf waters? I understand that this shear was somewhat unforseen, but thats an awful big flip-flop to make in a matter of hours...

Is the shear really that pronounced (in the Gulf as well as the Carribean)? Were they that taken by surprise? Usually they allow some room for changes in conditions before making such a drastic change...

I dunno....maybe I just dont get it... I sure hope he is right.....I would just hate to see a bunch of people all along the coast relax when they shouldn't....

Different forecaster, different opinion, different forceast

[Derek Ortt]

Just because Avila doesnt say what you want him to, doesnt mean that he's the wors. In fact, he's by far the best one at NHC and he doesnt hype everything ino a cat 7

[Derek Ortt]

and 90KT is a very dangerous hurricane

[stormie_skies]

Derek - but what is he seeing in the Gulf that clearly none of the others have been seeing?

I understand that the shear in the Carribean was unexpected, but will there be shear over the W. Gulf as well??

[Derek Ortt]

yeah

this forecast is no different from the other nhc forecasts. They also never indicated intensification over the GOM. Some people were wishing for intensification and saw what they wanted to, but no NHC forecast ever indicated intensification in the GOM

[dhweather]

yeah

this forecast is no different from the other nhc forecasts. They also never indicated intensification over the GOM. Some people were wishing for intensification and saw what they wanted to, but no NHC forecast ever indicated intensification in the GOM

WHAT?!@#$ WISH_CASTING ? HERE? NEVER!!!!

[stormie_skies]

yeah

this forecast is no different from the other nhc forecasts. They also never indicated intensification over the GOM. Some people were wishing for intensification and saw what they wanted to, but no NHC forecast ever indicated intensification in the GOM

I don't see any need to accuse anyone of "wishing for intensification"... that said, I thought (perhaps wrongly) that some intensification was implied by the latter part of the 5 am discussion:

THE GOOD OUTFLOW PATTERN AND NEAR 29C SSTS AHEAD OF EMILY SUGGEST THAT THE HURRICANE SHOULD EASILY RETAIN AN INTENSITY OF CATEGORY 3 TO CATEGORY 4 UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS OVER THE YUCATAN. AFTER EMILY EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...29-30C SSTS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE CYCLONE AT LEAST A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE.

I guess I assumed that the storm would weaken some over land (thats why it says it will be a 3/4 UNTIL landfall - not during), emerge into the Gulf, and once again become AT LEAST a Cat. 3. If it weakened over land at all, or if that "at least" means anything, that implies some form of intensification, doesn't it?

I was comparing the ominous sound of that "at least" and the proposition of a major in the Gulf with the next discussion....

ONCE EMILY CROSSES YUCATAN AND
WEAKENS...NONE OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RE-INTENSIFICATION OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS
SCENARIO.

You don't see a discrepency there?

I guess I do...rightly or wrongly ...there was a huge change of tone between the two and I think its understandable that people who aren't "-removed-" found it jarring...

[Thunder44]

The 5am forecast from Stewart this morning, indicated an increase in strength after it left the Yucatan into the SW Gulf.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0900Z 13.9N 69.2W 115 KT
12HR VT 15/1800Z 14.7N 71.8W 115 KT
24HR VT 16/0600Z 15.8N 75.3W 115 KT
36HR VT 16/1800Z 17.2N 78.7W 115 KT
48HR VT 17/0600Z 18.5N 82.2W 115 KT
72HR VT 18/0600Z 21.0N 88.0W 100 KT...INLAND OVER YUCATAN
96HR VT 19/0600Z 24.0N 93.0W 105 KT...OVER SW GULFMEX
120HR VT 20/0600Z 25.5N 97.0W 105 KT