12z Globals,UKMET,Canadian,GFS,Nogaps,ECMWF

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cycloneye
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12z Globals,UKMET,Canadian,GFS,Nogaps,ECMWF

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 15, 2005 10:31 am

OK folks let's concentrate all the models from the 12z run here as we did well last night with the 00z run of the globals
Last edited by cycloneye on Fri Jul 15, 2005 1:23 pm, edited 9 times in total.
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#2 Postby alicia-w » Fri Jul 15, 2005 10:31 am

and where might those be?
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#3 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 15, 2005 10:35 am

alicia-w wrote:and where might those be?


I only created the thread now the members will post the links to the 12z globals.
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#4 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Jul 15, 2005 10:36 am

cycloneye wrote:
alicia-w wrote:and where might those be?


I only created the thread now the members will post the links to the 12z globals.


Stupid Question Cyclone. What is that cane beating the hell out of your island as a Icon?
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#5 Postby Brent » Fri Jul 15, 2005 10:37 am

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
alicia-w wrote:and where might those be?


I only created the thread now the members will post the links to the 12z globals.


Stupid Question Cyclone. What is that cane beating the hell out of your island as a Icon?


Georges 1998... came directly across Puerto Rico.
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#6 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 15, 2005 10:38 am

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
alicia-w wrote:and where might those be?


I only created the thread now the members will post the links to the 12z globals.


Stupid Question Cyclone. What is that cane beating the hell out of your island as a Icon?


Georges.
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#7 Postby clfenwi » Fri Jul 15, 2005 10:39 am

A note for people posting on models that are still in progress: Please comment only on what the model is actually showing...don't speculate on where the model is going to put landfall...we saw last night that several of the globals had hard left turns before landfall, which meant that they didn't make landfall in the place the earlier frames of the forecast seemed to be indicating...
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#8 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Jul 15, 2005 10:40 am

cycloneye wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
alicia-w wrote:and where might those be?


I only created the thread now the members will post the links to the 12z globals.


Stupid Question Cyclone. What is that cane beating the hell out of your island as a Icon?


Georges.


Ok Do remember that now...Its one Scary pic..
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#9 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 15, 2005 10:41 am

clfenwi wrote:A note for people posting on models that are still in progress: Please comment only on what the model is actually showing...don't speculate on where the model is going to put landfall...we saw last night that several of the globals had hard left turns before landfall, which meant that they didn't make landfall in the place the earlier frames of the forecast seemed to be indicating...


That is an excellent observation thanks for bringing it.
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#10 Postby gkrangers » Fri Jul 15, 2005 10:48 am

12 UKMET

Passes just south of Jamaica, over the northern tip of the Yucatan, and the last frame shows it just offshore of Brownsville.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation
Last edited by gkrangers on Fri Jul 15, 2005 10:52 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#11 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 15, 2005 10:50 am

gkrangers wrote:12 UKMET

Passes just south of Jamaica, over the northern tip of the Yucatan, and the last frame shows it just offshore of Brownsville.


But to see that the members need a link posted. :)
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#12 Postby dhweather » Fri Jul 15, 2005 10:57 am

The 12Z GFS is trickling in, 60 hours out so far, approaching the tip of the Yucatan:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... ex_m.shtml
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#13 Postby CaptinCrunch » Fri Jul 15, 2005 10:58 am

The GOM looks good

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html
Last edited by CaptinCrunch on Fri Jul 15, 2005 10:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#14 Postby clfenwi » Fri Jul 15, 2005 10:58 am

At first UKMET is very slightly south of its 00Z run... difference becomes more noticable after 48 hours or so... ultimately about a storm core width further south than previous run..
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#15 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 15, 2005 10:59 am

dhweather wrote:The 12Z GFS is trickling in, 60 hours out so far, approaching the tip of the Yucatan:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... ex_m.shtml


Let's wait until 120-144 hours to then post a more complete run. :)
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#16 Postby gkrangers » Fri Jul 15, 2005 10:59 am

NOGAPs is trickling in....prolly take about 30 mins.
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#17 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 15, 2005 11:00 am

gkrangers wrote:NOGAPs is trickling in....prolly take about 30 mins.


Ok wait it to complete thru 120-144 hours. :)
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#18 Postby gkrangers » Fri Jul 15, 2005 11:01 am

cycloneye wrote:
gkrangers wrote:NOGAPs is trickling in....prolly take about 30 mins.


Ok wait it to complete thru 120-144 hours. :)
Thats why I said it'll take about 30 minutes...
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#19 Postby clfenwi » Fri Jul 15, 2005 11:27 am

Canadian...continues to have issues keeping a closed low...early part of forecast is further south than previous run...shows Emily passing just south of Jamaica at 24 hours... after that forecast looks similar to previous two runs...tip of Yucatan at 48 hours... landfall somewhere IVO Rio Grande at 84 hours

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/model_for ... bal_e.html
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#20 Postby dhweather » Fri Jul 15, 2005 11:33 am

144 hour GFS - South Texas Landfall


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
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