Will she reach Cat. 5? [Bump]

[Swimdude]

Last update, at 2 a.m. ... 952 mb... 135 mph winds. So, what do y'all think? Cat. 5 on our hands?

Note: Emily was a tropical storm with 60 mph winds, less than 36 hours ago.

Note: Thread has been bumped... After Emily has once again reached cat. 4 status, and seems to be continuing to strengthen.

[Hurricaneman]

I think its a 50/50 chance, but i said no

[Anonymous]

Same, I think it will become a very strong Cat 4.

[Hurricane Cheese]

Yes....she's going to be entering the same territory that allowed IVAN to grow into a 165 mph Cat 5 last September.

Also, the W Carribean is traditionally a place that has allowed for monster storms to grow (Ivan, Mitch, Gilbert)....

As long as the shear remains low she'll be primed to strengthen....

[gkrangers]

Same, I think it will become a very strong Cat 4.

Agree. I think it could sustain itself around 140-150MPH.

Stronger is possible, but its always unlikely.

[jkt21787]

We're split in the middle so far! I will break that though by saying..no. I just don't see it. Of course I have nothing to say it won't happen, so who knows!

[HouTXmetro]

She is already a cat 4 (135 mph winds)

[Wnghs2007]

Your forgetting its going to be going over INCREASINGLY WARMER waters and higher oceanic heat content that will even feed the storm more. And with shear or dry air not being a hinderence this storm has unlimited potentail....After a possible Eyewall Replacement Cycle this thing could really strengthen and possibly reach Category 5.

Now what I am saying is, I dont expect a Category 5 before an ERC and then I expect it to weaken 5-10 mph during the ERC or hold its own. But after the ERC it will have plenty of time over the High Temp waters of the NW Carribean to grow before another ERC and that is when it will possibly reach Cat 5 in the time between ERC's.

[Swimdude]

*Votes 'yes' and ties us, 6 all*

[Pebbles]

I went with yes... and not one to usually say cat 5. As long as she stays with the models and doesn't hit land the conditions couldn't get more perfect for this. Now whether or not she can sustain it for long is a whole different question.

[abajan]

I voted "No" because IMO it's moving a tad too quickly for anymore significant intensification. Plus, whenever the NHC says "fluctuations in intensity can be expected..." or words to that effect, their thinking is that the system has pretty much peaked.

Nevertheless, I still expect it to become a strong Cat 4, possibly peaking out at about 150 mph.

[ericinmia]

Even though we have had a lot of powerful storms this past couple years...
For a Cat5 to form, the conditions have to be near perfect. Look how close Dennis was, and he couldn't attain it.

I voted 'no'.
-Eric

[Cookiely]

I vote no.

[wayoutfront]

I said yes just for kicks.. if it does , it will weaken again quickly

[otowntiger]

Nope. She's already beginning to unravel some. I don't think she'll weaken significantly but I think she has already peaked. JMO.

[bahamaswx]

Voted no. It's July.

[CaptinCrunch]

Yes she will in the GOM!!

[canegrl04]

This may be July,but its not a typical July.We have already had a cat 4 named Dennis.Yes,it will be a cat 5.She will enter the Western GOM for god sakes

[HURAKAN]

I think is possible, Emily is moving over warmer waters, atmospheric conditions seem to be favorable for future development, and I believe, after the eyewall replacement, Emily will continue to intensify and may get close or reach cat. 5 near the Cayman Islands.

[Brent]

No. Too early in the season.

If it were Late August/September then probably.