invest 99 image (what did it just do?)

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HURAKAN
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#21 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jul 15, 2005 7:39 am

CENTRAL TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 24N42W THROUGH A 1011 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 16N44W TO 10N45W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE
CONTINUES TO DISPLAY AN IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE SIGNATURE WITH AN
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION TO THE N OF THE
LOW FROM 16N-21.5N BETWEEN 40W-46W.


Not much interest from the NHC on this system.
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x-y-no
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#22 Postby x-y-no » Fri Jul 15, 2005 7:40 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I been seeing a closed cirualtion for the last 6 hours....


Maybe your eyes are better than mine, who knows ... I haven't spotted any true westerlies in the low level cloud movement yet.

Jan
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#23 Postby Thunder44 » Fri Jul 15, 2005 7:40 am

Dvorak estimates are still "too weak". This won't be upgraded anytime soon.
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#24 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jul 15, 2005 7:43 am

Image
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#25 Postby dgparent » Fri Jul 15, 2005 7:45 am

Looks good though

Image
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#26 Postby alicia-w » Fri Jul 15, 2005 7:46 am

Thunder44 wrote:Dvorak estimates are still "too weak". This won't be upgraded anytime soon.


I had a bookmark for the site where this info was and since my work computer crashed, I havent been able to find it. Help?
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#27 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jul 15, 2005 7:47 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

Dvorak numbers website.
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#28 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jul 15, 2005 7:48 am

Here's a shot I just snapped in McIdas. Could be a weak LLC there near 17.8N/44W:

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/franklin3.gif">
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#29 Postby Hyperstorm » Fri Jul 15, 2005 7:51 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I been seeing a closed cirualtion for the last 6 hours....


The LLC is too fragile and right now it has some SW shear over it. There is no longer a closed circulation. Over the past few hours, it has become diffuse. DON'T expect a tropical depression today. I was thinking tomorrow, but even that might be a bit too early.

Keep in mind, that the longer it stays weak, the better the chances of getting closer to land...
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#30 Postby alicia-w » Fri Jul 15, 2005 7:55 am

HURAKAN wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

Dvorak numbers website.


Thanks!!!
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#31 Postby Cookiely » Fri Jul 15, 2005 8:16 am

What is causing the split? Anyone know. Is it dry air or shear? It seems to have a wierd color?
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#32 Postby wx247 » Fri Jul 15, 2005 8:38 am

This looks nothing like immediate development. The system looks horrible. I think if this develops, it is going to have to survive a little farther to the west first.
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