Question about ERC and intensification... Mets chime in...

[Pebbles]

Can a hurricane intensify while going through an ERC. I know normally they will drop pressure slightly and then rebound. But is there any data that supports pressure ever remaining stable or even decreasing as an ERC occurs?

[Derek Ortt]

ships says that this is a real weakening trend. The no land ships even has this below cat 3 (which I am not entirely sold on)

the AVNI (yes, it has limited skill), has this at 145KT near Texas

GFDL is between the two extremes

as for your question, not usually. However, I am not sure this is an EWRC

[wxwatcher91]

NHC says it is... in the last discussion

[Nimbus]

Temporarily it weakens the storm.
As small storms intensify they often outgrow their eye.
Emily will likely decide on a larger size which will allow her to ventilate more easily and expand her wind field.
The pressures usually bomb after an ERC with the favorable conditions Emily is currently experiencing.
I'm looking for a little slowdown in forward speed and a turn toward 290 this afternoon after the ERC.

[Thunder44]

I don't know. They eye has not been seen for several hours now and it doesn't look like it's coming back yet. Maybe it is on a weakening trend right now.

[wxwatcher91]

I don't know. They eye has not been seen for several hours now and it doesn't look like it's coming back yet. Maybe it is on a weakening trend right now.

sorry but no... Emily has actually gotten even more organized over the past few hours and an eye should show up on IR within the next hour... this thing is gonna bomb... convection has increased a lot and Emily has grown larger

[Thunder44]

I don't know. They eye has not been seen for several hours now and it doesn't look like it's coming back yet. Maybe it is on a weakening trend right now.

sorry but no... Emily has actually gotten even more organized over the past few hours and an eye should show up on IR within the next hour... this thing is gonna bomb... convection has increased a lot and Emily has grown larger

We'll see if an eye shows up. But right now, a cat 4 hurricane should have eye with it (seen on satellite imagery). Recon should be in there and I think they will find a weaker storm. That's not to say thought it won't comeback later on.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It got a very well defined eye. Look at ABC island radar...Check out the forum below.

[wxwatcher91]

I don't know. They eye has not been seen for several hours now and it doesn't look like it's coming back yet. Maybe it is on a weakening trend right now.

sorry but no... Emily has actually gotten even more organized over the past few hours and an eye should show up on IR within the next hour... this thing is gonna bomb... convection has increased a lot and Emily has grown larger

We'll see if an eye shows up. But right now, a cat 4 hurricane should have eye with it. Recon should be in there and I think they will find a weaker storm. That's not to say thought it won't comeback later on.

yeah I dont doubt they will find a weaker storm, but because weakening is inevitable when going through an EWRC

[Thunder44]

It got a very well defined eye. Look at ABC island radar...Check out the forum below.

I saw it. But it's not clearing out satellite images yet.

[Thunder44]

Actually if you look at the radar now, it looks like it looks ragged in the last few images.

http://www.weather.an/sat_img/radar.asp

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Here is the latest...It shows that the eye is now bigger then it was earlier. With a deep area of yellows/reds developing.

http://www.weather.an/sat_img/radar2.asp

[Thunder44]

Here is the latest...It shows that the eye is now bigger then it was earlier. With a deep area of yellows/reds developing.

http://www.weather.an/sat_img/radar2.asp

It looks like it opened up on the SW side.