Officially CATEGORY 4...

[AnthonyC]

Has the Atlantic Hurricane Season ever had two category 4 hurricanes by July 15?! Seems awfully early. In any event, with the newest 2am advisory hurricane Emily is officially a category 4 hurricane.

Anthony

[HouTXmetro]

God bless those in her path!!

[Aslkahuna]

No, and in fact prior to Dennis there had been only one Cat 4 hurricane ever observed in July in the ATL.

Steve

[Swimdude]

Here's to another record breaking season.

[Hurricaneman]

Indeed

[Sanibel]

If you look at the loops the little "bumps" Emily has been doing all day are actually trochoidal wobbles. The continuous intensification isn't surprising.

952 is a notch high for an intensifying category 4. Seems like the winds are preceding the pressure drops instead of the other way around.

Emily has bulled through the Caribbean doldrums without any effect. It is a strange intensifier at fast forward speed...

[jasons2k]

If you look at the loops the little "bumps" Emily has been doing all day are actually trochoidal wobbles. The continuous intensification isn't surprising.

952 is a notch high for an intensifying category 4. Seems like the winds are preceding the pressure drops instead of the other way around.

Emily has bulled through the Caribbean doldrums without any effect. It is a strange intensifier at fast forward speed...

I actually wondered that too - isn't 20mph forward speed a bit fast for a storm to intensify so quickly?

[Sanibel]

Storm is doing some kind of burst. Don't ask me. Probably further intensification...

[storm4u]

Anyone in the gom area has to watch this one closely!!!

[Pebbles]

Storm is doing some kind of burst. Don't ask me. Probably further intensification...

I noticed that.. but the eye looks elliptical on sat. Can't decide if she's intensifying or going through an ERC... or both LOL..then again either way she's gonna strengthen huh?

[storm4u]

:eek:

God bless those in her path!!

You might be in her path soon!!!!

[jasons2k]

That is starting to worry me

[NC George]

952 is a notch high for an intensifying category 4. Seems like the winds are preceding the pressure drops instead of the other way around.
.

Well, if its moving forward at 20, 20 mph of the windspeed is forward movement. So I would say this is a fast moving category 3 storm (115 mph winds) producing cat 4 winds in one quadrent due to forward speed.

IMHO, it would be a better way to describe storms in this way, rather than making an entire storm a 'cat 4' just because in one spot they measured high wind speeds.

[Pebbles]

952 is a notch high for an intensifying category 4. Seems like the winds are preceding the pressure drops instead of the other way around.
.

Well, if its moving forward at 20, 20 mph of the windspeed is forward movement. So I would say this is a fast moving category 3 storm (115 mph winds) producing cat 4 winds in one quadrent due to forward speed.

IMHO, it would be a better way to describe storms in this way, rather than making an entire storm a 'cat 4' just because in one spot they measured high wind speeds.

They figure windspeed without forward motion included in it ...she's definitely cat 4...

[Sanibel]

I don't know the logical formulas for that, but it doesn't sound right because a 15mph forward speed storm has normal pressure/wind relationships and is only 5mph less.


My guess is we will see more drops...

[HouTXmetro]

:eek:

God bless those in her path!!

You might be in her path soon!!!!

I won't be too concerned until I see the NHC black line within 100 miles of Galveston.

[NC George]

They figure windspeed without forward motion included in it ...she's definitely cat 4...

Nope, had a long discussion with a professional met about this during Dennis. The windspeed reported in the public updates is the actual (if measured) or estimated (if not measured) windspeed that is on the ground, which means inclusive of forward speed winds and cyclonic winds. They even mention in the NHC discussion that the highest winds (125 kt) were in the NE quadrent.

What this means is you DO NOT need to ADD forward speed to the public advisory in order to get actual wind speed on the ground, but that also means you would need to SUBTRACT forward speed in order to get cyclonic wind speed, which, IMHO, is indicative of the actual storm strength. This explains why Mobile, AL got such light effects from Dennis as compared to Panama City Beach - Mobile had winds of less than 80 (120 reported at Navarre Beach minus 20 for forward speed to get cyclonic wind speed, and minus another 20 for being on the west side of the storm where forward speed and cyclonic winds are in opposite directions. )

Coincidently, I was using this same idea in the opposite direction to forecast Dennis being Cat 4 about 1 hour before it went public. My reasoning: Max flight level winds were reported by RECON at 105 kt in the SW quadrent (about 110 mph on the ground,) and Dennis was moving forward at 15. Because this is the quadrent where forward speed and cyclonic speed are opposite, you need to add twice the forward speed in order to get ground windspeed in the NE quadrent. Do this and you get a flight level windspeed of 135 KT, or a 145 mph Cat 4 on the ground. Sure enough, on the next public advisory (Advisory 24,) windspeed was adjusted up to the exact speed my math had predicted, using the same RECON data the NHC uses.


See, the math backs me up every time, and I stand my my original assertion: Emily is a fast moving Cat 3 with Cat 4 winds in the NE quad.

[abajan]

They figure windspeed without forward motion included in it ...she's definitely cat 4...

Nope, had a long discussion with a professional met about this during Dennis. The windspeed reported in the public updates is the actual (if measured) or estimated (if not measured) windspeed that is on the ground, which means inclusive of forward speed winds and cyclonic winds. They even mention in the NHC discussion that the highest winds (125 kt) were in the NE quadrent.

What this means is you DO NOT need to ADD forward speed to the public advisory in order to get actual wind speed on the ground, but that also means you would need to SUBTRACT forward speed in order to get cyclonic wind speed, which, IMHO, is indicative of the actual storm strength. This explains why Mobile, AL got such light effects from Dennis as compared to Panama City Beach - Mobile had winds of less than 80 (120 reported at Navarre Beach minus 20 for forward speed to get cyclonic wind speed, and minus another 20 for being on the west side of the storm where forward speed and cyclonic winds are in opposite directions. )

Coincidently, I was using this same idea in the opposite direction to forecast Dennis being Cat 4 about 1 hour before it went public. My reasoning: Max flight level winds were reported by RECON at 105 kt in the SW quadrent (about 110 mph on the ground,) and Dennis was moving forward at 15. Because this is the quadrent where forward speed and cyclonic speed are opposite, you need to add twice the forward speed in order to get ground windspeed in the NE quadrent. Do this and you get a flight level windspeed of 135 KT, or a 145 mph Cat 4 on the ground. Sure enough, on the next public advisory (Advisory 24,) windspeed was adjusted up to the exact speed my math had predicted, using the same RECON data the NHC uses.


See, the math backs me up every time, and I stand my my original assertion: Emily is a fast moving Cat 3 with Cat 4 winds in the NE quad.

This is a topic that seems to cause confusion even among meteorologists. I've heard several TV meteorologists say that you need to add the forward speed and just as many state that it's already factored in.

[Scorpion]

Very interesting read NC George.

[swimaster20]

They figure windspeed without forward motion included in it ...she's definitely cat 4...

Nope, had a long discussion with a professional met about this during Dennis. The windspeed reported in the public updates is the actual (if measured) or estimated (if not measured) windspeed that is on the ground, which means inclusive of forward speed winds and cyclonic winds. They even mention in the NHC discussion that the highest winds (125 kt) were in the NE quadrent.

What this means is you DO NOT need to ADD forward speed to the public advisory in order to get actual wind speed on the ground, but that also means you would need to SUBTRACT forward speed in order to get cyclonic wind speed, which, IMHO, is indicative of the actual storm strength. This explains why Mobile, AL got such light effects from Dennis as compared to Panama City Beach - Mobile had winds of less than 80 (120 reported at Navarre Beach minus 20 for forward speed to get cyclonic wind speed, and minus another 20 for being on the west side of the storm where forward speed and cyclonic winds are in opposite directions. )

Coincidently, I was using this same idea in the opposite direction to forecast Dennis being Cat 4 about 1 hour before it went public. My reasoning: Max flight level winds were reported by RECON at 105 kt in the SW quadrent (about 110 mph on the ground,) and Dennis was moving forward at 15. Because this is the quadrent where forward speed and cyclonic speed are opposite, you need to add twice the forward speed in order to get ground windspeed in the NE quadrent. Do this and you get a flight level windspeed of 135 KT, or a 145 mph Cat 4 on the ground. Sure enough, on the next public advisory (Advisory 24,) windspeed was adjusted up to the exact speed my math had predicted, using the same RECON data the NHC uses.


See, the math backs me up every time, and I stand my my original assertion: Emily is a fast moving Cat 3 with Cat 4 winds in the NE quad.

This is a topic that seems to cause confusion even among meteorologists. I've heard several TV meteorologists say that you need to add the forward speed and just as many state that it's already factored in.

Same here, abajan, I've also heard many different things about that from Mets.