My weather hypothesis: The Zero Sum Effect

[CA _Tracker]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Keep an eye on this map:



My hypothesis is that areas that are below in their normal rainfall totals, experience brief periods of heavy downpours to "catch up". Hence the Net Sum is Zero.

For example, after years of drought in California, we had the second wettest winter on record. And as you can see, California is shaded deep green.

If my hypothesis is correct, Brownsville, TX and Beaumont, TX will get hit with a tropical system this season. Thus, reversing the mild and moderate areas of drought. If North Carolina continues to dry out, I'll add them to the list too.

[dhweather]

Unfortunately, most tropical systems bring quick and intense amounts of
rain that will simply runoff in drought plagued areas.

In my opinion, there's no qucik fix for a drought, it takes a series of
rain events to reverse the trend. Sure, a TS/Hurricane will help briefly,
but in most cases, it's very dry after a TS/Hurricane, making the
overall drought worse.

[Swimdude]

Wouldn't it be nice if nature perfectly balanced itself out? Humanity might like your hypothesis, but mother nature is against it.

[Anonymous]

Hmm-maybe people in the carolinas would have loved your hypothesis in the carolinas in 1999 after Dennis gave them copious amounts of rain so the tables were even. But along came floyd and flooded them out. Then came Irene which scraped the carolinas giving them even more insult to injury.

Charley dumped a lot of rain in orlando so they were no in a drought. But then came frances and floyd over the same just to make sure orlando didnt feel they needed anymore rain.

[Pebbles]

All I can say is it has been WAYYYY dry up here in chicago. Do you have a hypothesis for not tropics areas? Luckily most of our plants have faired ok... but just bought hubby 100 worth of plants for his "best garden i've ever had". Crossing my fingers they make it ok. Too bad a tropical storm can't come up here and fix things a tad. Just dunno what the farmers are doing there's lots of good soil here and in the central IL area.

Christine

[AL Chili Pepper]

Wyoming looks like a wrong piece in a jigsaw puzzle.

[Rainband]

Nice theory but last year shot it to hell

[CA _Tracker]

C'mon Beaumont!!!

[CA _Tracker]

Well, Dennis wound up dumping rain on Illinois, Kentucky and Missouri.

Will Emily bring rain to Brownsville, TX?

[jasons2k]

Thank goodness things are already turning around here in SE Texas. I've had rain the guage for the last 5 days with a moist pattern for the next several days. I don't see us listed as drought much longer.

[Steve]

I don't disagree with the idea that, all things being equal, eventually the tendency to normal may be realized by an extreme in the other direction. And occasionally tropical systems can serve to flush out said drought. We know that when there is drought in the Carolinas between the Atlantic and the Appalachain Mts. (sp?), a system will often ride up to reverse that drought. But I'm not sure that works for any and all other scenarios except in a general sense that nature attempts to balance itself out.

Steve

[Sanibel]

Cuba had one of the worst drought in years this winter and Dennis ran the length of it. But Cuba sits right in the heart of the tropical alley, so it isn't saying much.

[NC George]

That's what happened with Dennis and Floyd in NC in 1999. We were in a drought, people were saying, oh, a tropical storm wouldn't be so bad to fill up our water supply. Well, it filled up a bit too much, to the tune of 23 feet over flood stage, I believe. We don't wish for tropical relief from drought anymore.

[patsmsg]

Hmmmm. look at all the green on the GOM coast and you see the areas with the cooler water close to shore. Could be a correlation there with rivers dumping in cooler water. (FL-MS)

[MWatkins]

Actually...areas of southern Texas tend to be dry at this point in the summer as an impact of the overall pattern created by the significantly elevated SST's.

This is linked in the Elevated SST thread in the other forum but this paper is well worth re-linking.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/docs/wang ... mitted.pdf

The impact of the elevated SST's is well summarized...of course your zero-sum theory will be put to the test in Aug/Sept.

MW

[CA _Tracker]

Will Emily be my Brownsville storm?