Hurricane Emily
Unofficial Forecast # 5
July 15, 2005 12am Eastern
USE NHC FOR OFFICIAL INFO
Hurricane Emily has continued to deepen, and now has winds of 110 kt.
A west-northwestward track should continue for atleast the next 72 hours or so. However, my track has shifted north
due to the model guidance, and the NHC OFFICIAL TRACK shifting northward. This not only increases the danger for
the island of Jamaica, but also increases danger along the Texas coastline. My track shows a path just south of the
island of Jamaica, then a clip of the Northeast Yucatan, near Cancun, MX. From there, Northern Mexico and the
Southern coastline of Texas should be keeping an extremely close eye on it.
Small systems like Emily are subject to large fluctuations up and down in intensity, example extremes being 2004's
Hurricane Charley, and 2002's Hurricane Lili. However, the overall environment, with respect to shear, dry air, sea
surface temperatures and land interaction looks favorable up to the Yucatan. Therefore, further deepening into a
Category 4 Hurricane, which I have been forecasting since day one, is expected. After some slight weakening from
interaction with the Yucatan, further deepening is expected over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico.
12 Hours: 14.8 N/ 70.6 W - 115 kt
24 Hours: 16.0 N/ 74.1 W - 115 kt
36 Hours: 17.3 N/ 77.4 W - 115 kt
48 Hours: 18.8 N/ 80.9 W - 125 kt
72 Hours: 21.2 N/ 86.9 W - 130 kt
96 Hours: 22.9 N/ 92.0 W - 115 kt
120 Hours: 25.1 N/ 96.1 W -125 kt
