Here is what the 00Z Globals are saying!

[jkt21787]

That's actually a good bit further south there at the end. What do you have to say, hicksta?

[Swimdude]

where would that put galveston.

Besides under water?

[gkrangers]

Stop refreshing the NOGAPs so I can see it!

[hicksta]

That's actually a good bit further south there at the end. What do you have to say, hicksta?

id have to say itl shift more north..

[Stormcenter]

The fact that we are still talking about 4-5 days away and the models have shifted that much north concerns me. Now they could easily shift back south. The main thing to note is that maybe just maybe the High will build as far west or be as strong as first thought or some sort of trough will weaken it. Oh well so much for the "She is going to Mexico" talk for now.

[MWatkins]

The 0Z GFS is approx 180NM miles further north at 96 hours...and even the newest NOGAPS guidance wants to take Emily near western Cuba and through the Yucatan channel.

This looks a bit drastic...well...more than a bt drastic compared to the 12Z runs.

Perhaps it's a shift...or perhaps it's something with the strength of the system in the models as opposed to the 12z guidance.

Anyway...I am having connection problems...so I probably wont get a chance to reply....hope this gets through...but concerns for an eventual US landfall have increased some based on what has come out so far. Remember the globals that have come out have previously been the LEFT outliers. Hard to imagine the GFDL and UKMET coming in left of this guidance...

MW

[jkt21787]

That's actually a good bit further south there at the end. What do you have to say, hicksta?

id have to say itl shift more north..

What a surprise, the model shifts south (although just a bit), but you insist it will go back north.
Sounds like a wish-caster to me.

[clfenwi]

looks like a left bend between 96-120 hours keeps the NOGAPS forecast just south of a Texas landfall...

[gkrangers]

Echo what MW said...

NOGAPs landfall is further north than the 12z run.

[gkrangers]

looks like a left bend between 96-120 hours keeps the NOGAPS forecast just south of a Texas landfall...

The GFS makes a similar hard left, tho not as drastic. Interesting.

Prediction: UKMET visits Bourbon Street again.

[hicksta]

looks like a left bend between 96-120 hours keeps the NOGAPS forecast just south of a Texas landfall...

The GFS makes a similar hard left, tho not as drastic. Interesting.

Prediction: UKMET visits Bourbon Street again.

lol i wouldnt be suprised if it would

[jkt21787]

looks like a left bend between 96-120 hours keeps the NOGAPS forecast just south of a Texas landfall...

The GFS makes a similar hard left, tho not as drastic. Interesting.

Prediction: UKMET visits Bourbon Street again.

[clfenwi]

NOGAPS run is further north than 12Z run pretty much right off the start... *maybe* a touch south of the 18Z run... shows that the intermediate run was not an aberration... pretty significant as every 00/12 run of NOGAPS since Tuesday morning had been saying Yucatan with only slight north/south alterations...[/i]

[mobilebay]

It appears so far that the models are seeing a weakness in the ridge around Jamaica to western Cuba. However once in the GOm high pressure seems to build back over Emily pushing her westwerd. All of this is subject to change though.

[hicksta]

true.

[Radar]

That is what is so hard to predict about these storms, it is all in the timing. If everything doesnt synchornize as the meterologists expect it too it really begins a whole new ball game for them. I just hope that they can get a handle on Emily and where it is going soon so people in harms way can get prepared.

[jkt21787]

It appears so far that the models are seeing a weakness in the ridge around Jamaica to western Cuba. However once in the GOm high pressure seems to build back over Emily pushing her westwerd. All of this is subject to change though.

The question remains though at what latitude Emily makes it before turning west. That could determine a Texas or Mexico hit.

[dwg71]

one thing people are forgetting is Emily, she's been heading almost due west 275 for a couple of hours now.

[hicksta]

It appears so far that the models are seeing a weakness in the ridge around Jamaica to western Cuba. However once in the GOm high pressure seems to build back over Emily pushing her westwerd. All of this is subject to change though.

The question remains though at what latitude Emily makes it before turning west. That could determine a Texas or Mexico hit.

i doubt a mexico. with it near cuba.. doubt it

[clfenwi]

Having seen the NOGAPS output now, I am really curious as to what the ECMWF is going to offer... it has been saying Yucatan even longer than NOGAPS had been... since Monday night... again, with only slight alterations of point of landfall on the Peninsula...