Here is what the 00Z Globals are saying!

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jasons2k
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#21 Postby jasons2k » Thu Jul 14, 2005 10:50 pm

hicksta wrote:
jschlitz wrote:listen to the nhcwx music while we wait...suspenseful




site???


should be a link in the sticky up top - 9pm show
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#22 Postby jkt21787 » Thu Jul 14, 2005 10:51 pm

hicksta wrote:yea =]..

As long as you dont "wishcast" to your area, thats ok. It may be a little crazy to want this storm, but I guess you have the right to want it. :wink:
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#23 Postby mobilebay » Thu Jul 14, 2005 10:52 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:careful about interpreting early model results as a run

I just had an MM5 seem like it went in one direction, only to hook in another at the very end

LOL. I made a fool of myself one night last year. i jumped all over a early model run and posted "GFS much further north", only for it to do just what you mentioned. :lol:
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#24 Postby hicksta » Thu Jul 14, 2005 10:52 pm

this music is wierd... sounds like stephen king

im not -removed- im forcasting 8-)
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#25 Postby jasons2k » Thu Jul 14, 2005 10:55 pm

hicksta wrote:this music is wierd... sounds like stephen king

im not -removed- im forcasting 8-)


I'm not either man...i would love a little weak one, but not what I'm afraid Emily's gonna do
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#26 Postby jkt21787 » Thu Jul 14, 2005 10:56 pm

hicksta wrote:this music is wierd... sounds like stephen king

im not -removed- im forcasting 8-)

Well if you start forecasting it directly to your area, especially if data doesn't back it up, people won't think that.

I haven't seen you do that yet though, so you're cool, for now. :P :wink:
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#27 Postby hicksta » Thu Jul 14, 2005 10:57 pm

From the NWS Hou/Gal area weather forecast at 8:42pm:


"AS AN ASIDE...THE 18Z GFS SUGGESTS EMILY WILL COME A CALLING TO OUR AREA. ITS LATEST SOLUTION HAS THE STORM JUST BRUSHING THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN THE MATAGORDA BAY AREA. IT WILL BE VERY INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT THE 00Z SUITE OF MODELS HAS TO SAY."
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#28 Postby jkt21787 » Thu Jul 14, 2005 10:59 pm

hicksta wrote:From the NWS Hou/Gal area weather forecast at 8:42pm:


"AS AN ASIDE...THE 18Z GFS SUGGESTS EMILY WILL COME A CALLING TO OUR AREA. ITS LATEST SOLUTION HAS THE STORM JUST BRUSHING THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN THE MATAGORDA BAY AREA. IT WILL BE VERY INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT THE 00Z SUITE OF MODELS HAS TO SAY."

Very interesting. I'm sure its raised the eyebrows of the guys at the NWS. Of course we're about to find out whether we need to take that run to the garbage can or start giving it some credence.
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#29 Postby jasons2k » Thu Jul 14, 2005 10:59 pm

hicksta wrote:From the NWS Hou/Gal area weather forecast at 8:42pm:


"AS AN ASIDE...THE 18Z GFS SUGGESTS EMILY WILL COME A CALLING TO OUR AREA. ITS LATEST SOLUTION HAS THE STORM JUST BRUSHING THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN THE MATAGORDA BAY AREA. IT WILL BE VERY INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT THE 00Z SUITE OF MODELS HAS TO SAY."


WHOA!! I did not see that! :shocked!:
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#30 Postby hicksta » Thu Jul 14, 2005 11:01 pm

where would that put galveston.
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#31 Postby Aquawind » Thu Jul 14, 2005 11:01 pm

Wow.. Northward GFS.... :eek:


Image


Paul
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#32 Postby jkt21787 » Thu Jul 14, 2005 11:01 pm

Aquawind wrote:Wow.. Northward GFS.... :eek:


Image


Paul

Uh oh, get LA, MS, AL, FL everybody could be in this one now.
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#33 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Jul 14, 2005 11:02 pm

that looks like some of the previous MM5 runs
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#34 Postby jasons2k » Thu Jul 14, 2005 11:02 pm

hicksta wrote:where would that put galveston.


NE Quadrant, but prob outside eyewall
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#35 Postby hicksta » Thu Jul 14, 2005 11:03 pm

so if it sticks to this wed be in deep poo.. also i dont think it will go anywhere east of la
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#36 Postby jkt21787 » Thu Jul 14, 2005 11:03 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:that looks like some of the previous MM5 runs

I've heard some great things about MM5, I've looked at some stuff here locally for severe weather and summer time convection and its done really well overall, looks like it could become a good model for the tropics too.
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#37 Postby jkt21787 » Thu Jul 14, 2005 11:05 pm

hicksta wrote:so if it sticks to this wed be in deep poo.. also i dont think it will go anywhere east of la

I don't know, lets see what the GFS shows for landfall, this could be a significant trend evolving. Too early to tell...
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#38 Postby jasons2k » Thu Jul 14, 2005 11:06 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:that looks like some of the previous MM5 runs


What were the results of your in-house MM5?
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#39 Postby jkt21787 » Thu Jul 14, 2005 11:09 pm

96 hours, coming toward the central TX coast...still well offshore...
Image
Last edited by jkt21787 on Thu Jul 14, 2005 11:10 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#40 Postby gkrangers » Thu Jul 14, 2005 11:09 pm

Uh oh....this run is gonna result in a TX landfall for sure...
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