H Emily Recon Reports

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

For one they will look at all the storms late this year. In any thing they need to do they will then.

[gkrangers]

Whatever I won't comment on their decisions anymore.

You really wanna know why? Because 125kts is reduced to 112.5 knots, so they erred on the side of caution and rounded down to 110kts. Therefor 125MPH.

[clfenwi]

Bah, I am doing a horrible job of keeping up with the current center... looks like they passed through the eye se-nw...

0300 1326N 06727W 03073 5145 206 099 116 100 108 02980 0000000000
0300. 1327N 06728W 03107 5238 203 079 134 116 100 02920 0000000000
0301 1329N 06729W 03049 5299 173 030 130 128 041 02801 0000000000
0301. 1330N 06731W 02985 5314 114 023 128 120 026 02722 0000000000
0302 1330N 06733W 03063 5306 050 022 130 112 028 02808 0000000000
0302. 1330N 06735W 03124 5277 015 058 108 108 069 02899 0000000100
0303 1330N 06737W 03037 5211 019 095 094 094 109 02877 0000000100
0303. 1330N 06738W 03000 5137 012 090 148 100 091 02914 0000000000

not preceded by a complete traversal of the hurricane...

[gkrangers]

max winds on that pass?

[Derek Ortt]

looks like 108KT

[clfenwi]

Yeah, 10 second avg max was 108 knots, 30 second avg max was 99 knots...

[jasons2k]

Derek:

Have you posted the results of your in-house MM5? Didn't it shift north this AM?

Thanks.

[clfenwi]

Observation Number: 20
Time: 0331Z
Position: 13.5 N 67.5 W
Sea Level Pressure: 956 mb
Surface wind speed and direction: 16 knots // 075
925 millibar height: 296 meters
925 millibar winds: 16 knots // 090
850 millibar height: 1037 meters
850 millibar winds: 18 knots // 080
700 millibar height: 2700 meters
700 millibar winds: 22 knots // 070

EYE

[gkrangers]

Ruh Roh!

[jasons2k]

1mb

[clfenwi]

Ob number: 19
Time: 0328Z
Position: 13.5 North 67.5 West
Sea Level Pressure: 959 mb
925 millibar height: 321 meters
925 millibar winds: 83 knots//125
850 millibar height: 1062 meters
850 millibar winds: 85 knots // 145
700 millibar height: 2736 meters
700 millibar winds: 55 knots // 195
EYEWALL

[gkrangers]

Ruh Roh!

1mb

2mb since the last center fix. NHC estimated 957mb, figuring it would continue to drop since the last fix they recieved just before posting the advisory.

[clfenwi]

Time: 0335Z
Observation Number: 21
Position: 15.0 North 69.1 West
Flight level winds: 46 knots // 070
700 millibar height: 3156 meters

[jasons2k]

Ruh Roh!

1mb

2mb since the last center fix. NHC estimated 957mb, figuring it would continue to drop since the last fix they recieved just before posting the advisory.

I see! or as my best friend would say...Ahh-so!

[Scorpion]

36 mb pressure drop since 24 hours ago. Pretty significant.

[jasons2k]

36 mb pressure drop since 24 hours ago. Pretty significant.

Yes, and to think she still has the bathtub - err steam bath - in front of her

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

When is the next vortex?

[clfenwi]

They flew out to the northwest edge

0338 1503N 06911W 03047 0149 077 045 086 046 045 03248 0000000000

and have flown more or less due south since...most recent minob:

0350 1424N 06914W 03047 0138 068 037 096 048 037 03238 0000000000

[gkrangers]

They flew out to the northwest edge

0338 1503N 06911W 03047 0149 077 045 086 046 045 03248 0000000000

and have flown more or less due south since...most recent minob:

0350 1424N 06914W 03047 0138 068 037 096 048 037 03238 0000000000

Probably setting up for a SW-NE pass.

[clfenwi]

looks like they are currently going around the southwest edge:

0410 1312N 06920W 03049 0125 026 026 086 068 026 03226 0000000000