00:00z Model Guidance,GFDL,Bam Models to Texas

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cycloneye
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00:00z Model Guidance,GFDL,Bam Models to Texas

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 14, 2005 7:58 pm

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE EMILY (AL052005) ON 20050715 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050715 0000 050715 1200 050716 0000 050716 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.3N 66.7W 14.6N 69.8W 15.9N 72.9W 17.4N 76.2W
BAMM 13.3N 66.7W 14.4N 70.2W 15.6N 73.7W 16.7N 77.4W
A98E 13.3N 66.7W 13.8N 70.0W 14.7N 73.0W 16.0N 75.9W
LBAR 13.3N 66.7W 14.5N 70.1W 15.9N 73.6W 17.4N 77.1W
SHIP 105KTS 109KTS 106KTS 103KTS
DSHP 105KTS 109KTS 106KTS 103KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050717 0000 050718 0000 050719 0000 050720 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.9N 79.3W 22.1N 85.0W 25.1N 89.7W 27.5N 93.1W
BAMM 17.9N 80.7W 20.4N 86.8W 22.5N 91.3W 24.5N 94.1W
A98E 17.5N 78.8W 20.5N 84.6W 23.3N 89.7W 26.3N 93.2W
LBAR 18.9N 80.5W 21.8N 86.3W 24.3N 91.1W .0N .0W
SHIP 101KTS 99KTS 95KTS 92KTS
DSHP 101KTS 99KTS 57KTS 54KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.3N LONCUR = 66.7W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 12.4N LONM12 = 63.2W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 = 18KT
LATM24 = 11.7N LONM24 = 60.2W
WNDCUR = 105KT RMAXWD = 5NM WNDM12 = 85KT
CENPRS = 959MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 110NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 40NM RD34NW = 110NM

Image

Refresh Grapfic.GFDL is updated to South Texas.
Last edited by cycloneye on Thu Jul 14, 2005 8:13 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#2 Postby Thunder44 » Thu Jul 14, 2005 8:01 pm

They initialize at 105kts. That's about 120mph.
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#3 Postby nolecaster » Thu Jul 14, 2005 8:02 pm

Intensity forecasts do not take it to Cat 4 status at all.......
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#4 Postby Brent » Thu Jul 14, 2005 8:03 pm

The GFDL, BAMM, and LBAR are pointing at Texas now. Plus the GFS earlier.

Brownsville 25.9 N 97.5 W
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#5 Postby Rainband » Thu Jul 14, 2005 8:04 pm

Getting interesting
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#6 Postby jkt21787 » Thu Jul 14, 2005 8:04 pm

nolecaster wrote:Intensity forecasts do not take it to Cat 4 status at all.......

I never have given much credence to those intensity forecasts, they just are so variable one way or another.
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#7 Postby Brent » Thu Jul 14, 2005 8:05 pm

jkt21787 wrote:
nolecaster wrote:Intensity forecasts do not take it to Cat 4 status at all.......

I never have given much credence to those intensity forecasts, they just are so variable one way or another.


I agree.

I will be absolutely stunned if Emily does not become a Cat 4 based on

1. Satellite imagery tonight
2. Warm waters ahead
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#8 Postby rockyman » Thu Jul 14, 2005 8:08 pm

BAMD 27.5/93.1 (!) If I'm reading this right, this is a huge right hand turn toward the upper Texas coast
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#9 Postby nolecaster » Thu Jul 14, 2005 8:11 pm

Good points, I was just wondering how models a day ago or so were actually taking it a little stronger than they are now....
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#10 Postby rockyman » Thu Jul 14, 2005 8:13 pm

BAMD is taking the storm across the western tip of Cuba (!)...whaddup with that?
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#11 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 14, 2005 8:14 pm

rockyman wrote:BAMD is taking the storm across the western tip of Cuba (!)...whaddup with that?


Yes grapfic updated and yes thru the YC .
Last edited by cycloneye on Thu Jul 14, 2005 8:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#12 Postby Rainband » Thu Jul 14, 2005 8:14 pm

rockyman wrote:BAMD is taking the storm across the western tip of Cuba (!)...whaddup with that?
the high is forecast to build westward..yet that model is sensing a weakness!??
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#13 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jul 14, 2005 8:15 pm

I think the models are starting to pick up a weakness. In believe me by the time Emily moves into the Western Caribbean with some of the warmest waters of the whole basin to work with. Don't be surprized to see a monster moving right through the Yucatan channel heading for soutnern or central Texas.
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#14 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jul 14, 2005 8:16 pm

We have been seeing a trend in the last hours with a more northward movement, thereafter, if you live in South Texas, please keep monitoring this powerful system.
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#15 Postby Rainband » Thu Jul 14, 2005 8:16 pm

Hope not..they need rain but not like this.
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#16 Postby cajungal » Thu Jul 14, 2005 8:17 pm

It is not that much further north. And it is still a good ways away. Just pay attention if you live anywhere on the Texas or SW Louisiana coastline.
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#17 Postby Rainband » Thu Jul 14, 2005 8:18 pm

cajungal wrote:It is not that much further north. And it is still a good ways away. Just pay attention if you live anywhere on the Texas or SW Louisiana coastline.
I wouldn't go as far as LA yet :lol:
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#18 Postby cajungal » Thu Jul 14, 2005 8:20 pm

Rainband wrote:
cajungal wrote:It is not that much further north. And it is still a good ways away. Just pay attention if you live anywhere on the Texas or SW Louisiana coastline.
I wouldn't go as far as LA yet :lol:
No, you are right, I don't think it will go that far east or north. But, it does not hurt to pay attention anyway. Nothing is over til the fat lady sings.
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#19 Postby StormWarning1 » Thu Jul 14, 2005 8:22 pm

The graphic for the GFDL is for the 18z run. The 2345z graphic will not update until about 1 hour after the 00z globals are run, or roughly 0400z.

The 2345z GFDL uses the 00z global data set, so it will run after the globals.
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#20 Postby canegrl04 » Thu Jul 14, 2005 8:22 pm

If Em goes thru the YC shes all clear to get as strong as she wants without impedment :eek:
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