Dvorak #s: Emily 6.0, 115 knots, Cat. 4

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HURAKAN
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Dvorak #s: Emily 6.0, 115 knots, Cat. 4

#1 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jul 14, 2005 7:22 pm

14/2345 UTC 13.4N 66.6W T6.0/6.0 EMILY -- Atlantic Ocean

Now let see what the RECON finds.
Last edited by HURAKAN on Thu Jul 14, 2005 7:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#2 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jul 14, 2005 7:23 pm

I agree with that....
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#3 Postby WeatherEmperor » Thu Jul 14, 2005 7:23 pm

gettin very intense.

<RICKY>
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#4 Postby Sanibel » Thu Jul 14, 2005 7:25 pm

Not surprising you posted this at the same time I posted a topic about it going buzzsaw...
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#5 Postby Cape Verde » Thu Jul 14, 2005 7:28 pm

Okay, what the heck are Dvorak numbers?
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#6 Postby Scorpion » Thu Jul 14, 2005 7:29 pm

Looks like a Cat 4 to me.
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#7 Postby Thunder44 » Thu Jul 14, 2005 7:30 pm

With a pressure of 962mb, that maybe a little too high, but we'll see what recon finds.
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#8 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 14, 2005 7:31 pm

Cape Verde wrote:Okay, what the heck are Dvorak numbers?


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/dvorak.html

At link above it is all explained.
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#9 Postby Cape Verde » Thu Jul 14, 2005 7:33 pm

cycloneye wrote:
At link above it is all explained.
<P>Wow, and it was actually understandable!
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gkrangers

#10 Postby gkrangers » Thu Jul 14, 2005 7:35 pm

T numbers are pure estimates.

Wait till recon finds winds supporting an increase in intensity.
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#11 Postby InimanaChoogamaga » Thu Jul 14, 2005 7:36 pm

She's sure a little thing. There's my detailed meteorological analysis for the day :P
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#12 Postby GalvestonDuck » Thu Jul 14, 2005 7:37 pm

InimanaChoogamaga wrote:She's sure a little thing. There's my detailed meteorological analysis for the day :P


You forgot the disclaimer. :wink: :lol: :)
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#13 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Jul 14, 2005 7:38 pm

looking at the IR it looks like the eye has filled in, i dont know if its so small i cant see it anymore, if it has im pretty sure its temporary, but could mean shes may have leveled off on intensity for the time being anyway
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#14 Postby Hyperstorm » Thu Jul 14, 2005 7:39 pm

Thunder44 wrote:With a pressure of 962mb, that maybe a little too high, but we'll see what recon finds.


This is the kind of system that will be a category 4 with a pressure in the 950s. Hurricanes that are this small have higher maximum sustained winds with higher minimum central pressures than hurricanes that are larger in size.

Think small, think Iris...
Last edited by Hyperstorm on Thu Jul 14, 2005 7:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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gkrangers

#15 Postby gkrangers » Thu Jul 14, 2005 7:39 pm

ivanhater wrote:looking at the IR it looks like the eye has filled in, i dont know if its so small i cant see it anymore, if it has im pretty sure its temporary, but could mean shes may have leveled off on intensity for the time being anyway
It could also be a sign of..dare I say..an ERC and the beginning of an intensification phase.

If an ERC happens, recon will report it.
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#16 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jul 14, 2005 7:39 pm

This shows that a system can have a 6.0/6.0 but only have winds supported by recon of 5.0/5.0. Many a system out over the open Atlantic is normally put by the T number. Which tells me many of those systems might be in fact to strong or weak.
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#17 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Jul 14, 2005 7:40 pm

ahh could be, she looks like shes gonna be a monster
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#18 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jul 14, 2005 7:42 pm

Not to scare anyone, but could we get a Cat. 5 from Emily? It think so.
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#19 Postby Sanibel » Thu Jul 14, 2005 7:44 pm

Probably an intensification spasm where the small eye whips around so fast in a trochoid wobble that it curls and no longer goes in a cylinder down to the surface. Any time now I expect a slightly bigger, firmer, stable eye and thicker buzzsaw...
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#20 Postby mahicks » Thu Jul 14, 2005 7:45 pm

InimanaChoogamaga wrote:She's sure a little thing. There's my detailed meteorological analysis for the day :P



I agree, and I know this is probably the stupidest "newbie" question of all...But what is the chances, or what would cause her to grow in size? What kind of patterns can I look for?
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