Invest 99L Becoming better organized

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

A close up satellite has been placed on top of it...It shows a elongated LLC from southwest to northeast this afternoon. In which is becoming beter oreganized. Convection has increased near or over it over the past 6 hours. The shear maps show that it has a upper level high over it. With decrease in over all shear of 5 to 10 knots. To the north/east of it is 30 knot shear...The ship model brings it to 60 knots over the next 5 days...All hurricane models turn it out to sea...

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

Comments welcome

[HURAKAN]

In this one it also looks better organized.

[cycloneye]

Agree it looks better but still some shear is in the area aswell some dry air but overall comparing this morning in which looked pathetic hours later it has improved.

[wlfpack81]

Yea GFS for the last few runs has turned this thing out to sea and I believe the Oz UKMET from the last night did the same. Haven't really checked out the other models in relation to 99. Been focused on Emily too much LOL.

[EDR1222]

Hopefully it will get going. Even though it looks like a fish, it will still be fun to track.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I went to see it to become the F storm so this year will make hisory. In plus it will most "likely" Be a fish.

The LLC over the last few frames has become more oreganized. But the convection is mostly to the northeast. Still I expect once the nhc gets the quickscats(If I'm right) Then a upgrade maybe in the cards.

[jabber]

Much better presentation then today. Not so sure about being a fish. Models seem to do this in this area. We will see

[HURAKAN]

Will the next Dvorak numbers increase? I think so.

[Hyperstorm]

I haven't been paying much attention to 99L since yesterday, but it appears that this system went through some changes from yesterday to today.

Yesterday, the system was over relatively cooler waters which caused the LLC to dissipate and convection to become disorganized. Today, once it got past 40W, convection regenerated over warmer waters. It now appears to have redeveloped a new LLC, which does not appear to be closed, but getting close to it. UL winds have become less favorable for development due to the outflow from Emily intereacting with it. That's why development has halted. Since development was halted during the past 24 hours, the system didn't become a tropical depression as I expected today.

However, the system is currently moving over warmer waters and UL winds are going to be favorable enough for development (it will move in tandem to the SWesterlies). It will be a VERY slow developmental progress for this system due to the above mentioned factors. That being said, the system has a good potential for development as it moves WNW-NW over warmer waters and a tropical depression might form within 48 hours, that is by Saturday.

As we look toward the east, the STRONG tropical low which exited the coast of Africa yesterday, has lost much of its convection as expected due to the cooler waters near the higher latitude it's at. As I said earlier, once it moves west of 40W, it will have to be monitored for potential development down the road...

[HURAKAN]

Let me ask the pros and professional mets in this forum, could 99L repeat what Danny, 2003, did? Form at that high latitute. Are right now conditiones favorable for development?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It will likey pull something like Danny of 2003...I'm expecting it to once over the warmer water near 50 west 25 north.

[WeatherEmperor]

I haven't been paying much attention to 99L since yesterday, but it appears that this system went through some changes from yesterday to today.

Yesterday, the system was over relatively cooler waters which caused the LLC to dissipate and convection to become disorganized. Today, once it got past 40W, convection regenerated over warmer waters. It now appears to have redeveloped a new LLC, which does not appear to be closed, but getting close to it. UL winds have become less favorable for development due to the outflow from Emily intereacting with it. That's why development has halted. Since development was halted during the past 24 hours, the system didn't become a tropical depression as I expected today.

However, the system is currently moving over warmer waters and UL winds are going to be favorable enough for development (it will move in tandem to the SWesterlies). It will be a VERY slow developmental progress for this system due to the above mentioned factors. That being said, the system has a good potential for development as it moves WNW-NW over warmer waters and a tropical depression might form within 48 hours, that is by Saturday.

As we look toward the east, the STRONG tropical low which exited the coast of Africa yesterday, has lost much of its convection as expected due to the cooler waters near the higher latitude it's at. As I said earlier, once it moves west of 40W, it will have to be monitored for potential development down the road...

Tried to make that sound like an NHC discussion by the amount of detail didnt ya?

<RICKY>

[jlauderdal]

I haven't been paying much attention to 99L since yesterday, but it appears that this system went through some changes from yesterday to today.

Yesterday, the system was over relatively cooler waters which caused the LLC to dissipate and convection to become disorganized. Today, once it got past 40W, convection regenerated over warmer waters. It now appears to have redeveloped a new LLC, which does not appear to be closed, but getting close to it. UL winds have become less favorable for development due to the outflow from Emily intereacting with it. That's why development has halted. Since development was halted during the past 24 hours, the system didn't become a tropical depression as I expected today.

However, the system is currently moving over warmer waters and UL winds are going to be favorable enough for development (it will move in tandem to the SWesterlies). It will be a VERY slow developmental progress for this system due to the above mentioned factors. That being said, the system has a good potential for development as it moves WNW-NW over warmer waters and a tropical depression might form within 48 hours, that is by Saturday.

As we look toward the east, the STRONG tropical low which exited the coast of Africa yesterday, has lost much of its convection as expected due to the cooler waters near the higher latitude it's at. As I said earlier, once it moves west of 40W, it will have to be monitored for potential development down the road...

Tried to make that sound like an NHC discussion by the amount of detail didnt ya?

<RICKY>

well its alot better then this from our friends at channel 7, this would be from our chief met who replaced kamal

Discussion:
Hello everyone.... Expect a ripple in the atmosphere to move over us from the Bahamas on Friday and bring us some late afternoon thunderstorms. In meteorological terms, its called an upper short wave. It should drag moisture from the Atlantic and bring it over South Florida, where along with the heating of the day, it should spark up some storms.

The temperatures will be typical for this time of year, normal for Miami is 91 and for Ft. Lauderdale 90.

We are also tracking Hurricane Emily, the second major storm of the young 2005 season. It is forecast to intensify to a cat four on Friday and race on close to Jamaica by Saturday Morning.

High pressure in the Atlantic is pushing Emily West/Northwest
and should keep it on this track through the weekend.

Stay with Channel 7 as we chart the progress of this tropical storm. Otherwise, typical summer weather around South Florida. Steamy sunshine, plenty of heat and humidity, and occasional mainly afternoon and evening storms.

Phil Ferro
Chief Meteorologist
7 Weather

[WeatherEmperor]

I haven't been paying much attention to 99L since yesterday, but it appears that this system went through some changes from yesterday to today.

Yesterday, the system was over relatively cooler waters which caused the LLC to dissipate and convection to become disorganized. Today, once it got past 40W, convection regenerated over warmer waters. It now appears to have redeveloped a new LLC, which does not appear to be closed, but getting close to it. UL winds have become less favorable for development due to the outflow from Emily intereacting with it. That's why development has halted. Since development was halted during the past 24 hours, the system didn't become a tropical depression as I expected today.

However, the system is currently moving over warmer waters and UL winds are going to be favorable enough for development (it will move in tandem to the SWesterlies). It will be a VERY slow developmental progress for this system due to the above mentioned factors. That being said, the system has a good potential for development as it moves WNW-NW over warmer waters and a tropical depression might form within 48 hours, that is by Saturday.

As we look toward the east, the STRONG tropical low which exited the coast of Africa yesterday, has lost much of its convection as expected due to the cooler waters near the higher latitude it's at. As I said earlier, once it moves west of 40W, it will have to be monitored for potential development down the road...

Tried to make that sound like an NHC discussion by the amount of detail didnt ya?

<RICKY>

well its alot better then this from our friends at channel 7, this would be from our chief met who replaced kamal

Discussion:
Hello everyone.... Expect a ripple in the atmosphere to move over us from the Bahamas on Friday and bring us some late afternoon thunderstorms. In meteorological terms, its called an upper short wave. It should drag moisture from the Atlantic and bring it over South Florida, where along with the heating of the day, it should spark up some storms.

The temperatures will be typical for this time of year, normal for Miami is 91 and for Ft. Lauderdale 90.

We are also tracking Hurricane Emily, the second major storm of the young 2005 season. It is forecast to intensify to a cat four on Friday and race on close to Jamaica by Saturday Morning.

High pressure in the Atlantic is pushing Emily West/Northwest
and should keep it on this track through the weekend.

Stay with Channel 7 as we chart the progress of this tropical storm. Otherwise, typical summer weather around South Florida. Steamy sunshine, plenty of heat and humidity, and occasional mainly afternoon and evening storms.

Phil Ferro
Chief Meteorologist
7 Weather

LOL! I know. Ch7 is laughable at best.

<RICKY>

[cycloneye]

14/2345 UTC 14.9N 42.7W TOO WEAK 99 -- Atlantic Ocean


No so fast guys.Still too weak according to dvorak SSD sat estimates.

[WeatherEmperor]

14/2345 UTC 14.9N 42.7W TOO WEAK 99 -- Atlantic Ocean


No so fast guys.Still too weak according to dvorak SSD sat estimates.

Yeah I know. Just trying to create a little spark.

<RICKY>

[Hyperstorm]

I haven't been paying much attention to 99L since yesterday, but it appears that this system went through some changes from yesterday to today.

Yesterday, the system was over relatively cooler waters which caused the LLC to dissipate and convection to become disorganized. Today, once it got past 40W, convection regenerated over warmer waters. It now appears to have redeveloped a new LLC, which does not appear to be closed, but getting close to it. UL winds have become less favorable for development due to the outflow from Emily intereacting with it. That's why development has halted. Since development was halted during the past 24 hours, the system didn't become a tropical depression as I expected today.

However, the system is currently moving over warmer waters and UL winds are going to be favorable enough for development (it will move in tandem to the SWesterlies). It will be a VERY slow developmental progress for this system due to the above mentioned factors. That being said, the system has a good potential for development as it moves WNW-NW over warmer waters and a tropical depression might form within 48 hours, that is by Saturday.

As we look toward the east, the STRONG tropical low which exited the coast of Africa yesterday, has lost much of its convection as expected due to the cooler waters near the higher latitude it's at. As I said earlier, once it moves west of 40W, it will have to be monitored for potential development down the road...

Tried to make that sound like an NHC discussion by the amount of detail didnt ya?

<RICKY>

Oh, I'm sorry if you got confused. It wasn't meant to be written like that. I always like to give a fairly detailed explanation of what I think it's happening in NON-technical terms. That way, people will understand it better.

[Hyperstorm]

14/2345 UTC 14.9N 42.7W TOO WEAK 99 -- Atlantic Ocean


No so fast guys.Still too weak according to dvorak SSD sat estimates.

Yes, Cycloneye...TOO WEAK because the LLC doesn't appear to be closed, which means there is not a TRUE center for them to track. Once we see a trackable CLOSED LLC, they will likely give it numbers. The deep convection is still disorganized and development will be slow, but gradual.

It's got a head start already with it being over warmer waters and convection increasing since yesterday.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looking at the latest satellite shows that the LLC has become more defined....But most of the convection is on the northeast side....

[WeatherEmperor]

lol i was just playing around Hyperstorm.

<RICKY>