H Emily Recon Reports

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clfenwi
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#21 Postby clfenwi » Thu Jul 14, 2005 6:17 pm

OK, westward movement has stopped, looks like a northwest to southeast pass through the eye...

2310 1424N 06822W 03048 0143 057 036 094 040 037 03243 0000000000
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#22 Postby Hyperstorm » Thu Jul 14, 2005 6:18 pm

Latest satellite images indicate that Emily is rapidly strengthening this afternoon. A ring of VERY cold cloud tops has positioned itself rather symmetrically around the eye. If my current thinking is correct, pressure should have dropped another 10-15 mb from the last vortex message which was 974 mb. Winds should be up there near 110-115 kts. Very powerful little system...


[EDIT: RE-ADJUST PRESSURE DROP DUE TO AN ERROR IN INFORMATION]
Last edited by Hyperstorm on Thu Jul 14, 2005 6:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#23 Postby TampaFl » Thu Jul 14, 2005 6:19 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Image

EVIL EMILY CONTINUES TO GET MORE DANGEROUS. BUT AFTERALL, BAD GIRLS LOOK GOOD!


:wanna: :wink: :wink:
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#24 Postby Brent » Thu Jul 14, 2005 6:24 pm

jkt21787 wrote:Folks, we could find a cat 4 soon...


I think she's already there... just WOW. Yesterday morning she looked so sick and now this.
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#25 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jul 14, 2005 6:25 pm

TampaFl wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:Image

EVIL EMILY CONTINUES TO GET MORE DANGEROUS. BUT AFTERALL, BAD GIRLS LOOK GOOD!


:wanna: :wink: :wink:



I can't rule out that date as of yet.... :wink:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
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#26 Postby clfenwi » Thu Jul 14, 2005 6:27 pm

To referesh everyone's memories, last recon pressure ob was 974 millibars at 1715Z...
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#27 Postby clfenwi » Thu Jul 14, 2005 6:35 pm

Max flight level wind ob between 2320-2330Z: 44 knots... headed southeast to the eye...

2328 1349N 06728W 03047 0121 048 044 096 044 044 03221 0000000000
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#28 Postby Andy_L » Thu Jul 14, 2005 6:38 pm

not looking like they are going to get a fix before the 8pm advisory :(
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#29 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jul 14, 2005 6:39 pm

I'm hoping the nhc holds off on the 8pm Advisorie intill a fix.
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#30 Postby Brent » Thu Jul 14, 2005 6:41 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I'm hoping the nhc holds off on the 8pm Advisorie intill a fix.


What if it's AFTER 8pm??? :wink:
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#31 Postby Andy_L » Thu Jul 14, 2005 6:41 pm

don't think they delay do they? would think they would issue normally at 8pm and then issue a special advisory if recon supported that
Last edited by Andy_L on Thu Jul 14, 2005 6:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#32 Postby Hyperstorm » Thu Jul 14, 2005 6:42 pm

clfenwi wrote:To referesh everyone's memories, last recon pressure ob was 974 millibars at 1715Z...


Thanks for reminding me. For some reason, it slipped my mind that the 968 mb pressure reading was an estimated reading. The 5-10 mb pressure drop from last vortex message (974mb), would have to be changed to a 10-15 mb pressure drop somewhere around 960 mb.

I will edit my previous post...
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#33 Postby Brent » Thu Jul 14, 2005 6:43 pm

Andy_L wrote:don't think they delay do that? would think they would issue normally at 8pm and then issue a special advisory if recon supported that


Most likely. They might not issue the advisory til right at 8pm, but they aren't going to wait til 8:15 or 8:30 for recon.

Last Wednesday if ya'll remember at 5pm Dennis was still a TS, but less than an hour later recon confirmed it to be a hurricane.
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#34 Postby clfenwi » Thu Jul 14, 2005 6:44 pm

Max flight level wind between 2330-2340Z: 59 knots...

2338. 1332N 06658W 03049 0080 043 058 084 076 059 03181 0000000000
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#35 Postby Thunder44 » Thu Jul 14, 2005 6:47 pm

They are probably writing the advisory up right now.
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#36 Postby clfenwi » Thu Jul 14, 2005 6:54 pm

vortex rsn... nw quad wind 101 knots flight level..

2344. 1323N 06641W 03037 5143 041 096 158 076 101 02945 0000000000
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#37 Postby Brent » Thu Jul 14, 2005 6:55 pm

That's pretty strong for the NW quadrant... this defintely is stronger than 100 kt IMO.
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#38 Postby Scorpion » Thu Jul 14, 2005 6:56 pm

Oh my god shes bombing. I take back anything said before.
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#39 Postby StormWarning1 » Thu Jul 14, 2005 6:57 pm

Satellite presentation says sub 965. Just a guess
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#40 Postby Brent » Thu Jul 14, 2005 6:58 pm

StormWarning1 wrote:Satellite presentation says sub 965. Just a guess


Probably a lot lower than that...
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