18Z GFS....Central TX Coast....

[Stratosphere747]

Well, untill I see any kind of shift from thw NHC, it still looks like Mexico with the Brownsville area as a possibility.

I remember how many shifts that the models kept having with Dennis, yet the NHC's track hardly budged.

[Anonymous]

Texas should not at all let their guard down yet.

[Brent]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
230 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2005

.DISCUSSION...15 KNOT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE MIXED OUT MUCH OF
THE SEA BREEZE FRONT SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY AND WILL LIKELY HAVE THE
SAME EFFECT TOMORROW. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND PRODUCE
MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS. WINDS MAY BE LIGHT ENOUGH ON
SATURDAY FOR A SEA BREEZE FRONT TO DEVELOP AND GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HURRICANE EMILY IS ON TRACK TO MOVE
THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY MONDAY OF NEXT
WEEK...ARRIVING ALONG THE MEXICAN WEST GULF COAST ON FORECAST DAY
SIX OR SO. MOST COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ABOUT THE
TRACK OF EMILY AT LEAST UNTIL IT REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ANY
IMPACTS ON THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR NORTH
THE HURRICANE MAKES LANDFALL...AND THE POINT OF LANDFALL IS OPEN TO
MUCH SPECULATION AT THIS TIME.

[dixiebreeze]

If Derecho says it's so -- I believe it.

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
335 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2005


MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH THE NHC/HPC TRACKS PROG
HURRICANE EMILY ONTO THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST (BETWEEN 50 AND 150
MILES TO THE NORTH OF TAMPICO) ON WED. NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WINDS ATTM GIVEN THIS SOUTHERLY TRACK. HOWEVER...BLV WE
WL HAVE AN INCREASE IN SWELLS BEGINNING AS EARLY AS TUE AND
CONTINUING INTO THU. WL BE SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW AND GO
WITH 4-6 FT SEAS. HOWEVER...THIS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED AS THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FCST INCREASES. BLV WE WL SEE AN INCREASED
CHC FOR RAINFALL ON WED AND ESPECIALLY THU AS DEEP TROPICAL SELY
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF EMILY ENVELOPS THE CWA. FOR NOW WL ONLY GO
WITH CHC POPS FOR WED AND THU. IF EMILY TRACKS FURTHER NORTH THAN
EXPECTED...THEN WE MAY NEED TO GO WITH LKLY OR EVEN CAT POPS FOR
LATE WED AND THU.

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
300 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2005

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER AFTERNOON WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER HOUSTON METRO AREA.
HARRIS COUNTY ALERT GUAGES HAVE RECORDED AS MUCH AS 4 INCH PER
HOUR RAINFALL RATES. WITH MAX HEATING AND PWS UP TO 2.3 INCHES
NOT A SURPRISE. EXPECT STORM TOTAL TO REACH 4 TO 6 INCHES UNDER
AREA OF MCS WHICH LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO THE METRO AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. MCS FORECAST TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO
REMNANT UNSTABLE AIR THEN WEAKEN AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING AND
COOLER SEABREEZE AIR COMES INTO PLAY. OTHER SHORT TERM CONCERN IS
CONVECTION NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED THIS EVENING FOR OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES AS THIS
AREA IS MOVING EAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SHORT WAVE OVER
NORTHWEST TEXAS.

TOMORROW AND SATURDAY SHOULD CONTINUE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS FOR
CONVECTION AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AMPLE MOISTURE AND
DAYTIME HEATING ALL WORK IN FAVOR OF THUNDERSTORMS.

MODELS FORECAST SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BUILD IN FROM THE EAST WHICH
MAY ACT TO STABILIZE OUR ATMOSPHERE A BIT. WILL KEEP LOWER POPS
AFTER SATURDAY ACCORDINGLY.

FORECAST TRACK OF EMILY BRING THE HURRICANE SOUTH OF OUR AREA
TUESDAY AND WOULD EXPECT SUBSIDENCE AND HOTTER MAX TEMPS TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY.

[BayouVenteux]

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1886/index.html

Your post must be in reference to one of the historic Texas hurricanes...

From the Corpus Christi NWS Tropical Page
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/crp/docs/resear ... 886-5.html

The Indianola Hurricane of 1886

The town of Indianola, rebuilt from the terrible hurricane of 1875, once again prospered as the major seaport of Texas. No person thought the destruction of 1875 could be repeated when 75% of the town was lost. Instead, the entire town was lost.

A devastating hurricane approached the area during the night of August 19th, 1886. By morning, winds were 72 mph and increasing. People began to gather in the Signal Station for protection from the increasing storm. The storm surge began to make the building unstable and people began to flee into the streets, fearing they would die in the crumbling building. The weather observer, I.A. Reed, decided to secure the records and reset the instruments in the case that he or the building did not survive the hurricane. While resetting the instrumentation, the building failed and trapped Reed and a doctor inside.

Fuel lamps in the building soon ignited the building despite the rain of the storm. The fire quickly spread, forcing people out of the buildings in town and into the storm. Many were swept away in the water of the storm as the city was burned and battered by the hurricane. Historical texts report at least 46 people died in the hurricane.

Little is known about this storm because so little survived the devastation. Every building was a loss in the city. County seat responsibilities were transfered to Port Lavaca, where they remain today. County records were lost. The town was never rebuilt as trade found other routes such as Galveston.

San Antonio reported a pressure of 29.03 inches and winds of 80 mph as the decaying stormed passed. Not all weather caused by the hurricane was bad. Corpus Christi reported a drought breaking rain of 6" and the strong NW wind caused the bays to receed for two hours.

[clfenwi]

NOGAPS link:
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/mywxmap/logi ... name=guest

and click on 'Tropical Atlantic'

I should revise my comment on the 'Rock of Gibraltar' nature of NOGAPS with Emily... that is only from looking at 00/12 runs, not the in-between ones. I tend to not pay attention to those unless they are ingesting additional obs (from the Gulfstream IV and special radiosonde launches from NWS offices).

[Brent]

If Derecho says it's so -- I believe it.

I'm going to wait for consistency and/or other models showing it. It was such a dramatic shift I want to throw it out.

I will be shocked as of now if it goes that far north... Brownsville is still possible, but not way up the coast.

[canegrl04]

Local mets in Dallas saying Brownsville to Corpus Christi need to keep an eye on Emily

[Thunder44]

GFS flip-flop how unusual is that?

[Stratosphere747]

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1886/index.html

Your post must be in reference to one of the historic Texas hurricanes...

From the Corpus Christi NWS Tropical Page
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/crp/docs/resear ... 886-5.html

The Indianola Hurricane of 1886

The town of Indianola, rebuilt from the terrible hurricane of 1875, once again prospered as the major seaport of Texas. No person thought the destruction of 1875 could be repeated when 75% of the town was lost. Instead, the entire town was lost.

A devastating hurricane approached the area during the night of August 19th, 1886. By morning, winds were 72 mph and increasing. People began to gather in the Signal Station for protection from the increasing storm. The storm surge began to make the building unstable and people began to flee into the streets, fearing they would die in the crumbling building. The weather observer, I.A. Reed, decided to secure the records and reset the instruments in the case that he or the building did not survive the hurricane. While resetting the instrumentation, the building failed and trapped Reed and a doctor inside.

Fuel lamps in the building soon ignited the building despite the rain of the storm. The fire quickly spread, forcing people out of the buildings in town and into the storm. Many were swept away in the water of the storm as the city was burned and battered by the hurricane. Historical texts report at least 46 people died in the hurricane.

Little is known about this storm because so little survived the devastation. Every building was a loss in the city. County seat responsibilities were transfered to Port Lavaca, where they remain today. County records were lost. The town was never rebuilt as trade found other routes such as Galveston.

San Antonio reported a pressure of 29.03 inches and winds of 80 mph as the decaying stormed passed. Not all weather caused by the hurricane was bad. Corpus Christi reported a drought breaking rain of 6" and the strong NW wind caused the bays to receed for two hours.

If not for the 1900 Galveston event, this would be the most significant hurricane that ever hit Texas. If fact IMO it is equal historically and what it changed.

In no way do I try and lessen the loss of life that occurred in Galveston....

Indianola was the 2nd largest port next to Galveston, and if not for the 75 cane it may have even been bigger. Not to mention after Hurdat analysis that the 86 event was the only cat5 to hit Texas.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

So if it was a cat5 that would make 4 cat5s to have hit the united states on records.

1886
1935 labar day hurricane
Camille
Andrew

[Huckster]

Technically, it was a cat. 4, even after the reanlysis, but it was right on the line at 135 kts/155 mph. You can't get any closer to a cat. 5 than that. Here's a link to the file with this storm's specifics...

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/eas ... htm#1886_5

[Huckster]

[Stratosphere747]

Technically, it was a cat. 4, even after the reanlysis, but it was right on the line at 135 kts/155 mph. You can't get any closer to a cat. 5 than that. Here's a link to the file with this storm's specifics...

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/eas ... htm#1886_5

Correct Huckster....

I know I've read somewhere that it is considered a cat5, but even as much as I love the history of the Indianola canes, upgrading a storm from 1886 is hard..

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

With how limited the data was back then. I would not be at all surpized if it was a cat5.

[clfenwi]

Technically, it was a cat. 4, even after the reanlysis, but it was right on the line at 135 kts/155 mph. You can't get any closer to a cat. 5 than that. Here's a link to the file with this storm's specifics...

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/eas ... htm#1886_5

Correct Huckster....

I know I've read somewhere that it is considered a cat5, but even as much as I love the history of the Indianola canes, upgrading a storm from 1886 is hard..

Yeah, recon was a pain in the butt back then...ever try to fly a hot air baloon into a hurricane????