18Z GFS....Central TX Coast....

[Derecho]

18Z NGP through 72 hours is significantly N of the 12Z Track, but the rest of it isn't out....

[hicksta]

link

[ericinmia]

link

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[margaritabeach]

[Ivanhater]

doesnt the other models always follow the gfs?

[Derecho]

doesnt the other models always follow the gfs?

Not really.

[Stratosphere747]

18Z NGP through 72 hours is significantly N of the 12Z Track, but the rest of it isn't out....

Derecho,

Was this the model that was having huge shifts with Dennis?

[jkt21787]

doesnt the other models always follow the gfs?

Not really.

Actually, yes, the tropical model suite (LBAR, BAMM, BAMD) will usually trend with the GFS. So in all likelyhood they will be further north on the next run, although probably not to central TX.

[margaritabeach]

Isn't the GFS similiar now to what Derek's MM5 run was showing earlier today?

[deltadog03]

hmmm...well, we will have to see what future runs bring...interesting though....this is what FWD and norman have been saying for the past couple of days

[clfenwi]

18Z NGP through 72 hours is significantly N of the 12Z Track, but the rest of it isn't out....

Derecho,

Was this the model that was having huge shifts with Dennis?

NOGAPS had been a Rock of Gibraltar wrt its forecast track of Emily...been saying Yucatan since Tuesday morning...

[Derecho]

doesnt the other models always follow the gfs?

Not really.

Actually, yes, the tropical model suite (LBAR, BAMM, BAMD) will usually trend with the GFS. So in all likelyhood they will be further north on the next run, although probably not to central TX.

That's because the Tropical model suite literally uses the GFS as it's background field; they're not independent models. They're the BAMD overlay of the GFS, etc.

[Stratosphere747]

18Z NGP through 72 hours is significantly N of the 12Z Track, but the rest of it isn't out....

Derecho,

Was this the model that was having huge shifts with Dennis?

NOGAPS had been a Rock of Gibraltar wrt its forecast track of Emily...been saying Yucatan since Tuesday morning...

I'm just wondering about the validity of this model Clf...

I thought this was the one that kept shifting Dennis from the EC of Fla to NO?

[clfenwi]

18Z NGP through 72 hours is significantly N of the 12Z Track, but the rest of it isn't out....

Derecho,

Was this the model that was having huge shifts with Dennis?

NOGAPS had been a Rock of Gibraltar wrt its forecast track of Emily...been saying Yucatan since Tuesday morning...

I'm just wondering about the validity of this model Clf...

I thought this was the one that kept shifting Dennis from the EC of Fla to NO?

Negs, that was the Canadian...

and keeping in mind that past history is no sure indicator of future performance, remember this from an early Emily discussion...

IT IS PERHAPS
OF INTEREST TO NOTE THAT THE NOGAPS...WHICH HAD ONLY A SO-SO YEAR
LAST YEAR...IS CURRENTLY THE BEST PERFORMING ATLANTIC TRACK MODEL
SO FAR IN 2005...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...WHICH WON HANDS DOWN
LAST YEAR...IS STRUGGLING A BIT.

[deltadog03]

18Z NGP through 72 hours is significantly N of the 12Z Track, but the rest of it isn't out....

Derecho,

Was this the model that was having huge shifts with Dennis?

NOGAPS had been a Rock of Gibraltar wrt its forecast track of Emily...been saying Yucatan since Tuesday morning...

I'm just wondering about the validity of this model Clf...

I thought this was the one that kept shifting Dennis from the EC of Fla to NO?

Negs, that was the Canadian...

NGP?? nogaps??

[jkt21787]

I have a hard time believing such a drastic shift, not only are we dealing with the worst run cycle of the GFS, but it seems way overboard with the s/w trough digging, which is completely different than every other run of the GFS (including its members) to other latest model runs.

I just don't believe it right now. I'd wait for 00z before thinking anything different than what every model out there is saying right now, Northern Yucatan then into Mexico.

Doesn't mean Texans shouldn't be watching it though.

[jasons2k]

[jkt21787]

doesnt the other models always follow the gfs?

Not really.

Actually, yes, the tropical model suite (LBAR, BAMM, BAMD) will usually trend with the GFS. So in all likelyhood they will be further north on the next run, although probably not to central TX.

That's because the Tropical model suite literally uses the GFS as it's background field; they're not independent models. They're the BAMD overlay of the GFS, etc.

Yes, thats exactly what I mean. They will trend with GFS since its used as a background, but don't expect them to go to central Texas tonight.

[HouTXmetro]

Wow, it shows the High backing off

[deltadog03]

yeah, i noticed that too