Is Emily an open and shut case?

#41 Postby **deltadog03** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 4:00 pm

not really, when you think about it

rockyman · #42 Postby **rockyman** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 4:01 pm

And Charley (eventual landfall was not even in the cone):

Rainband · #43 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 4:02 pm

rockyman wrote:And Charley (eventual landfall was not even in the cone):

when it made landfall it was in the cone. *sigh* I will never understand why people will try and find fault with the experts.

dwg71 · #44 Postby **dwg71** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 4:03 pm

It was real close though...

Website · #45 Postby **Brent** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 4:05 pm

Rainband wrote:Way different setup with Ivan

Oh and don't forget poor Grenada... weren't even expecting to get over TS force winds in squalls and they got a direct hit from a Cat 3. I'm sorry, I like the NHC too, but they did a HORRIBLE job with Ivan. It was left of their forecast track it's entire life.

rockyman · #46 Postby **rockyman** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 4:05 pm

Rainband...I'm not trying to find fault with the experts...I'm just demonstrating that the new 5 day forecasts are not that reliable...and even being "outside" the cone is no guarantee. I think the NHC did a fantastic job with both Ivan and Charley.

Rainband · #47 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 4:05 pm

rockyman wrote:Rainband...I'm not trying to find fault with the experts...I'm just demonstrating that the new 5 day forecasts are not that reliable...and even being "outside" the cone is no guarantee. I think the NHC did a fantastic job with both Ivan and Charley.

Ok gotcha. Lately though the five day has been close. :wink:

#48 Postby **jasons2k** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 4:08 pm

Even the NHC has a reminder/disclaimer in their own discussions:

"USERS ARE REMINDED THAT AVERAGE 5-DAY TRACK ERRORS
EXCEED 300 NMI."

Not a slam; just a fact of forecasting so far in advance.

Rainband · #49 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 4:10 pm

I know.

I agree with you guys and Gals. :wink:

I know how fast things change in the tropics. I am just saying. The pattern seems locked in place and something would have to change dramatically for the track to shift much. :wink:

#50 Postby **jasons2k** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 4:13 pm

Rainband wrote:I know. I agree with you guys and Gals. I know how fast things change in the tropics. I am just saying. The pattern seems locked in place and something would have to change dramatically for the track to shift much.

I agree with you Rainband. Let's hope it stays that way

Meso · #51 Postby **Meso** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 4:14 pm

geeez that was scary, I open up the page and see that cone map with Emily still in my head... It was like "OMG :eek:

, that much shifted".. luckily I scrolled down as saw the word Charley

#52 Postby **deltadog03** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 4:16 pm

someone, said earlier that there has NOT been a ridge forecasted to be soooo strong, to actually verify...so, we will see...

rockyman · #53 Postby **rockyman** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 4:20 pm

Meso wrote:geeez that was scary, I open up the page and see that cone map with Emily still in my head... It was like "OMG , that much shifted".. luckily I scrolled down as saw the word Charley

Sorry about that...I realized after I posted the pix that I might cause a few palpitations. It actually might serve a good purpose to scare people from their current states of ease.

southerngale · #54 Postby **southerngale** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 4:49 pm

Like I said in a previous post above, I think the NHC has done a superb job, but sometimes conditions change. This is Cindy less than 3 days from landfall. Forget a 5 day, eventual landfall not even in the 2-3 day cone.

I think the 5 day track for Emily looks good now, but it could easily veer left or right in the next few days, depending on the ridge.

Derecho · #55 Postby **Derecho** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 5:17 pm

18Z GFS and NGP have shifted a decent distance north (angle of track change is subtle but for a 6 day forecast it makes a difference).

hicksta · #56 Postby **hicksta** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 5:21 pm

Derecho · #57 Postby **Derecho** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 5:23 pm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_138m.gif

Rainband · #58 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 7:51 pm

Now it's getting interesting.

#59 Postby **jasons2k** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 8:32 pm

Rainband wrote:Now it's getting interesting.

Yessir - almost a bit too much tonite.

Rainband · #60 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 8:43 pm

jschlitz wrote:
Rainband wrote:Now it's getting interesting.

Yessir - almost a bit too much tonite.

time to watch for a trend :wink:

Is Emily an open and shut case?

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