gkrangers wrote:clfenwi wrote:I can see them going min cat 3 (115 mph)at 5 PM advisory on the justification that satellite appearance has improved (distinct eye on vis sat).
They got burned yesterday afternoon/last night when they held their estimates (although reading the discussion, their analysis (based on the old center) justified them doing so), until the next Recon arrived. It created a bit of a discontinuity that probably didn't exist. There was certainly strengthening going on during the 8 PM/9 PM hours, but it almost certainly begun sooner. I don't think it was all in that tiny window.
They may want to try to smooth things out this time.
Wouldn't surprise me if they go with 115. Satellite is extremely impressive.
And for alicia...Dominican Republic is a country on the island of Hispaniola. Emily poses no immediate threat to land for the next few days.
Statement as of 5:00 PM AST on July 14, 2005
...Emily becomes a dangerous category three hurricane...
At 5 PM AST...2100z...the government of Jamaica has issued a
Hurricane Watch for Jamaica. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane
conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36
hours.
At 5 PM AST...the government of the Dominican Republic has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning from Punta Salinas westward to the Dominican
Republic/Haiti border. The government of Haiti has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning from the Dominican Republic/Haiti border to
Port-au-Prince.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the northern coast of
Venezuela from Pedernales westward to punto fijo...including Isla
Margarita and the offshore islands north of the coast and west of
Cumana.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bonaire...Curacao...and
Aruba.
Interests elsewhere in the central and western Caribbean should
monitor the progress of Emily.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 5 PM AST...2100z...the center of Hurricane Emily was located near
latitude 13.3 north... longitude 65.9 west or about 445 miles...
720 km... southeast of Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic.
Emily is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph
...33 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue for the next
24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds continue to increase and are now near 115
mph...185 km/hr...with higher gusts. Emily is a category three
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale...the second major hurricane
of the season. Some additional strengthening is forecast during
the next 24 hours.
