Is Emily an open and shut case?

[alicia-w]

im pretty sure we were just discussing tracking...everyone knows timing intensity minima/maxima is impossible at this time.

the actual landfall for Dennis was not the same as it was forecasted at 4 days out. on wednesday the 6th, they were saying Louisiana.

[canegrl04]

I remember with Dennis,all the models seemed to point from LA to Florida pan. It wasn't untill about 72 hours before landfall that they were all fixed on MS-Fl pan as the strike point.I would wait a few more days before I started talking strike point as definite

[southerngale]

Cindy was expected to hit Texas 2 days before it hit southeast Louisiana so although the NHC does an exceptional job with forecast tracks, it's not always written in stone.

With that said, I can only assume Emily will hit Mexico as that's how it looks now.

[clfenwi]

im pretty sure we were just discussing tracking...everyone knows timing intensity minima/maxima is impossible at this time.

the actual landfall for Dennis was not the same as it was forecasted at 4 days out. on wednesday the 6th, they were saying Louisiana.

NHC forecast was not Louisana. Looking at this: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/DE ... hics.shtml (and flipping on the five day forecast graphics),, they never went west of Mobile.

As contemporaneous discussions indicate, their forecast was centered on the model consenus... while there were a couple of models suggesting Louisana, the overall consensus was E AL/W FL.

[hicksta]

Cindy was expected to hit Texas 2 days before it hit southeast Lousisiana so although the NHC does an exceptional job with forecast tracks, it's not always written in stone.

With that said, I can only assume Emily will hit Mexico as that's how it looks now.

you cant say that.. so much can change so quickly. anything can happen

[southerngale]

Cindy was expected to hit Texas 2 days before it hit southeast Lousisiana so although the NHC does an exceptional job with forecast tracks, it's not always written in stone.

With that said, I can only assume Emily will hit Mexico as that's how it looks now.

you cant say that.. so much can change so quickly. anything can happen

I can't say what?

[clfenwi]

dennis was pretty open and shut from about 3-4 days in....and even from 5-6 days it only shifted about 200 miles east.

it looks to me that in this case its pretty open and shut considering there is basically 1 dominant steering feature firmly anchored in the GOM.....the only question is how far south.

I have to disagree. Until almost an hour or so out, we were being told it was a cat 3 or 4 storm and then something just happened!!!!

no such thing as open and shut.

Read the Saffir-Simpson definition of cat three:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshs.shtml

Then go here:

http://photos.pensacolanewsjournal.com/

and scroll down and click on the galleries of Navarre and Navarre Beach.

They got hit by a category three storm...

[Rainband]

Cindy was expected to hit Texas 2 days before it hit southeast Lousisiana so although the NHC does an exceptional job with forecast tracks, it's not always written in stone.

With that said, I can only assume Emily will hit Mexico as that's how it looks now.

you cant say that.. so much can change so quickly. anything can happen

There is nothing evident to change the current thinking. The Models look at the present conditions and the future conditions. They are usually very good. Anything is always possible. But probable is the key here

[hicksta]

how can you assume it will hit mexico... although the models point that way. didnt the models point it at cuba a day ago?? it will change.

[Rainband]

how can you assume it will hit mexico... although the models point that way. didnt the models point it at cuba a day ago?? it will change.

they shifted south and as the ridge strengthens and build west they will most likely shift south again. BTW welcome to S2K where are you from??

[alicia-w]

dennis was pretty open and shut from about 3-4 days in....and even from 5-6 days it only shifted about 200 miles east.

it looks to me that in this case its pretty open and shut considering there is basically 1 dominant steering feature firmly anchored in the GOM.....the only question is how far south.

I have to disagree. Until almost an hour or so out, we were being told it was a cat 3 or 4 storm and then something just happened!!!!

no such thing as open and shut.

Read the Saffir-Simpson definition of cat three:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshs.shtml

Then go here:

http://photos.pensacolanewsjournal.com/

and scroll down and click on the galleries of Navarre and Navarre Beach.

They got hit by a category three storm...

I live just 20 minutes from there. WELL aware of the damage. But I thought we were talking storm track.....

up until noon friday we were being told (here at the AFB) to expect winds of 140mph with FWB being a direct hit. It didnt happen. I'm not complaining, but I'm just trying to emphasize the point that this isnt an exact science and that it is NEVER open and shut.

[N2Storms]

Dennis did not behave exactly according to plan when he crossed over Cuba and Emily is going to be over land even longer. I'm sure all of you experienced Cane watchers have seen some strange things occur once they interact with land. Given that plus we are still talking almost a week before it could impact the U.S. I would not set any predictions in concrete. Who knows what changes in the synoptic pattern may occur between now and then. Something from the EPAC could influence her, a vigorous system coming down from the Rockies could influence her. Too many variables to factor in right now. I stated yesterday and I still maintain today, anyone living on the Texas coastline should watch very, very closely.

[southerngale]

how can you assume it will hit mexico... although the models point that way. didnt the models point it at cuba a day ago?? it will change.

Did you read my entire post? I gave an example of how the forecast track is sometimes wrong, then just said that I assume it's going where they say until I hear otherwise or see a reason for it to change.

[hicksta]

ooo alright <3

[clfenwi]

how can you assume it will hit mexico... although the models point that way. didnt the models point it at cuba a day ago?? it will change.

The global forecast models that have had the best handle on Emily's future movement so far have kept Emily off of Cuba (and into the Yucatan) since Monday night/Tuesday morning.

The models that you are referring to are the limited area models. They have been highly sensitive to changes in Emily's course (or lack thereof). Their insistence on prematurely turning to Emily to the west-northwest / northwest have hurt their accuracy...

[stormie_skies]

This seems like such an incredibly silly argument....especially to be having in multiple threads...

This system is at LEAST 4-5 days away from landfall...how anyone thinks they can say with absolute certainty that the track of the storm will not change one bit in five days is completely beyond me....

Right now, the models and the NHC think Mexico is the most likely place for Em's final landfall. I think EVERYONE agrees on that. That said, we ALL should remember that neither we nor the NHC have been endowed with supernatural powers, and that THINGS CHANGE.

I'll bet many of the same people who are completely convinced of a second Mexican landfall are also the people who were saying New Orleans and the TX/LA border should look out 5 days.....heck, even 4 days....before Dennis made landfall. Those posts were made with the same amount of certainty and within the same time frame....but models aren't perfect, and neither are we. Lets all just remember that, and let our posts reflect it.

[/soapbox]

[rockyman]

Five day forecast for Ivan:

[hicksta]

great point. on ivan

[Rainband]

Way different setup with Ivan

[jasons2k]

Rockyman:

A picture says 1,000 words.......